Week Ahead: ASOS, Booker, MPC, inflation

14th Sep 2012 11:56

After the recent gloomy trading statement from fashion retailer Next, ASOS shareholders might be a bit apprehensive ahead of the online clothes seller's interim management statement on Wednesday, but Panmure Gordon says not to worry.The broker recently raised its price target for the stock from 2179p to 2378p ahead of the trading statement, which will cover the three months to the end of August, the group's new fourth quarter (Q4) following its year-end change."This quarter offers a very easy comparable for the UK, which is still ASOS's single most important market, representing 39% of retail sales in the nine months reported to date," Panmure Gordon notes."Most recent UK online clothing sector trends are strong and we expect only a small currency related slowdown in the international sales growth run rate vs. Q3's +54%. We think that the company can report Q4 sales growth of 35.0% (consensus +30%), to £145.1m (+17.0% UK and +47.3% international)," the broker said.Peel Hunt, meanwhile, predicts UK sales growth of 12% year-on-year (yoy). "Most new season ranges are now priced more aggressively yoy," the broker observed.It has also raised its target price, to 2100p, but in view of the strong share price performance of the stock it has cut its rating to "hold" from "buy"."We look for international growth of +44.9%, with ROW [rest of world] +60%, EU +20% and US +65%. We expect territories with own-country web sites to be outperforming and look for updates on the development of own country teams, particularly in the US," Peel Hunt's John Stevenson said.The same broker also previewed cash-and-carry retailer Booker's second quarter interim management statement, where it thinks the key will be a progress report on recently acquired rival Makro.Peel Hunt forecasts like-for-like sales growth in non-tobacco goods will have quickened to 4% in the second quarter from 3.8% in the preceding quarter. LFL sales of tobacco are expected to be down 1% yoy, though that represents an improvement on the preceding quarter's 1.7% decline.On Wednesday, the Bank of England releases the minutes from the September meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), but Credit Suisse seems to think they might well be a photocopy of the August minutes."More important will likely be the publication of the minutes of the Consumer Prices Advisory Committee (CPAC) meeting on Tuesday," Credit Suisse ventures."The results of the CPAC discussions are widely anticipated in UK inflation related markets. The most substantial issue is the possible change in formula used to calculate RPI [retail price index]: a change that could shave up to 90bps [nine-tenths of a percentage point] off the annual RPI inflation rate, depending on how widely alterations are made," the Swiss bank said.Peel Hunt's Ian Williams, meanwhile, has homed in on the consumer price index (CPI) as the key economic item of the week. "In the UK, the August CPI data should see the downward path in headline inflation resume after the unexpected blip higher in July, while the retail sales numbers may only add to the confusion over the impact of the Olympics on broader UK economic activity," Williams said. "Wednesday's MPC minutes are likely to retain a dovish tone ahead of the next round of Bank of England policy easing, which is probably pencilled in for November," he added.Monday September 17INTERIMSIofina, Networkers InternationalINTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSBalance of Payments (EU) (09:00)Balance of Trade (EU) (10:00)Current Account (EU) (09:00)FINALSAllergy TherapeuticsAGMSAberdeen Private Equity Fund Ltd. Sterling Part Shares, Albion Prime VCT, Albion Venture Capital Trust, City of London Group, Downing Absolute Income VCT 2, Turbotec ProductsFINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATEImpala Platinum Holdings Ltd., Mulberry GroupTuesday September 18INTERIMSGood Energy Group, Surgical Innovations Group, Work GroupINTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATECapital & Counties Properties , MondiINTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSBalance of Payments (US) (13:30)Current Account (US) (13:30)New Car Registrations (EU) (10:00)ZEW Survey (EU) (10:00)ZEW Survey (GER) (10:00)FINALSWilmington GroupAGMSMortice Ltd. (DI), Vectura GroupUK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSConsumer Price Index  (09:30)Retail Price Index (09:30)Wednesday September 19INTERIMSAnpario, Optimal Pay, Paragon Entertainment Ltd (DI)INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATEHiscox Ltd., New World Resources A Shares, St James's PlaceINTERIM EX-DIVIDEND DATEAviva, BBA Aviation, Chime Communications, Computacenter, Costain Group, EMIS Group, G4S, Highcroft Investment, InterQuest Group, Interserve, Irish Continental Group Units, Maintel Holdings, Melrose, Molins, Neptune-Calculus Income & Growth VCT, Petrofac Ltd., Playtech Ltd., Premier Farnell, RPS Group, Tikit Group, Total Produce, Tribal GroupINTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSBuilding Permits (US) (13:30)Crude Oil Inventories (US) (15:30)Existing Home Sales (US) (15:00)Housing Starts (US) (13:30)MBA Mortgage Applications (US) (12:00)FINALSGalliford Try, Origin Enterprises, Redrow, Smiths Group, SwallowfieldANNUAL REPORTHaynes Publishing GroupIMSSPZ CussonsAGMSAEA Technology Group, Bango, Cable & Wireless Worldwide, PetroNeft Resources, PZ Cussons, Stagecoach Theatre Arts, Warner Estate HoldingsUK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSBoE Interest Rate Minutes (09:30)FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATECohort, Falkland Islands HoldingsFINAL EX-DIVIDEND DATEBest of the Best, Brooks Macdonald Group, Consort Medical, Henderson Smaller Companies Inv Trust, IG Group Holdings, Kier Group, Renishaw, Standard Life UK Smaller Companies TrustThursday September 20INTERIMSBrainJuicer Group, Moss Bros Group, Norcon, TawaINTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATEDragon Oil, First Quantum Minerals Ltd., Hochschild Mining, Mobeus Income & Growth VctQUARTERLY PAYMENT DATERoyal Dutch Shell 'A', Royal Dutch Shell 'B'INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSBloomberg Consumer Confidence (US) (14:45)Consumer Confidence Indicator (EU) (10:00)Continuing Claims (US) (13:30)Initial Jobless Claims (US) (13:30)Leading Indicators (US) (15:00)Philadelphia Fed Index (US) (15:00)Producer Price Index (GER) (07:00)ANNUAL REPORTNCC GroupIMSSOcado GroupAGMSAfrican Copper, Best of the Best, GEONG International Ltd., NCC Group, New India Inv Trust, NWF Group, Supergroup, TrifastTRADING ANNOUNCEMENTSImperial Tobacco GroupUK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSCBI Industrial Trends Surveys (11:00)Internet Retail Sales (09:30)Retail Sales (09:30)Friday September 21INTERIMSOxford Catalysts Group, Toumaz LimitedINTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATEBaronsmead VCT 3, Baronsmead VCT 4, Baronsmead VCT 5, BlackRock World Mining Trust, Brewin Dolphin Holdings, Catlin Group Ltd., Ferrexpo, Henderson Group, Kingspan Group, LPA Group, National Express Group, New Europe Property Investments, Secure Trust Bank, Synectics, Telecity Group, TP70 VCT, Ultra Electronics Holdings, XaarQUARTERLY PAYMENT DATEReal Estate Credit Investments PCC LtdFINALSAsian Citrus Holding, Gleeson (M J) GroupANNUAL REPORTBlinkxSPECIAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATEPHSCAGMSBlinkx, Filtronic, Ryanair HoldingsUK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSPublic Sector Finances (09:30)FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATECarclo, Eckoh, First Property Group, Northgate, PHSC, SSE