Week Ahead: Big week for retailers

5th Nov 2010 10:09

Results season remains in full swing next week, with a particular emphasis on retailers such as Marks & Spencer, Sainsbury and Primark owner Associated British Foods .It's high flying online clothes retailer that gets the ball rolling on Monday, however, with its interim figures. Panmure Gordon is forecasting profit before tax of £6.9m, which would represent a 57% improvement on last year's showing.The group has already released sales figures for the first half, with overseas sales showing spectacular year on year growth of 128% to £26m in the July to September quarter. Panmure Gordon thinks group gross margin will have eased by 65 basis points (100 basis points = 1 percentage point), after sliding 120 basis points (bps) in the preceding six month period, but sees retail gross margin improving by half a percentage point, compared to a 40bp improvement in the second half of the last financial year."We anticipate that operational leverage will offset some of the gross margin decline, for an EBIT [earnings before interest and tax] margin of 5.0% (+40bp)," the broker said. The same broker has been having a look at Marks & Spencer (M&S) ahead of the retail giant's interim results on Tuesday, and is not expecting many surprises from the figures."The market has seen M&S's interim sales data, and has given fairly close gross margin and operating cost guidance. We will be interested to see the level of staff bonus being provided for, given better than expected top line growth; we raised our forecast for this to £60m (full year) from £35m following the Q2 trading statement. This compares with £80.9m paid last year," Panmure Gordon said.The broker is forecasting interim revenues of £4,571m, up 5.4% on last year, EBIT of £413.7m (up 13.3%) and profit before tax of £251.7m (+14.7%). It has pencilled in a figure of 16.0p (+14.5%) for earnings per share and expects the dividend to be bumped up by 10% to 6p.Of more interest than the numbers will be the unveiling of the strategic plan that new chief executive Marc Bolland has been working on for the last six months. "Key areas on which he is likely to concentrate include the launch of an on-line food offer; international strategy; the structure of the UK store portfolio (high street vs. out-of-town locations); and the role of brands within the business," reckons Charles Stanley analyst Sam Hart. "An update is also likely to be provided on previously announced restructuring of logistics and IT infrastructure, which is targeting £250m of annualized savings (c.9% of operating costs) by 2015/16," Hart added.As is usually the case with results from Associated British Foods, the focus will be on what Jeremy Batstone-Carr, head of research at Charles Stanley, described as "Primark's seeming ability to defy tough trading conditions across the sector."Batstone-Carr has pencilled in a figure of £10,120m for group sales, up from £9,255m last year. He thinks that Primark's operating profit will be around 30% ahead of last year at £330m."We suspect that investors will watch the outlook statement closely for indications regarding like for like sales trends, especially as we suspect that profitability could be adversely impacted by higher cotton prices, higher shipping costs and the adverse impact of the VAT increase in both the UK and Spain," the broker suggested."In Sugar we suspect that divisional profits may have peaked in the light of the expected EU decision not to allow significant export activity over the near-term. Thus divisional expansion rests on South African Illovo and on operations in China, thus exposing the business to even greater potential volatility in commodity and FX issues. In Grocery we believe that the operating environment remains extremely tough. We expect promotional activity to increase while rising input costs are likely to squeeze divisional margins," Batstone-Carr said.Monday November 08INTERIMSASOS, Great Eastern Energy Corp Ltd. GDR, Printing.comINTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATEMorrison (Wm) SupermarketsQUARTERLY EX-DIVIDEND DATEIBM Corp.INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSM3 Money Supply (JPN)Current Account Total (JPN)Balance of Trade (GER) (07:00)Current Account (GER) (07:00)Sentix Investor Confidence (EU) (09:30)Unemployment Rate (EU) (10:00)Industrial Production (GER) (11:00)Consumer Credit (US) (20:00)Q3Inmarsat, Lancashire HoldingsGMSClipper Windpower (Reg S), Restore, Solomon Gold, Vatukoula Gold MinesFINALSCarr's Milling IndustriesIMSSG4S, Inmarsat, Quorum Oil & Gas Technology Fund Ltd., TomkinsAGMSOtium Ventures , TR European Growth TrustFINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATEMedusa Mining Ltd. (DI), Stavert ZigomalaTuesday November 09INTERIMSBabcock International Group, Blinkx, DCC, Kewill, Marks & Spencer Group, Northern Foods, Toshiba Corp., Umeco, Vodafone Group, Yell GroupINTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSBankruptcies (JPN)Machine Tool Orders (JPN)Consumer Price Index (GER) (07:00)Bank of France Business Sentiment (FRA) (07:30)Trade Balance (FRA) (07:45)NFIB Small Business Optimism (US) (12:30)Wholesales Inventories (US) (15:00)ABC Consumer Confidence (US) (22:00)Q2Yell GroupQ3First Quantum Minerals Ltd., InterContinental Hotels Group, Planet Payment Inc.GMSSinosoft TechnologyFINALSAssociated British Foods, BowLevenIMSSCapital & Counties Properties , CRH, Drax Group, Legal & General Group, Management Consulting GroupEGMSCashboxAGMSA&J Mucklow Group, Centamin Egypt Ltd., Crown Place VCT, Energy XXI (Bermuda) (Reg S), Quayle Munro Holdings, Strategic Equity CapitalTRADING ANNOUNCEMENTSLegal & General Group, Safestore HoldingsUK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSBRC Sales Monitor (00:01)RICS House Price Balance (00:01)Balance of Trade (09:30)Industrial Production (09:30)Manufacturing Production (09:30)NIESR Gross Domestic Product estimateFINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATEHMV GroupWednesday November 10INTERIMS3i Group, Aveva Group, Great Portland Estates, IS Pharma, Sainsbury (J), Scottish & Southern Energy, Western Coal Corp.INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATEAshley (Laura) Holding, CarillionINTERIM EX-DIVIDEND DATEAir Partner, Amati VCT , Anglo Pacific Group, Bunzl, Cable & Wireless Communications, First Derivatives, Home Retail Group, Invensys, JZ Capital Partners Ltd., Maven Income & Growth VCT, Pace, Stobart Group Ltd., Synergy HealthQUARTERLY EX-DIVIDEND DATEF&C Commercial Property Trust Ltd., UnileverINTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSConsumer Confidence (JPN)Machine Orders (JPN)CGPI (JPN)Consumer Price Index (FRA) (06:30)Industrial Production (FRA) (07:45)Manufacturing Output (FRA) (07:45)MBA Mortgage Applications (US) (12:00)Balance of Trade (US) (13:30)Weekly Jobless Claims (US) (13:30)Crude Oil Inventories (US) (15:30)Existing Home Sales (US) (15:00)Treasury Budget Statement (US) (19:00)Q3Bank Pekao SA GDS (Reg S), Eurasia Drilling Co Ltd. GDR (Reg S), Smurfit Kappa Group, Talvivaara Mining CompanyGMSCMA Global Hedge PCC Ltd. EUR Shares, RedHot Media International Ltd (DI)., Serviced Office GroupFINALSFennerANNUAL REPORTScottish & Southern EnergyIMSSArk Therapeutics Group, Gartmore Group Ltd., Johnston Press, Prudential, Supergroup, Tullow OilSPECIAL EX-DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATEJZ Capital Partners Ltd., Yamana Gold Inc.EGMSCMA Global Hedge PCC Ltd. EUR SharesAGMSAllied Gold Ltd., Hays, Oilex Ltd., System C Healthcare, Westmount Energy Ltd., Wilmington GroupTRADING ANNOUNCEMENTSMicro Focus International Plc, SupergroupUK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSBoE Inflation Report (09:30)FINAL EX-DIVIDEND DATEAnimalcare Group, Centaur Media, Craneware, Dechra Pharmaceuticals, Downing Absolute Income VCT 1, Edinburgh Dragon Trust, Gartmore Fledgling Trust, JPMorgan Smaller Companies Inv Trust, Manchester & London Inv Trust, Swallowfield, World Careers NetworkThursday November 11INTERIMSDairy Crest Group, Land Securities Group, Latchways, Opsec Security Group, Vedanta Resources, WincantonINTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATEBritish American Inv Trust, Yule Catto & CoQUARTERLY PAYMENT DATEMerchants TrustINTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSECB Report (EU) (09:00)Q3Aegon NV, Anglogold Ashanti Ltd., Cryptologic Ltd., European Goldfields Ltd., Grupo Clarin SA GDR (Reg S), Ruukki Group (DI), Telecom Egypt SAE GDS (Regs), Telefonica SAFINALSEuromoney Institutional InvestorIMSSBalfour Beatty, Capital & Regional, Eurasian Natural Resources Corp., Hill & Smith Holdings, IMI, International Power, Resolution Ltd., Restaurant Group, Trinity Mirror, WH Smith, Yule Catto & CoAGMSBlue Planet Worldwide Financials Inv Trust, Cape Resources, Genus, Minerva, Nautical Petroleum, Thorpe (F.W.)Friday November 12INTERIMSHornby, Reliance Infrastructure Ltd. GDR (Reg S)INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATEAll Leisure Group, Cobham, Johnson Service Group, Kerry Group 'A' Shares, Kingfisher, Maven Income & Growth 2 VCT, Rightmove, Spectris, Spirax-Sarco Engineering, Staffline Group, STM GroupINTERIM EX-DIVIDEND DATETotal SAQUARTERLY PAYMENT DATEBritish Land CoINTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSFrench Gross Domestic Product (06:30)Gross Domestic Product (GER) (07:00)GDP (Flash Estimate) (EU) (10:00)Industrial Production (EU) (10:00)U. of Michigan Confidence (US) (15:00)Q2Reliance Infrastructure Ltd. GDR (Reg S)GMSBond International Software, Pentagon ProtectionIMSSCatlin Group Ltd., Rolls-Royce Group, Spectris, Tullett PrebonSPECIAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATEQuayle Munro HoldingsAGMSAlbemarle & Bond Holdings, Dominion Petroleum Ltd. (DI), Kier Group, Nordic Land, RheochemUK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSNationwide Consumer Confidence (00:01)FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATEBritish Sky Broadcasting Group, Daejan Holdings, Eaga, Edge Performance VCT 'C' Shares, Edge Performance VCT 'D' Shares, Edge Performance VCT 'E' Shares, Galliford Try, London Finance & Investment Group, Quayle Munro Holdings, Savile Group, Wilmington Group