Week Ahead: Bovis, Persimmon, Diageo, UK GDP

17th Aug 2012 09:49

Results season for the house builders is upon us, and Bovis Homes kicks it off on Monday after releasing what Peel Hunt regarded as the weakest trading statement of all the companies in the sector back in July.Peel Hunt's beef is with Bovis's margins, which the broker thinks look set to slip below the levels seen in the second half of last year.Peel Hunt is forecasting headline pre-tax profit of £14.6m, or £10.7m if land sale profits are excluded. "We exclude land because of its weight: it represents 30% of pure housing profits," Peel Hunt explains."Bovis is trying hard to rectify a poor ROIC [return on investment capital] but we still cannot see the return being higher than 6.5% even by 2014 with the risks being more towards undershooting than beating current consensus. This must drag on valuation," argues the broker, which has a "sell" recommendation on Bovis.Bovis's sector peer, Persimmon, follows up on Tuesday with its interims. "Attention will focus on current trade comments in our view, in order to get a feel for the sector's health ahead of the important Autumn trading season," Panmure Gordon said."We heard from Taylor Wimpey and Bellway a couple of weeks ago that July had perhaps been a little better than expectations with sales rates still ahead YOY [year-on-year] (though the volume of sales was much reduced due to the normal seasonal profile of sales). It will be interesting to see if August has maintained that momentum so far, so that we can get a picture of how the sector will run into September when trading becomes more important," the broker continued.Panmure Gordon is forecasting an interim profit before tax of £90.9m, which is in excess of a 50% increase YOY.Diageo steps up to the bar on Thursday with full-year figures. The market is going for sales of £10.75bn for the spirits distiller and Guinness brewer, and profit before tax of £2.94bn. Investment analysts have pencilled in an earnings per share figure of 92.1p, and a full-year divi of 44.33p.Charles Stanley is forecasting earnings before interest, tax and amortisation of £3.19bn. "Asia, Africa and Latin America are expected to have been the drivers of growth, with more subdued performances in North America and Europe. We forecast group sales to be up by 6.5% on an organic basis, driven by a mixture of volume growth and improved mix," revealed Charles Stanley's Sam Hart.On the economic front, the stats compilers have another go on Friday at guessing what UK gross domestic product (GDP) was in the second quarter of 2012. Expectations are that GDP will have shrunk 0.5% during the quarter to a level down 0.6% year-on-year. Those figures, if correct, would represent a slight improvement on the first stab at estimating GDP, which suggested the UK economy had shrunk by an eye-watering 0.7% during the quarter, after declining by 0.3% in the first quarter.Monday August 20INTERIMSAmlin, Bovis Homes GroupINTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATECrystal Amber Fund Ltd.QUARTERLY PAYMENT DATECaterpillar Inc.GMSAlbany Inv Trust, Indian Restaurants GroupEGMSDatang International Power Generation Co Ltd.AGMSPeer TVFINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATELondon Stock Exchange Group, Mountview EstateTuesday August 21INTERIMSAfren, Capital Drilling Ltd. (DI), Coca-Cola HBC S.A., CPP Group, Fisher (James) & Sons, Gem Diamonds Ltd. (DI), Glencore International, H&T Group, Persimmon, Severfield-Rowen, Source BioScience, UK Commercial Property Trust, Wood Group (John)Q2ADC African Development Corporation GmbHGMSILX GroupANNUAL REPORTFalkland Islands HoldingsAGMSFalkland Islands Holdings, Goldman Sachs Dynamic Opportunities Ltd, World Trust FundUK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSCBI Industrial Trends Surveys (11:00)Public Sector Finances (09:30)Wednesday August 22INTERIMSCarillion, Clarkson, Derwent London, Elringklinger AG, Frutarom Industries Ltd GDR (Reg S), Hardy Oil & Gas, Kenmare Resources, London Capital Group Holdings, Melrose Resources, office2office, Plaza Centers NV, Soco International, Spirax-Sarco Engineering, TT ElectronicsINTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATEIDOXINTERIM EX-DIVIDEND DATEBlackRock World Mining Trust, Brewin Dolphin Holdings, Capital & Counties Properties , Catlin Group Ltd., CRH, Dragon Oil, Eurasian Natural Resources Corp., Fidessa Group, Henderson Opportunities Trust, InterContinental Hotels Group, Mondi, PPHE Hotel Group Ltd, Prudential, Puma VCT V, Rights & Issues Inv Trust Income Shares, Secure Trust Bank, St James's Place, Standard Life, Stanley Gibbons Group, Synectics, Taylor Wimpey, UBM, Witan Inv Trust, XaarQUARTERLY EX-DIVIDEND DATECanaccord Financial Inc., CarnivalINTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSCrude Oil Inventories (US) (15:30)Existing Home Sales (US) (15:00)FOMC Interest Rate Minutes (US) (19:00)MBA Mortgage Applications (US) (12:00)Q2Frutarom Industries Ltd GDR (Reg S)FINALSBHP BillitonANNUAL REPORTImmofinanz AGSPECIAL EX-DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATEPHSCAGMSAberdeen New Dawn Inv Trust, Latham (James)FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATEHalmaFINAL EX-DIVIDEND DATECohort, Eckoh, First Property Group, iEnergizer Ltd., NWF Group, PHSCThursday August 23INTERIMSAegis Group, Alpha UK Multi Property Trust, AZ Electronic Materials SA (DI), Camellia, Delcam, Genel Energy, IMI, Kazakhmys, New World Resources A Shares, Petropavlovsk, Premier Oil, Salamander Energy, Signet Jewelers Ltd., Sportech, STV GroupINTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSBloomberg Consumer Confidence (US) (14:45)Consumer Confidence Indicator (EU) (10:00)Continuing Claims (US) (13:30)House Price Index (US) (15:00)Initial Jobless Claims (US) (13:30)New Homes Sales (US) (15:00)Q2New World Resources A Shares, Signet Jewelers Ltd., Wentworth Resources Ltd (CDI)Q4Haynes Publishing GroupGMSNorseman GoldFINALSDiageo, Haynes Publishing GroupAGMSAberforth Geared Income Trust, Ten AlpsUK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSBBA Mortgage Lending Figures (09:30)CBI Distributive Trades Surveys (11:00)Friday August 24INTERIMSAga Rangemaster Group, Berendsen, Henry BootINTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATEEdinburgh UK Tracker Trust, Microgen, Throgmorton TrustQUARTERLY PAYMENT DATEPicton Property Income LtdINTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSDurable Goods Orders (US) (13:30)GMSMouchel Group, Small Companies Dividend TrustFINALSEurocommercial Properties NVANNUAL REPORTRenishawAGMSIRET Securities Ltd Zero Div Pref, Pathfinder Minerals , Pathfinder Minerals , Picton Property Income Ltd, Stagecoach GroupUK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSGDP (output, income & expenditure) (09:30)Index of Services (09:30)FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATEAberdeen New Dawn Inv Trust, AEC Education, Heath (Samuel) & Sons, Latham (James), Puma VCT V, RIT Capital Partners, Volex