Week ahead: Taylor Wimpey, Spirit Pub Company

11th Jan 2013 20:54

Financial markets remain fixated on the US fiscal cliff and its effects on the economy. In the end a solution is expected, but the question remains whether Congress will 'play it to the wire' again, or worse. Simply put, markets do not quite know whether to 'look through' that uncertainty, or not. Hence - perhaps - the recent grudging pace of advance in equity markets, although the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision's decision to relax banks' liquidity requirements seems to have helped to steady some nerves. Thus, and assuming a lack of news (and progress) on the fiscal front next week, investors will be left to gauge how the US economy is holding up despite the uncertainty. With that in mind, markets will be watching Thursday's Philadelphia Federal Reserve manufacturing survey data for January and Friday's reading on consumer confidence from the University of Michigan.As well, the US corporate reporting season will build up a head of steam, with 34 S&P 500 companies expected to release results.Meantime, and in the UK, Friday's retail sales data would seem to be the most relevant economic indicator to watch. Nevertheless, the most talked about one may well turn out to be Tuesday's reading on consumer prices. Economists at Investec envisage the CPI measure climbing above 3% into 'letter writing' territory later during the year. Together with recent weak reading in the economy any higher than expected figures could put the government in a very difficult position, precisely at the moment when it needs the most room for manoeuvre on the policy front.In the RPI data the MIPs component will be of interest after the sharp fall in November. This could be evidence of the Funding for Lending Scheme leading to lower interest rate charges, Credit Suisse points out. A speech by US Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S.Bernanke, on Monday night, may also be worth following given recent signs of differences of opinion amongst policy makers at the US central bank.As well, the above debate is related to the quandary facing the Bank of England in its efforts to keep the UK economy on an even keel, which at least in the short-term has the unwelcome side-effect of contributing to elevated consumer prices. In the Eurozone, and given the recent weak news-flow regarding the German economy, Tuesday's German GDP data may merit watching. Thursday's monthly ECB bulletin will be watched to see if it tows the same line as Mario Draghi at his last press conference, when he seemed to take any rate cuts off the table. Finally, towards the end of the week the Spanish Treasury will hold another debt auction, which may see periphery risk premiums reduced further if successful. Germans in the Land of Saxony will head to the polls on Sunday. Monday will see home builder Taylor Wimpey provide an update on its 2012 fiscal year trading. This should shed further light on the pace of margin growth and the ability of the management to secure higher margin land. It will be of interest to see if the company again points to a positive sales carry-over into 2013, particularly as many of its peers are due to provide their own updates later in the week. On Tuesday January 15th it will be the turn of Spirit Pub Company, who is due to issue its IMS. Panmure Gordon expects the group to report continued solid trading benefiting from a fairly strong Christmas and New Year trading period offsetting more difficult trading in October and November. When the group last updated the market managed pub like-for-like (LFL) sales were +4.8%, but Panmure's analysts expect this to have moderated to approximately 3%.Furthermore, the broker expects tenanted and leased pub LFL net income to remain at close to 5% as the final phase of rent rebasing takes effect. Consensus expectations are for profit before tax (PBT) of £56.7m (6.5p EPS) for fiscal year 2013.Monday January 14INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATEBritish Smaller Companies VCTINTERIM EX-DIVIDEND DATETongaat-Hulett Ltd.QUARTERLY PAYMENT DATEYamana Gold Inc.INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSHarmonised Competitiveness Indicators (EU) (09:00)GMSAsia Digital Holdings, IPSO VenturesIMSSBig Yellow Group, Greene KingTRADING ANNOUNCEMENTSHydrogen Group, Taylor WimpeyFINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATEBarloworld Ltd.Tuesday January 15INTERIMSIG Group HoldingsINTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATEAlliance Pharma, MDM Engineering Group Ltd. (DI)INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSBusiness Inventories (US) (13:30)Consumer Price Index (EU) (10:00)Consumer Price Index (GER) (07:00)Retail Sales (US) (14:45)IMSSHalfords GroupAGMSConygar Investment Company, Spirit Pub CompanyTRADING ANNOUNCEMENTSBrown (N.) Group, Burberry Group, Michael Page InternationalUK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSBalance of Trade (09:30)Producer Price Index  (09:30)Wednesday January 16INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATEJPMorgan Euro Small Co. Trust, National Grid, Ventus 2 VCT, Ventus 2 VCT 'C' Shares, Ventus VCT, Ventus VCT 'C' SharesINTERIM EX-DIVIDEND DATEACM Shipping Group, Ashtead Group, Central Asia Metals, Consort Medical, QinetiQ GroupQUARTERLY PAYMENT DATEAfrica Opportunity Fund Ltd.QUARTERLY EX-DIVIDEND DATEF&C Commercial Property Trust Ltd., Middlefield Canadian Income PCCINTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSBeige Book Fed Survey (US) (19:00)Consumer Price Index (US) (13:30)Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (EU) (10:00)Industrial Production (US) (16:15)New Car Registrations (EU) (10:00)GMSSerabi GoldIMSSBrown (N.) Group, C&C Group, Diploma, Experian, Wetherspoon (J.D.)DRILLING REPORTFresnilloSPECIAL EX-DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATECentral Asia Metals, Dewhurst, Dewhurst (Non-Voting)AGMSDiploma, Majedie InvestmentsTRADING ANNOUNCEMENTSBarratt DevelopmentsFINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATEBellwayFINAL EX-DIVIDEND DATECardiff Property, CareTech Holding, Catco Reinsurance Opportunities Fund Ltd (DI), Character Group, Dewhurst, Dewhurst (Non-Voting), Downing Income Vct, Downing Income Vct 4, Dunedin Smaller Companies Inv Trust, Imperial Tobacco Group, TracsisThursday January 17INTERIMSNCC GroupINTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATEHyder Consulting, red24, Sweett GroupINTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSBudget Statement (US) (19:00)Consumer Price Index (EU) (10:00)ECB Report (EU) (09:00)Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (EU) (10:00)Housing Starts (US) (13:30)Philadelphia Fed Index (US) (15:00)Wholesale Price Index (GER) (07:00)GMSDartyIMSSAberdeen Asset Management, Associated British Foods, Home Retail GroupAGMSAberdeen Asset ManagementTRADING ANNOUNCEMENTSComputacenter, Dixons Retail FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATESportingbetFriday January 18INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATEAcal, Tarsus Group, UK Mail Group GMSSPARK VenturesTRADING ANNOUNCEMENTSBovis Homes Group, Record, SpectrisUK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSRetail Sales (09:30)FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATEBaronsmead VCT, Baronsmead VCT 2, Carr's Milling Industries, K3 Business Technology Group, Northamber