Week ahead: Stage set for service sector PMIs and BoE

1st Mar 2013 16:56

The coming week will see the economic data flow ease up, although there are plenty of potentially market-moving events to watch out for. Foremost amongst those will be the monthly US employment report on Friday. It comes as investors are watching to see if consumption holds up Stateside following the elimination of the payroll-tax cut and given the current moderate uncertainty surrounding the effects of 'sequestration.' Nearly as important as the above, if not much more so, on Thursday investors will be awaiting the results of the latest policy meetings of the Bank of England (BoE) and the European Central Bank (ECB). Neither central bank is expected to make a move, but in the aftermath of the release of the minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee´s (MPC´s) last meeting the chances of a move later in the year have increased, Investec believes. For their part, and as regards the MPC´s meeting, over at Barclays they are of the opinion that "the unexpected drop in the manufacturing PMI is probably not enough to tip the balance towards more QE next week, but a weak services PMI could do the trick." The latest remarks out of the ECB have also been rather dovish of late. Traders will be watching to see if the latest bout of uncertainty in Italy left its footprint on the ECB Governing Council´s policy bias. The Eurozone´s monetary authority may use its latest growth and inflation forecasts to signal that a cut in interest rates is now more likely. Certainly, Credit Suisse at least sees that possibility. Data on any ECB weekly bond purchases may also be worth watching out for, indicate analysts at Digital Look.On Tuesday China will convene the first annual session of the 12th National People's Congress (NPC), which may shed light on the country´s economic strategy for 2013. Japan and Australia will also be holding their own rate meetings. The Eurogroup - as the grouping of the Eurozone´s finance ministers is known - will also meet on Tuesday, with the latest events in Italy and a possible 'bail-out' for Cyprus expected to be high on the agenda. As well, the extension of some countries' budget deficit targets may be discussed. Lastly, some investors will also be anxiously awaiting a barrage of economic statistics which are slated for release next Saturday, in the People´s Republic of China.HSBC will publish its annual results on Monday, March 4th. Credit Suisse is forecasting that the lender will report 'clean' earnings per share (EPS) of 102c, after adjusting for a number of exceptional items. There will be focus on cost savings targets - although the Swiss broker expects little on this front for now - but the key will be commentary on capital build and return. The sale of its operations in Panama, the 46th sale/closure by the bank, should see the lender bag a capital gain of approximately $1.4bn. When HSBC hits a fully loaded Basel 3 ratio of 12% these analysts believe that it will look to step-up capital return to investors. Its capital ratio should have ended the year at 10.3% and a dividend pay-out of 45c is forecast, adds the Swiss broker.Analysts at Panmure Gordon expect Serco to maintain a positive stance, although a mixed trading picture is anticipated, with the US continuing to face revenue and margin pressures, while the global BPO generation will be a key focus of these results. "Our assumptions look to be more conservative vs. consensus, reflecting our view that the global BPO business may well change the dynamics here," they explain. However, they are quick to add that the firm is well positioned to deliver above-average organic growth, and should continue to improve its margins.Monday March 04INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATEStavert ZigomalaINTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSPMI Construction (EU) (09:00)PMI Construction (GER) (08:55)Producer Price Index (EU) (10:00)GMSDatatec Ltd. (DI), RedstoneFINALSAmlin, British Polythene Industries, CLS Holdings, FBD Holdings, HSBC Holdings, Intertek Group, Keller Group, Sagentia Group, Ultra Electronics HoldingsIMSSCity of London Investment GroupAGMSEmblaze Ltd., Jersey Electricity 'A' Shares, JPMorgan Russian SecuritiesUK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSPMI Construction (09:30)FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATEFenner, Renew HoldingsTuesday March 05INTERIMSAbcam, Interior Services GroupINTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSISM Non-Manufacturing (US) (15:00)ISM Services (US) (15:00)PMI Composite (EU) (09:00)PMI Composite (GER) (08:55)PMI Services (EU) (09:00)PMI Services (GER) (08:55)Retail