Week ahead: BoE, ECB policy announcements in focus

30th Jan 2026 10:29

(Sharecast News) - Investors will focus on the latest Bank of England and European Central Bank policy announcements next week, as well as the US non-farm payrolls report.

The BoE is widely expected to keep rates unchanged at 3.75% on Thursday.

Matt Swannell, chief economic advisor to the EY Item Club, said keeping Bank Rate unchanged "looks a near-certainty".

"Some of the MPC doves that favoured a cut in December still harbour some concerns around sticky wage growth and inflation," he said. "Although the data over the last few weeks has tilted in a slightly dovish direction, this does not appear to be anywhere near enough to prompt a majority of the MPC to favour back-to-back cuts. Seven of nine rate setters seem likely to favour keeping Bank Rate unchanged, with two preferring to lower interest rates by 25bps."

Swannell said the MPC is maintaining a watching brief and probably won't offer any explicit guidance that commits to the timing and extent of future rate cuts.

"However, the MPC is likely to indicate that Bank Rate is approaching a neutral setting and that the cutting cycle is approaching an end. Its near-term inflation forecast will likely to fall to 2% in the middle of this year as the cost-of-living measures announced at the Autumn Budget come into effect.

"But its inflation projection could still settle around the 2% target in two to three years' time, indicating that in the MPC's view, one or two carefully judged cuts may still be delivered."

The ECB, which will also announce its decision on Thursday, is expected to keep rates on hold at 2.00%.

"Though geopolitical tensions and recent market volatility will likely bring the subject of uncertainty back into the discussion, the press statement and conference will continue to lean on balanced risks and a 'well-positioned' monetary policy," said TD Securities.

On the corporate front, 'Magnificent Seven' member Amazon is due to report fourth-quarter results on Thursday.

Matt Britzman, senior equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown, said: "Cloud growth at AWS is, as ever, the key number to watch when Amazon reports fourth‑quarter results next week. Markets are pencilling in growth of around 21%, which would mark a third consecutive quarter of acceleration, and investors will be listening closely for any update on supply and demand dynamics. Last time around, demand was still running ahead of available capacity as new infrastructure struggled to keep up.

"Amazon shares have largely gone sideways over the past year, with the valuation easing as investors weigh up the scale of the opportunity ahead. There's a growing debate that, in the AI‑driven phase of cloud computing, returns for the big platforms may not be as attractive, given higher capital intensity and margin pressure. It's not something that will show up neatly in a single data point, but commentary on these trends is something investors should watch for."

Also on the US earnings calendar, Disney is slated to report first-quarter numbers on Monday, while Alphabet and Uber will release quarterly results on Wednesday.

In the UK, Q4 results from oil giant Shell and a Q3 update from Vodafone - both on Thursday - are among the highlights.

UBS noted that in its trading update on 8 January, Shell pointed to a weaker quarter given higher non-cash charges and a loss-making downstream division.

"We are 7% below consensus on net income driven by a loss-making C&P division," the bank said.

UBS said it expect a $6.5bn increase to net debt quarter-on-quarter, taking leverage up by 2.5 percentage points, and maintains its view for buybacks to be slowed to $3bn alongside results on 5 February.

The latest US non-farm payrolls report will be released on Friday, amid expectations it will show a 78,000 increase for January.

Monday February 02

INTERIMS

CAP-XX Limited

INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE

United Utilities Group, Workspace Group

QUARTERLY EX-DIVIDEND DATE

Nokia OYJ

INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS

ISM Manufacturing (US) (15:00)

ISM Prices Paid (US) (15:00)

PMI Manufacturing (GER) (08:55)

PMI Manufacturing (EU) (09:00)

PMI Manufacturing (US) (14:45)

Retail Sales (GER) (07:00)

SPECIAL EX-DIVIDEND DATE

Reckitt Benckiser Group

UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS

PMI Manufacturing (09:30)

Tuesday February 03

INTERIMS

Alumasc Group, EnSilica , Filtronic, NWF Group

INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE

Johnson Matthey

FINALS

LBG Media

TRADING ANNOUNCEMENTS

Jadestone Energy

UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS

BRC Sales Monitor (00:01)

Wednesday February 04

QUARTERLY PAYMENT DATE

British American Tobacco

INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS

Crude Oil Inventories (US) (15:30)

Factory Orders (US) (15:00)

ISM Prices Paid (US) (15:00)

ISM Services (US) (15:00)

MBA Mortgage Applications (US) (12:00)

PMI Composite (EU) (09:00)

PMI Composite (GER) (08:55)

PMI Composite (US) (14:45)

PMI Services (EU) (09:00)

PMI Services (GER) (08:55)

PMI Services (US) (14:45)

Producer Price Index (EU) (10:00)

Q4

GSK

FINALS

GSK

EGMS

IG Design Group

AGMS

AJ Bell, Premier Miton Group, Watkin Jones

TRADING ANNOUNCEMENTS

DCC (CDI), Entain, Gem Diamonds Ltd. (DI), Watches of Switzerland Group

UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS

PMI Composite (09:30)

PMI Services (09:30)

FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE

AJ Bell

Thursday February 05

INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE

JPMorgan European Discovery Trust, Vodafone Group

INTERIM EX-DIVIDEND DATE

Aberforth Geared Value & Income Trust

QUARTERLY EX-DIVIDEND DATE

Chenavari Toro Income Fund Limited NPV, Picton Property Income Ltd

INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS

Continuing Claims (US) (13:30)

Factory Orders (GER) (07:00)

Initial Jobless Claims (US) (13:30)

Retail Sales (EU) (10:00)

Q4

Shell , Shell

GMS

Nippon Active Value Fund

FINALS

Shell , Shell

SPECIAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE

Smiths News

SPECIAL EX-DIVIDEND DATE

Aberforth Smaller Companies Trust

EGMS

New Frontier Minerals Limited (DI)

AGMS

Compass Group, Compass Group, Hargreave Hale AIM VCT , The Sage Group

TRADING ANNOUNCEMENTS

BT Group, Compass Group, JTC, Vodafone Group

UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS

BoE Interest Rate Decision (12:00)

PMI Construction (09:30)

FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE

Greencore Group (CDI), Smiths News

FINAL EX-DIVIDEND DATE

Aberforth Smaller Companies Trust, Avon Technologies , On The Beach Group , Victorian Plumbing Group

Friday February 06

INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE

Ashtead Group, Bisichi , QinetiQ Group, XPS Pensions Group

QUARTERLY PAYMENT DATE

BlackRock Latin American Inv Trust, CT UK High Income Trust, CT UK High Income Trust B , Mercantile Investment Trust (The)

INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS

Balance of Trade (GER) (07:00)

Industrial Production (GER) (07:00)

SPECIAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE

Scottish Oriental Smaller Companies Trust

AGMS

Northamber, Victrex plc

TRADING ANNOUNCEMENTS

Victrex plc

FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE

Origin Enterprises (CDI), Schroder Asia Pacific Fund, Scottish Oriental Smaller Companies Trust