Size of next Fed rate hike not yet decided, Powell says

8th Mar 2023 16:33

(Sharecast News) - Jerome Powell told US lawmakers that no decision had as yet been taken regarding the size of the potential rate hike at the central bank's 21-22 March policy meeting.

On his second day of testimony before the US Congress, the head of the Federal Reserve Bank said: "We have not made any decision about the March meeting. We're not going to do that until we see the additional data."

More importantly, he added, the monetary authority was not on a "pre-set path".

"We will be guided by the incoming data and the evolving outlook."

Worth noting, the February non-farm payrolls report was due out on 10 March, followed by consumer and wholesale price data for that same month on 14 and 15 March, respectively.

Other economic releases due out between now and the next Fed meeting might also inform their decision making.

In the background, as of Wednesday afternoon, Fed funds futures were assigning a roughly 70% probability to a 50 basis point interest rate hike at the March meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, according to the CME's Fed Watch Live tool.

Historically, Fed futures were more precise when the odds assigned to an outcome were at or above 80%.

That meant that while the chances of a 50bp hike had risen very significantly over just the past few weeks, traders were not yet quite certain about it.