Week ahead: UK, US inflation reports to add fuel to hike debate

14th Aug 2015 11:34

(ShareCast News) - Several data prints during the coming will add more fuel to debates about interest rates hikes in the UK and US, with inflation figures and Federal Reserve meeting minutes keenly viewed around the world.There will also be a focus on Japan as it begins the week with second quarter GDP numbers, before manufacturing and trade data are released on Asia's second-largest economy.Monday's flash GDP update is expected to show a decline of 0.5%, giving up some of the 1.0% growth in the first quarter.Tuesday sees UK producer, retail and consumer prices index (PPI, RPI and CPI) inflation. UK CPI inflation fell back to 0.0% yearly and monthly growth in June, while RPI was unchanged at 1.0% year-on-year.With oil prices around 9% lower in July than in June, but seemingly not yes passed on to the consumer, and trade-weighted sterling climbing around 1%, CPI is expected to be flat on a yearly basis and down 0.3% month-on-month, according to the median economist prediction and the Bank of England's August Inflation Report forecast.Other UK data in the week includes official retail sales data on Thursday and public finances on Friday.The US CPI reading on Wednesday offers "double-sided risks", according to HSBC, in light of rental price rises and falling airfares. Headline CPI is expected to rise 0.2% on a monthly and annual basis, with core CPI up 0.2% monthly and 1.8% yearly.The publication of minutes from the Federal Open Markets Committee on the same day will provide a more detailed view of the rate-setting group's attitudes at the July meeting, at which the FOMC introduced the new word 'some' regarding the required improvement in the labour market to trigger a first rate hike."This week's release of the minutes for the July meeting may set the tone for market expectations going into the September policy meeting," said HSBC. "The minutes might show that the Committee is still divided over the outlook for the timing of a first rate increase and that the majority want to await more data, or the minutes could suggest that a majority of the FOMC is ready to lift the range for the federal funds rate in September."Danske Bank said its interpretation of the introduction of the word 'some' was that "data now need to get worse to keep the Fed off the trigger while a continuation of the recent trend in data will be enough for the Fed to move along".Another item to watch for will be FOMC member John Williams, the San Francisco Fed president and a centrist in the committe, is due to speak on Thursday. "If Williams signals [a preference for a September hike] it is a sign that the general sentiment in the core of the FOMC is moving in favour of a September hike," Danske added.The week will also provide first indications on US manufacturing sentiment with the Philly Fed, Empire manufacturing index and the preliminary Markit PMI.Corporate reportingHousebuilder Bovis should be the focus on Monday. Analysts at Deutsche Bank said that with a pre-close at the start of July providing data on revenue, they believe Bovis' the result will likely focus on the detail of the P&L from PBT, updates on currenttrading and also land buying as a way of assessing future growth potential."Through to 2016, we forecast Bovis to show the increasing benefit of its growth strategy: the pull through of new land delivering strong improvement in ROCE, volumes and selling price. These levers combined with a stronger dividend, we believe, should lead to a re-rating of the stock."Sector peer Persimmon reports on Tuesday, also having reported robust volumes and selling prices in early July. DB forecasts the group to report 22% growth in EBIT to £260m for the half, with the market also likely to focus on currently trading, management guidance and the outlook for next year's dividend.Fellow FTSE 100 giant Glencore, which has seen its shares fall to a post-Xstrata merger low, is scheduled to publish interims on Wednesday, having just updated on production.Although its forecasts are above consensus, UBS expects adjusted EBITDA to tumble 23% to $5.0bn and clean net income to plunge 52% to $973m but the board to maintain its interim dividend at 6 cents a share. "We expect management to cut costs/ capex again and provide reassurance on marketing EBIT in H2."On same day, insurer Admiral Group also unveils its interims, with investors keen to hear if the stability in prices in the UK has continued during the first half.Broker Charles Stanley noted that recent data from the AA suggested car insurance premiums generally rose across the market in the second quarter. "Pressure on profits has led to speculation that the generous dividend may be cut so that will also