Week ahead: BP, Stagecoach, Caretech

30th Nov 2012 17:01

Although December tends to be one of the best months of the year for stocks next week's calendar comes replete with potentially market moving events and at least one potential 'tipping point, ' which markets will need to navigate. George Osborne will present his Autumn Statement on December 5th, Wednesday. Will he be forced to announce new austerity measures in order to meet this fiscal year's government deficit targets? For now it seems not, but that is what is at stake. In any case, and after what one broker terms the "plundering" of the profits from the Bank's asset purchase programme, should mean that Osborne - and the UK - have dodged that bullet for the time being. In that same vein, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) was expected to give the Chancellor a guarded "pass" verdict on the likelihood that it will still meet its medium-term targets. Nevertheless, it was thought that the OBR would lower its estimate for the UK economy's potential rate of growth until 2014, to between 1-1.5%, commented analysts at Charles Stanley. The Bank of England was to meet on Thursday but no changes in policy were forecast. Much the same was said of the European Central Bank (ECB), which was to meet a bit later that same day. Even so, Barclays Research commented on Friday that, "we think the ECB will leave rates unchanged next Thursday," but added, "and take further action at the beginning of 2013." Meantime, and over at Credit Suisse analysts were not excluding another long-term refinancing operation (LTRO).As far as potential tipping points were concerned, early next week the Greek government was expected to present its debt buyback offer, as per the recent Eurogroup agreement. The process should be finalised before December 13th. If it were to fail then financial markets could be in for some volatility, some market commentary held. Eurozone manufacturing sector survey data on Monday may have afforded markets a small reprieve from any selling pressure. On Friday the US Department of Labour was slated to publish its usually all important monthly employment report. In parallel, and on the corporate front, Monday December 3rd was expected to see British Petroleum (BP) hosting an upstream day. This is the opportunity for BP to present a long-term outlook for the first time since the Deepwater Horizon disaster, Credit Suisse wrote. "The key for BP will be to convince investors on improving momentum after 3 years of under-earning in exploration and production (E&P), and on the quality of its project hopper," the Swiss broker explained. Later, on Wednesday, Stagecoach was scheduled to release its latest interim results. Charles Stanley analyst Tony Shepard believed that they were unlikely to brighten the outlook for the sector. In fact, the fiasco over the West Coast rail re-franchising would come back into spotlight again, he thought. Stagecoach has exceptionally high profit margins of 18% in its UK Bus operations and there will be interest in how the company is offsetting cuts in UK public spending on public transport. Interestingly, "although Stagecoach has one of the best financial metrics in the sector, its results may flag forthcoming changes in the accounting rules on pensions (IAS 19) which will hit headline earnings in the next financial year, 2013/14," he said to clients. Finally, and on Thursday, CareTech will report preliminary results for the year ending September 30th 2012. Following a detailed trading update and investor seminar on October 17th, Savvas Neophytou and Mike Allen at Panmure Gordon expected few surprises. They forecast revenues growing by 6.0% to £115.7m, group EBITDA of £24.9m, and adjusted earnings per share of 26.4p."In our view, CareTech should be a core holding for investors looking to introduce healthcare or attractive special situation stocks into their portfolio. It provides good growth and defensive characteristics," they added.Monday December 03INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATEAndrews Sykes Group, Sony Corp.QUARTERLY PAYMENT DATEJPMorgan Claverhouse Inv TrustINTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSConstruction Spending (US) (15:00)ISM Manufacturing (US) (15:00)ISM Prices Paid (US) (15:00)PMI Manufacturing (EU) (09:00)GMSSilvermere EnergyFINALSEvocutisANNUAL REPORTDiplomaIMSSCity of London Investment GroupEGMSAlpha Bank GDR (Reg S) USD, Integra Group GDR (Reg S)AGMSAvation, Henderson Fledgling Trust , Skywest Airlines Ltd.UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSPMI Manufacturing  (09:30)Tuesday December 04INTERIMSAnite, Greene King, May Gurney Integrated Services, NorthgateINTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSAuto