Week Ahead: Ladbrokes, N. Brown, Punch

8th Oct 2010 09:10

A week after online betting exchange Betfair announced plans to float on the London stock exchange old school bookie Ladbrokes updates the market with its interim management statement.The last time we heard from the company, back in August, the news was not great, as the company warned of a challenging consumer environment.On Wednesday online sports betting specialist Sportingbet issued an upbeat trading statement so things may have improved for the bookmaking fraternity since Ladbroke's gloomy August statement. Along with its perennial rival William Hill, Ladbrokes has expressed an interest in taking over the Tote when the government gets round to selling it off, though any bid to do so may fall foul of competition rules.Ralph Topping, chief executive of William Hill, has already railed against the "archaic" competition rules that effectively limit the opportunities for the bookies who have a strong high street presence to expand their physical estate. "We believe that the Office of Fair Trading needs to revisit the archaic competition tests which have looked at the market in terms of betting shops - the true market is a global one that includes online and betting exchanges," Topping said.After the bookies we move on to the pub and a preview of the final results from Punch Taverns, the first set of figures released under the helmsmanship of new boss Ian Dyson.The heavily indebted pubs group raised full year profits guidance back in August after trading improved in the final quarter of the company's fiscal year. Like for like sales in the 12 weeks to mid-August were up 2.6% year on year.Market consensus is for profit before tax of £131m on sales of £1,274m. The company recently hosted a "meet the new chief executive officer" day for investment analysts and clearly left a favourable impression on KBC Peel Hunt. "There is a positive spirit in this company that is tangible, and this was also in evidence at the analysts' trip around the managed estate three weeks ago, which focused on the value of the reinvestment process," the broker said. "What has been achieved is remarkable. Punch's securitised tenancies could be allowed to default, and there is still value in the managed pubs less relevant debt, plus cash that has accumulated at the parent company. We will be looking at our valuations as this approach suggests value could be significantly higher than the existing 85p share price," it added. "Whether Dyson actually presses the button on this is the biggest question in his in-tray. The other major question he faces whether he asks the bondholders for compensation for protecting the securitised tenancies from default. We expect these issues to feature strongly in the 12 October finals, which should prompt renewed momentum in the share price," Peel Hunt opined.Internet and catalogue home shopping company N. Brown should continue on its growth path with its interim results, though the pace of growth is likely to have slowed.Panmure Gordon thinks underlying earnings before interest and tax will be 1.1% higher than last year at £46.0m, while profit before tax should advance by 2.4% to £42.8m. On those figures Panmure Gordon calculates earnings per share of 11.6p, up 5.1%. "We expect an interim dividend of 5.6p (+27.6%)," the broker predicted.Sales are forecast to hit £349.5m, up 3.2% on a year earlier. "Clothing macro data have been strong in the period to date. N. Brown customers' income streams are likely to be less affected, relatively, than other retailers' by rising interest rates (less exposed to mortgages) and unemployment," is Panmure Gordon's view.The gross margin may be subject to some erosion, however, with the broker suggesting it could deteriorate by one-fifth of a percentage point to 52.9%, as trailed in the firm's July statement."The outlook for bad debts will be key: in July, management were able to report continuing stabilisation in metrics such as bad debt as a percentage of turnover and percentage of accounts in arrears. Moving from stabilisation to improvement would immediately benefit the P&L [profit & loss]. However, our assumption for H2 2011E [estimate of second half earnings for fiscal 2011] is similar to H1 2011E, and this is where we think N. Brown could provide a positive surprise for the market," Panmure Gordon said.Monday October 11INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATEArbuthnot Banking Group, Jupiter European Opportunities Trust, Tex HoldingsQUARTERLY PAYMENT DATEAfrica Opportunity Fund Ltd., Alpha Pyrenees Trust Ltd.GMSAsia Digital Holdings, Stellar DiamondsFINALSNautical Petroleum, YouGovIMSSLadbrokes, Travis PerkinsSPECIAL EX-DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATEDignityAGMSThe Indian Film Company, Trinity CapitalTRADING ANNOUNCEMENTSE2V Technologies, X5 Retail Group GDR (Reg S)FINAL EX-DIVIDEND DATEMedusa MiningINTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSIndustrial Production (FRA) (07:45)Manufacturing Output (FRA) (07:45)Tuesday October 12INTERIMSBrown (N.) Group, C&C Group, Summit CorporationINTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATECapita Group, ChesnaraQUARTERLY PAYMENT DATEXP PowerINTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSConsumer Confidence (JPN)Consumer Price Index (GER) (07:00)Current Account (FRA) (07:45)FOMC Interest Rate Minutes (US) (19:00)ABC Consumer Confidence (US) (22:00)GMSACTA, Aurum Mining, Leisure & GamingFINALSAir Partner, Asian Citrus, Imperial Innovations, Punch TavernsAGMSInvesco Perpetual AiM VCT, M&G Equity Inv Trust Capital Shares, M&G Equity Inv Trust Income Shares, Orosur Mining Inc., Standard Life UK Smaller Companies TrustUK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSBRC Sales Monitor (00:01)RICS House Price Balance (00:01)Balance of Trade (09:30)DCLG House Prices (09:30)Consumer Price Index (09:30)Retail Price Index (09:30)FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATEColefax Group, IG Group HoldingsWednesday October 13INTERIMSDatatec Ltd. (DI), Walker GreenbankINTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATECPP Group, Dairy Farm International (Singapore), Hongkong Land Holding Ltd. (Singapore), Jardine Matheson (Singapore), Jardine Strategic (Singapore), KBC Advanced Technologies, Lancashire Holdings, Restaurant Group, Wellstream HoldingsINTERIM EX-DIVIDEND DATEAll Leisure Group, Ashley (Laura) Holding, British American Inv Trust, Camellia, Cobham, Forth Ports, Johnson Service Group, Kerry Group 'A', Matrix Income & Growth 4 VCT, Maven Income and Growth VCT 2 , Old Mutual, Rightmove, Spirax-Sarco Engineering, Staffline Group, STM Group, Tesco, TT Electronics, Yule CattoQUARTERLY EX-DIVIDEND DATEF&C Commercial Property Trust, Henderson Global Property Companies Ltd., Investors Capital Trust 'A' SharesINTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSM3 Money Supply (JPN)Machine Orders (JPN)Consumer Price Index (FRA) (06:30)Industrial Production (EU) (10:00)MBA Mortgage Applications (US) (12:00)Import and Export Price Indices (US) (13:30)Crude Oil Inventories (US) (15:30)Treasury Budget Statement (US) (19:00)Q3JP Morgan ChaseGMSACTA, Northern Venture TrustSPECIAL EX-DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATEQuayle MunroEGMSMeikles LdAGMSAvingtrans, Goodwin Plc, Haynes Publishing GroupTRADING ANNOUNCEMENTSBurberry GroupUK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSClaimant Count Rate (09:30)Unemployment Rate (09:30)Average Weekly Earnings (09:30)ILO Unemployment Rate (09:30)FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATEAirsprung GroupFINAL EX-DIVIDEND DATEDaejan Holdings, Eaga, Epicure Qatar Equity Opportunities, Hargreaves Services, Henderson EuroTrust, Quayle Munro, System C Healthcare, Wilmington GroupThursday October 14INTERIMSBooker GroupINTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATEDavis Service Group, Hikma Pharmaceuticals, Macfarlane Group, Molins, United Business Media, ZotefoamsQUARTERLY PAYMENT DATEYamana Gold IncINTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSConsumer Goods Price Index (JPN)Machine Tool Orders (JPN)ECB Report (EU) (09:00)Balance of Trade (US) (13:30)Continuing Claims (US) (13:30)Initial Jobless Claims (US) (13:30)Producer Price Index (US) (13:30)Crude Oil Inventories (US) (15:30)Q3Rio TintoGMSCoal of Africa Limited, HydroDec GroupFINALSClinton Cards, WH SmithANNUAL REPORTClinton CardsIMSSAshmore Group, Eaga, RenishawAGMSCoal of Africa Limited, Diageo, Eaga, Electric & General Inv Trust, Encore Oil, Mattioli Woods, Monitise, RenishawTRADING ANNOUNCEMENTSMothercare, Rio TintoUK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSNationwide Consumer Confidence (01:00)Friday October 15INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATEBraime Ord, Charlemagne Capital, Chime Communications, Communisis, Computacenter, Drax Group, G4S, H & T Group, Hellenic Carriers, IMI, International Public Partnerships Ltd., IS Solutions, JKX Oil & Gas, Lavendon Group, Logica, Networkers International, Pennant International, Phoenix Group Holdings, Public Service Properties Investments, Sagicor Financial Corporation, Serco Group, TF & JH Braime, Tikit, Treatt, UTV MediaQUARTERLY PAYMENT DATEM WinkworthINTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSIndustrial Production (JPN)Monthly Budget Report (US) Wholesale Price Index (GER) (07:00)Balance of Trade (EU) (10:00)Consumer Price Index (EU) (10:00)Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (EU) (10:00)Business Inventories (US) (13:30)Consumer Price Index (US) (13:30)Retail Sales (US) (13:30)Empire State Manufacturing Survey (13:30)Retail Sales Inventories (US) (15:15)U. of Michigan Confidence (US) (15:00)GMSCoburg Group, Electronic Data Processing, GuocoLeisure LimitedSPECIAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATECharlemagne Capital, Dignity, H & T Group, Harvard InternationalEGMSAtlas Estates, Subex Azure GDR (Reg S)AGMSCoburg Group, Crystal Amber Fund, Epicure Qatar Equity Opportunities, GuocoLeisure LimitedTRADING ANNOUNCEMENTSChrysalis, RecordFINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATEBest of the Best, Dart Group, Goodwin Plc, Jacques Vert, Standard Life UK Smaller Companies Trust, Stewart & Wight