Week Ahead: Big week for retailers

6th Jan 2012 12:54

Next week is a big one for the UK retail sector, with a number of heavyweights set to report on Christmas trading, including Marks and Spencer, Morrisons, Debenhams, Sainsbury and Tesco. Among the second tier players, the announcements from Game, Halfords, Home Retail, HMV, Thorntons and Mothercare will also be keenly anticipated, as all have had their trials and tribulations of late. Adding to the retail theme, the British Retail Consortium's Shop Price Index is out on WednesdayGetting the ball rolling on Monday is supermarket chain Morrisons, with a trading update covering the six weeks to January 1st. The sector's fourth-largest player has been outperforming its bigger peers in terms of like-for-like (LFL) sales growth, but Nomura thinks Monday's update could see Morrisons come back to the chasing pack, falling behind Sainsbury and possibly Asda."Facing sharper pricing from both Tesco and Asda, we look for an ex-fuel ex-VAT [value added tax] LFL of +0.5% for the six weeks, compared to +2.4% for Q3 [third quarter] and against a broadly flat comparative," the Japanese broker predicts, adding that such an out-turn would still leave Morrison well-placed to meet or beat Nomura's full-year LFL sales growth target target of +1.5%."Given the proximity to the group's January year-end, and despite a slower LFL data point, we expect Morrison to reaffirm its full-year expectations," Nomura said.Also out on Monday is an update from house builder Persimmon, while later in the week its sector peer Barratt Developments reports. At the beginning of November, Persimmon said it had seen a spike in the number of site visits from first-time buyers in the second half of 2011, and it will be interesting to learn whether this trend has continued through to the end of the year. Due to an expected pick-up in first time buyer activity, the group now expects its average selling price for the full year of 2011 to be slightly lower than the £169,000 of last year. At the time of the November update, the forward order book was in a healthy state, with around £460m sales already reserved beyond 2011, up 7% from the same time the year before. Northland Securities is expecting Persimmon to announce further growth in the order book."Implementing the group's recovery strategy is securing greater growth potential. Growth is accelerating through margin improvement as more strategic land comes into production and sites on higher margin land become active," Northland believes. "A 5.2% return on equity is being achieved in the current stable market. We expect this to almost double to 9.9% in our forecast period; more could be expected with a growing housing market. Extending the run of improving margins through self-help is seen continuing throughout 2012," the broker added. On the economic front, the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee is expected to stand pat with its interest rate and quantitative easing policies on Thursday.Monday January 09QUARTERLY PAYMENT DATEAlpha Pyrenees Trust Ltd., Land Securities GroupINTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSBalance of Trade (GER) (07:00)Consumer Credit (US) (20:00)Current Account (GER) (07:00)Industrial Production (GER) (11:00)Retail Price Index (GER) (07:00)Retail Sales (GER) (07:00)AGMSCambria Automobiles, LXB Retail PropertiesTRADING ANNOUNCEMENTSHydrogen Group, Persimmon, XP Power Ltd. (DI)FINAL EX-DIVIDEND DATEBarloworld Ltd.Tuesday January 10INTERIMSIlikaINTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATECreston, TR Property Inv Trust, TR Property Inv Trust Sigma Shares, WhitbreadQUARTERLY PAYMENT DATEXP Power Ltd. (DI)INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSFactory Orders (GER) (11:00)Wholesales Inventories (US) (15:00)IMSSDebenhams, Development Securities, Marks & Spencer Group, Smiths NewsAGMSCarr's Milling Industries, Debenhams, Topps TilesTRADING ANNOUNCEMENTSDunelm Group, Rathbone BrothersUK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSBRC Sales Monitor (00:01)RICS Housing Market Survey (09:30)FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATEConygar Investment Company, Waterman GroupWednesday January 11INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE3i Group, 3i Infrastructure, Anglo Pacific Group, De La Rue, Ventus 2 VCT 'C' Shares, Ventus VCT, Ventus VCT 'C' SharesINTERIM EX-DIVIDEND DATEUmeco, Workspace GroupQUARTERLY PAYMENT DATEAfrica Opportunity Fund Ltd.QUARTERLY EX-DIVIDEND DATEBritish Land Co, F&C Commercial Property Trust Ltd.INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSNational Accounts (GDP) (10:00)Crude Oil Inventories (US) (15:30)MBA Mortgage Applications (US) (12:00)IMSSBrown (N.) GroupSPECIAL EX-DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATEJuridica Investments Ltd.AGMSFenner, Ottoman Fund Ltd.TRADING ANNOUNCEMENTSGame Group, Greggs, Hays, Michael Page International, Sainsbury (J)UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSBalance of Trade (09:30)BRC Shop Price Index (00:01)UK Trade (09:30)FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATEAI Claims Solutions, Northamber, RSM Tenon GroupFINAL EX-DIVIDEND DATEDewhurst, Dewhurst (Non-Voting), Dunedin Smaller Companies Inv Trust, Lonmin, Paragon Group Of Companies, Schroder Asia Pacific FundThursday January 12INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATECable & Wireless Communications, Mckay Securities, Morgan Crucible CoINTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSBloomberg Consumer Confidence (US) (14:45)Business Inventories (US) (13:30)Consumer Price Index (GER) (07:00)Continuing Claims (US) (13:30)ECB Interest Rate (EU) (12:45)Industrial Production (EU) (10:00)Initial Jobless Claims (US) (13:30)Manufacturing Inventories (US) (15:00)Retail Sales (US) (13:45)Retail Sales Inventories (US) (15:15)Treasury Budget Statement (US) (19:00)Q4Sandvine Corp.FINALSSandvine Corp.IMSSBooker Group, Halfords Group, Home Retail Group, Luminar Group Holdings, Namakwa Diamonds Ltd. (DI)EGMSPolski Koncern Naftowy Orlen S.A. GDR(Reg S)AGMSCardiff PropertyTRADING ANNOUNCEMENTSAshmore Group, Cape, Computacenter, Hilton Food Group, JD Sports Fashion, Mothercare, SIG, Tesco, ThorntonsUK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSBoE Interest Rate Decision (12:00)Industrial Production (09:30)Manufacturing Production (09:30)FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATEK3 Business Technology Group, SportingbetFriday January 13INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATEAlliance Pharma, Babcock International Group, Caffyns, Cropper (James), Electrocomponents, Kewill, Marks & Spencer Group, Northern 3 VCT, Severn Trent, Shanks Group, Telford Homes, UK Mail Group QUARTERLY PAYMENT DATEYamana Gold Inc.INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSBalance of Trade (US) (13:30)Import and Export Price Indexes (US) (13:30)U. of Michigan Confidence (Prelim) (US) (15:00)GMSBeowulf MiningAGMSBellwayTRADING ANNOUNCEMENTSSpectris, Ted BakerFINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATEAssociated British Foods, Debenhams, Renewable Energy Generation Ltd.