Sales (US) (15:00)Producer Price Index (EU) (10:00)GMSCenkos SecuritiesFINALSCharacter Group, Datong, ITE Group, TUI TravelAGMSAI Claims Solutions, NorthamberTRADING ANNOUNCEMENTSDolphin Capital Investors LtdUK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSBRC Sales Monitor (00:01)PMI Construction (09:30)FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATEJupiter Primadona Growth Trust, NWF GroupWednesday December 05INTERIMSFirst Property Group, Stagecoach GroupINTERIM EX-DIVIDEND DATEAlliance Pharma, Atkins (WS), Big Yellow Group, Brown (N.) Group, Cello Group, Chamberlin, City of London Group, Cranswick, Creston, De La Rue, Dee Valley Group, Dee Valley Group (Non-Voting), Edge Performance VCT 'C' Shares, Electrocomponents, Energy Technique, Establishment Inv Trust, European Residual Income Investments Cell, Fuller Smith & Turner, Headlam Group, Hogg Robinson Group, Homeserve, London Stock Exchange Group, Majestic Wine, Management Consulting Group, MDM Engineering Group Ltd. (DI), Norcros, Northern 3 VCT, PayPoint, Phoenix IT Group, Plastics Capital, Rensburg AIM VCT, SABMiller, Severn Trent, Shanks Group, Slingsby H.C, Tarsus Group, TR Property Inv Trust, TR Property Inv Trust Sigma Shares, UK Mail Group , Value and Income Trust, Victoria, VPQUARTERLY EX-DIVIDEND DATEBank of America Corp., Land Securities Group, Real Estate Credit Investments PCC LtdINTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSABC Consumer Confidence (US) (22:00)Crude Oil Inventories (US) (15:30)Goods Orders (US) (15:00)ISM Non-Manufacturing (US) (15:00)ISM Services (US) (15:00)MBA Mortgage Applications (US) (12:00)PMI Composite (EU) (09:00)PMI Composite (GER) (08:55)PMI Services (EU) (09:00)Retail Sales (EU) (10:00)FINALSBrewin Dolphin Holdings, Innovation Group, Jelf Group, Sage Group, SilverdellANNUAL REPORTGraingerSPECIAL EX-DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATEBritish Empire Securities & General Trust, Carnival, Renaissance Russia Infrastructure Equities Ltd, Rights & Issues Inv Trust Capital Shares, WolseleyEGMSAblon Group Ltd., Middlefield Canadian Income PCCAGMSAsia Digital Holdings, International Biotech Trust, K3 Business Technology GroupUK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSBoE Interest Rate Decision (12:00)BRC Shop Price Index (00:01)Official Reserves (09:30)PMI Services (09:30)FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATERegenersisFINAL EX-DIVIDEND DATEAberdeen Asset Management, Associated British Foods, British Empire Securities & General Trust, Conygar Investment Company, CVS Group, Debenhams, Grainger, Greencore Group, Local Shopping REIT, Northamber, Renewable Energy Generation Ltd., YouGovThursday December 06INTERIMSMicro Focus International, Mulberry Group, Smith (DS)INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATEFirst DerivativesINTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSContinuing Claims (US) (13:30)ECB Interest Rate (EU) (12:45)GDP (1st release) (EU) (10:00)Initial Jobless Claims (US) (13:30)Q3Premier FarnellFINALSCareTech Holding, OMG, Redhall GroupANNUAL REPORTCarr's Milling IndustriesIMSSWolseleyEGMS3Legs Resources, JSC Halyk Bank GDR (Reg S)AGMSAltus Resource Capital Ltd., City Natural Resources High Yield Trust, Egdon Resources, Jellybook Ltd (DI), RSM Tenon Group, Wessex ExplorationTRADING ANNOUNCEMENTSPZ CussonsUK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSBalance of Trade (09:30)New Car Registrations (09:30)UK Trade (09:30)FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATEFidelity Asian ValuesFriday December 07INTERIMSBerkeley Group Holdings (The), Photo-Me International, Polar Capital HoldingsINTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATEAmati VCT , Balfour Beatty, BlackRock Smaller Companies Trust, Elderstreet VCT, London & Stamford Property , Marshalls, Maven Income & Growth VCT, Metric Property Investments , Pace, Rotala, SThree, Stobart Group Ltd., Walker Crips Group, William HillQUARTERLY PAYMENT DATEBarclaysINTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSConsumer Credit (US) (20:00)Unemployment Rate (US) (13:30)ANNUAL REPORTMedicX Fund Ltd.SPECIAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATENarborough PlantationsAGMSAir Partner, Associated British Foods, Bezant Resources, Frontier Mining Ltd (DI), LP Hill, Minco, Renewable Energy Generation Ltd.UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSIndustrial Production (09:30)Manufacturing Production (09:30)FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATEAshmore Group, BlackRock Greater Europe Inv Trust, Centaur Media, Craneware, James Halstead, JPMorgan Smaller Companies Inv Trust, Matchtech Group