Week Ahead: BP, Xstrata and quantitative easing

3rd Feb 2012 14:08

With Royal Dutch Shell's results out of the way, attention turns to its perennial rival, BP, which issues a fourth quarter update on Tuesday.Broker Charles Stanley thinks fourth quarter net income will be $4.8bn, down from $5.2bn the year before. The controversial oil leviathan outlined a 10-point plan at the time of its third quarter (Q3) results, and Charles Stanley will be looking for "more transparency and detail on segmental results and more financial details with the Q4 results."BP is still toiling in the shadow of the Gulf of Mexico oil well disaster, and recently received a setback in a Louisiana court in its efforts to get Transocean to stump up what BP says is the full share of the oil rig leasing firm's tab for the claims arising from the pollution caused by the explosion of the Deepwater Horizon rig.On the positive side, fears that the British company would have to quit the Gulf of Mexico art the behest of the US authorities have proved unfounded."The Gulf of Mexico remains an important asset for BP and although the decline of oil & gas volumes may have stabilised, it may be 2013 before BP returns to historic levels of output in the Gulf. We do not anticipate any change to the quarterly dividend though BP may feel more confident about its financial position after reducing debt and receiving some contributions to the oil spill costs from partners such as Mitsui, Anadarko and Cameron," Charles Stanley analyst Tony Shepard said.Anglo-Swiss mining giant Xstrata has been in the spotlight recently after it emerged that it is in talks with its major shareholder, Anglo-Swiss commodities trader Glencore, about a merger of equals. The company announces full year results on Tuesday, and Credit Suisse is forecasting earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) of $11.3bn and earnings per share (EPS) of $1.87, in line with the market consensus. It does, however, see some upside potential following solid production numbers announced on the last day of January."We expect the market to focus closely on any commentary around capex [capital expenditure] inflation and project approvals. Las Bambas is the major project where capex is under review; however, we do not expect an update until later this year. Any commentary suggesting a more selective to approach to project growth and capex would be well received by the market in our view," Credit Suisse said. On Thursday, the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will announce whether there are to be any changes to the Bank's key lending rate (market says: no) but the pundits are less certain about whch way the committee will jump on its asset purchase (quantitative easing) programme. MPC member Adam Posen nailed his colours to the mast in an interview recently, saying he was leaning towards voting for more quantitative easing (i.e. asset purchases) if the growth outlook for the UK economy remains unchanged, although he did acknowledge that he was "slightly more optimistic" about the prospects for the UK economy than he was a few months ago.Monday February 06INTERIMSAllocate SoftwareINTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATEBT Group, Mitie GroupINTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSPMI Construction (GER) (08:55)Q4Randgold Resources Ltd.GMSHot Tuna InternationalFINALSRandgold Resources Ltd., RMUK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSNew Car Registrations (09:30)FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATEImpax Asset Management Group, Scottish Inv Trust, Standard Life European Private Equity TrustTuesday February 07INTERIMSSabien Technology GroupINTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATEJohnson Matthey, Workspace GroupINTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSConsumer Credit (US) (20:00)Industrial Production (GER) (11:00)Q4BP, GlaxoSmithKline, Torchmark Corp., Wolfson MicroelectronicsFINALSBeazley, BP, GlaxoSmithKline, Low & Bonar, St. Modwen Properties, Torchmark Corp., Wolfson Microelectronics, XstrataANNUAL REPORTProventecIMSS888 HoldingsAGMSPressure Technologies, TUI Travel, United Drug, VictrexTRADING ANNOUNCEMENTSBellwayUK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSBRC Sales Monitor (00:01)Q1TUI TravelWednesday February 08INTERIMSBHP Billiton, Dunelm Group, Stagecoach Theatre ArtsINTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATEAshtead Group, HalmaINTERIM EX-DIVIDEND DATECity of London Investment Group, Cohort, Core VCT 'B' Shares, CPL Resources, Foresight 3 VCT, Foresight 4 VCT, Ingenious Entertainment VCT 1, Ingenious Entertainment VCT 1 'C' Shares, Ingenious Entertainment VCT 1 'D' Shares, Ingenious Entertainment VCT 2, Ingenious Entertainment VCT 2 'C' Shares, Ingenious Entertainment VCT 2 'D' Shares, Ingenious Live VCT 1, Ingenious Live VCT 2, Mattioli Woods, Murgitroyd Group, Stagecoach GroupQUARTERLY EX-DIVIDEND DATEIBM Corp., JPMorgan Claverhouse Inv Trust, Picton Property Income Ltd, Polar Capital Global Healthcare Growth & Income TrustINTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSBalance of Trade (GER) (07:00)Crude Oil Inventories (US) (15:30)Current Account (GER) (07:00)Factory Orders (GER) (11:00)MBA Mortgage Applications (US) (12:00)Retail Price Index (GER) (07:00)Q4Smurfit Kappa Group, Virgin Media Inc.GMSEnviron Group (Investments) , Sunkar ResourcesFINALSInternational Power, New Europe Property Investments, Reckitt Benckiser Group, Smurfit Kappa Group, Virgin Media Inc.IMSSDaily Mail and General Trust, Grainger, Supergroup, Thomas Cook GroupEGMSThames River Multi Hedge PCC Ltd. Realisation SharesAGMSDaily Mail and General Trust, Future, Grainger, Thomas Cook GroupUK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSBRC Shop Price Index (00:01)FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATEEdinburgh Worldwide Inv TrustFINAL EX-DIVIDEND DATEAvon Rubber, Henderson Opportunities Trust, Manroy, Sage Group, Victrex, ZytronicThursday February 09INTERIMSAquarius Platinum Ltd., Diageo, Hargreaves Lansdown, Rank GroupINTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSBloomberg Consumer Confidence (US) (14:45)Continuing Claims (US) (13:30)ECB Interest Rate (EU) (12:45)Initial Jobless Claims (US) (13:30)Wholesales Inventories (US) (15:00)Q3British Land CoQ4BG Group, Polski Koncern Naftowy Orlen S.A. GDR(Reg S), Shire PlcFINALSBG Group, Catlin Group Ltd., Polski Koncern Naftowy Orlen S.A. GDR(Reg S), Rio Tinto, Rolls-Royce Holdings, Shire PlcIMSSEnterprise Inns, Metric Property Investments , Vodafone Group, VolexAGMSEnterprise Inns, Greencore Group, Income & Growth VCT , Paragon Group Of CompaniesUK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSBalance of Trade (09:30)BoE Interest Rate Decision (12:00)Industrial Production (09:30)Manufacturing Production (09:30)UK Trade (09:30)FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATECardiff Property, Dunedin Smaller Companies Inv Trust, Euromoney Institutional InvestorFriday February 10INTERIMSEurocommercial Properties NVINTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATEICAP, UmecoINTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSBalance of Trade (US) (13:30)Consumer Price Index (GER) (07:00)Treasury Budget Statement (US) (19:00)U. of Michigan Confidence (Prelim) (US) (15:00)FINALSBarclays, Proventec, Zenergy PowerIMSSCable & Wireless Communications, Flybe Group, ShaftesburySPECIAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATEJuridica Investments Ltd.AGMSGCP Infrastructure Investments Ltd., ShaftesburyUK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSProducer Price Indices (09:30)FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATEBritvic, Daily Mail and General Trust, Daily Mail and General Trust 'Ord' Shares, Grainger, JPMorgan Asian Inv Trust, NB Global Floating Rate Income Fund Ltd Red C shs $, NB Global Floating Rate Income Fund Ltd Red C shs £, Scottish Oriental Smaller Companies Trust