Sales (EU) (10:00)ECOFIN meeting (EU) (08:00)Q3Ashtead GroupQ4OAO Severstal GDR (Reg S)FINALS4Imprint Group, Breedon Aggregates Ltd., Johnson Service Group, Macfarlane Group, Meggitt, Menzies(John), MHP SA GDR (Reg S), Michael Page International, Moneysupermarket.com Group, OAO Severstal GDR (Reg S), Pace, Paddy Power, Regus, Rotork, Serco Group, Total Produce, Tullett Prebon, Wood Group (John), ZotefoamsAGMSBlackrock Frontiers Investment TrustTRADING ANNOUNCEMENTSBreedon Aggregates Ltd.UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSBRC Sales Monitor (00:01)Official Reserves (09:30)PMI Composite (09:30)PMI Services (09:30)Wednesday March 06INTERIMSHangar 8INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATECohort, Stagecoach GroupINTERIM EX-DIVIDEND DATEAlumasc Group, BHP Billiton, Centaur Media, Clinigen Group, Colefax Group, Darty, Gleeson (M J) Group, Hansard Global, Hargreaves Services, Hays, JPMorgan Mid Cap Inv Trust, Jupiter Primadona Growth Trust, Kier Group, Oxford Instruments, Park Group, Renishaw, Ricardo, Ruffer Investment Company Ltd Red PTG Pref Shares, Utilico Investments Ltd (DI)QUARTERLY EX-DIVIDEND DATEDuet Real Estate Finance Ltd, Premier Energy & Water Trust, Real Estate Credit Investments PCC LtdINTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSBeige Book Fed Survey (US) (19:00)Crude Oil Inventories (US) (15:30)Factory Orders (US) (15:00)GDP (1st release) (EU) (10:00)MBA Mortgage Applications (US) (12:00)Q4Endeavor International Corp.FINALSAdmiral Group, Advanced Medical Solutions Group, Belgravium Technologies, Chime Communications, Costain Group, Dignity, Endeavor International Corp., Fisher (James) & Sons, Legal & General Group, Lookers, Management Consulting Group, Melrose Industries, MoneySwap, Sportech, SQS Software Quality Systems AG, Tarsus Group, Unite GroupSPECIAL EX-DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATEQannas Investments Ltd, Utilico Investments Ltd (DI)AGMSCQS Rig Finance Fund Ltd.UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSBRC Shop Price Index (00:01)FINAL EX-DIVIDEND DATEBaronsmead VCT 4, BlackRock World Mining Trust, Brewin Dolphin Holdings, CRH, Direct Line Insurance Group, Domino Printing Sciences, Electronic Data Processing, Jupiter Fund Management , Lavendon Group, Rio Tinto, Sanderson Group, Spirent Communications, St. Modwen Properties, SVM Global Fund, SWP Group, Town Centre Securities, TUI TravelThursday March 07INTERIMSIndigoVision GroupINTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATEPenna ConsultingINTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSBloomberg Consumer Confidence (US) (13:45)Consumer Credit (US) (20:00)Continuing Claims (US) (13:30)Factory Orders (GER) (11:00)Initial Jobless Claims (US) (13:30)Spanish Treasury debt auction (09:45)Q4Shin Kong Financial Holdings Co Ltd GDR (Reg S), X5 Retail Group NV GDR (Reg S)FINALSAviva, Avocet Mining, Balfour Beatty, Cineworld Group, Clarkson, Cobham, Communisis, Dairy Farm International Holdings Ltd. (Singapore), Futura Medical, Fyffes, Grafton Group Units, H&T Group, Hongkong Land Holding Ltd. (Sing.Reg), Hunting, IMI, Inmarsat, Irish Continental Group Units, Mandarin Oriental International (Singapore), Nichols, Novae Group, Schroders, Schroders (Non-Voting), Shin Kong Financial Holdings Co Ltd GDR (Reg S), SIG, Spirax-Sarco Engineering, Standard Life, X5 Retail Group NV GDR (Reg S)ANNUAL REPORTAlpha UK Multi Property Trust, X5 Retail Group NV GDR (Reg S)AGMSAberforth Smaller Companies Trust, Aluminium Bahrain B.S.C. GDR (Reg S), Electra Private Equity, LPA Group, SilverdellUK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSBoE Interest Rate Decision (12:00)ECB Interest Rate (EU) (12:45)Halifax House Price Index (09:30)Friday March 08INTERIMSMarshallsINTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATECPL Resources, Daejan HoldingsQUARTERLY PAYMENT DATEBoeing Co, Lilly (Eli) & CoINTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSIndustrial Production (GER) (11:00)Non-Farm Payrolls (US) (13:30)Unemployment Rate (US) (13:30)Wholesale Inventories (US) (15:00)Export-Import data (China) FINALSAga Rangemaster Group, Jardine Matheson Holdings Ltd (Singapore Reg), Jardine Strategic Holdingd Ltd. (Singapore)ANNUAL REPORTSeniorIMSSSThreeSPECIAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATEPhoto-Me InternationalEGMSCarpathian, Talvivaara Mining Company (CDI)AGMSBlackRock Commodities Income Inv TrustFINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATEBlackrock Frontiers Investment Trust, Blackrock Income And Growth Investment Trust, Pressure Technologies, Sage Group, TreattUK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSKPMG/REC report on Jobs