be a focus for the market."But UBS predicted the dividend will only be cut 5% to 47p per share on forecasts of a 6% slip in pre-tax profit to £172m.Monday August 17INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSBalance of Trade (EU) (10:00), US Empire ManufacturingUS NAHB Housing Market IndexINTERIMSBovis Homes GroupGMSAzonto Petroleum Ltd (DI)EGMSJoint Stock Company Rosseti GDR (Each Repr 200 Ord) Reg SFINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATEStanley Gibbons GroupTuesday August 18UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSConsumer Price Index (09:30)Producer Price Index (09:30)Retail Price Index (09:30)INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSBuilding Permits (US) (13:30)Housing Starts (US) (13:30)INTERIMSAkers Biosciences, Inc, Alpha Pyrenees Trust Ltd., Chime Communications, H&T Group, Marshall Motor Holdings, Menzies(John), Persimmon, Wood Group (John)AGMSCastings, Puma Vct VII, Qannas Investments Limited (DI), World Trust FundFINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATETelecom PlusWednesday August 19INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSBalance of Payments (EU) (09:00)Consumer Price Index (US) (13:30)Crude Oil Inventories (US) (15:30)Current Account (EU) (09:00)FOMC Interest Rate Minutes (US) (19:00)MBA Mortgage Applications (US) (12:00)INTERIMSAdmiral Group, Glencore , Hikma Pharmaceuticals, Hochschild Mining, Inspired Energy, MirLand Development Corporation, Plaza Centers NVIMSSImperial Tobacco GroupINTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATEShoe ZoneEGMSGlobal Invacom Group Limited (DI)AGMSGeneral IndustriesFINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATEBacit Limited, HalmaThursday August 20UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSCBI Industrial Trends Surveys (11:00)Internet Retail Sales (09:30)Retail Sales (09:30)INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSContinuing Claims (US) (13:30)Existing Home Sales (US) (15:00)Initial Jobless Claims (US) (13:30)Leading Indicators (US) (15:00)Philadelphia Fed Index (US) (15:00)Producer Price Index (GER) (07:00)Q2New World Resources A SharesFINALSRank GroupINTERIMSCostain Group, Eurasia Drilling Co Ltd GDR (Reg S), Kaz Minerals, Mail.ru Group Ltd GDR (Reg S), New World Resources A Shares, Phoenix Group Holdings (DI), PJSC Cherkizovo Group GDR (Reg S), Polypipe Group, Premier Oil, Primary Health Properties, Sanne Group, Sportech, Stock Spirits Group , TT ElectronicsINTERIM EX-DIVIDEND DATEBritish American Tobacco, Dairy Farm International Holdings Ltd (Bermuda), Dairy Farm International Holdings Ltd. (Jersey), Dairy Farm International Holdings Ltd. (Singapore), FDM Group (Holdings), Fidessa Group, Hammerson, Henderson Opportunities Trust, Hongkong Land Holding Ltd. (Bermuda), Hongkong Land Holding Ltd. (Jersey), Hongkong Land Holding Ltd. (Sing.Reg), Jardine Matheson Holdings Ltd (Singapore Reg), Jardine Matheson Holdings Ltd. (Bermuda), Jardine Matheson Holdings Ltd. (Jersey), Jardine Strategic Holdingd Ltd. (Bermuda), Jardine Strategic Holdings Ltd. (Singapore), Mandarin Oriental International (Bermuda), Mandarin Oriental International (Jersey), Mandarin Oriental International (Singapore), Mobeus Income & Growth 4 Vct, Mobeus Income & Growth Vct, Mondi, Partnership Assurance Group , Prudential, Quartix Holdings , Secure Trust Bank, SEGRO, Taylor Wimpey, VPC Specialty Lending InvestmentsQUARTERLY PAYMENT DATEFair Oaks Income Fund Limited , SQN Asset Finance Income Fund LimitedQUARTERLY EX-DIVIDEND DATEBrunner Inv Trust, Carnival, M Winkworth, Raven Russia Ltd. Cum Red Pref Shares, Utilico Investments Ltd (DI)SPECIAL EX-DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATELindsell Train Inv TrustAGMSMarimedia (DI)FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATEDevelopment SecuritiesFINAL EX-DIVIDEND DATEAberdeen Private Equity Fund Ltd. Sterling Part Shares, First Property Group, JPMorgan Brazil Inv Trust , Lindsell Train Inv Trust, Northgate, PHSC, red24, World Trust FundFriday August 21 UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSPublic Sector Finances (09:30)INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSConsumer Confidence Indicator (EU) (10:00)GFK Consumer Confidence (GER) (07:00)INTERIMSTritax Big Box ReitINTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATEBlackrock Throgmorton Trust, Blue Capital Global Reinsurance Fund Ltd (DI), One Media IP Group, Triple Point Income VCTGMS88 Energy Limited (DI), ReNeuron GroupANNUAL REPORTAbbeyAGMSIona Environmental VCTFINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATEAtkins (WS), Castings, Cayenne Trust, Datang International Power Generation Co Ltd., Heath (Samuel) & Sons, Immunodiagnostic Systems Holdings, Scapa Group