Week Ahead: All eyes on the Chancellor

16th Mar 2012 08:15

Wednesday is the big day next week, when the Chancellor of the Exchequer, George Osborne, unveils details of the Finance Bill, known to the likes of you and me as 'the Budget'.After ratings agency Fitch warned on Thursday that there is a slightly better than evens chance that Britain will lose its cherished AAA rating on UK sovereign debt, Osborne will be under even more pressure to raise revenue while at the same time juicing the economy.He also has to keep happy the Conservative party's coalition partners, the Liberal Democrats, so we could see the unusual sight of a Tory chancellor engaging in a bit of soaking of the rich, so that the government can press ahead with plans to raise the personal tax allowance to £10,000, a key plank of the Liberal Democrats' manifesto.It was announced last summer that from April the personal allowance is being raised to £8,105, meaning a total of 880,000 earners will be exempt from paying tax.Calls for tax cuts have come from the predictable sources, such as the Confederation of British Industry (CBI), which is looking for a £500m boost to business. "The Chancellor must use this Budget to score the growth and investment policy goals he put forward in his Autumn Statement. We also want to maximise the incentive for businesses to invest in Britain, so we're calling on the government to make some targeted changes to the UK tax system, which could make an impact on business decisions and create new opportunities for growth," John Cridland, CBI Director-General said. Labour, meanwhile, has called for an unfunded cut in value added tax, or a 3p cut to income tax, which almost certainly means those ideas will go to the very bottom of the list of things Osborne is likely to do. One of the key areas of speculation is what Osborne will do about pensions, with speculation rife that tax relief on pension plans for the wealthy will be slashed. The government is said to be considering cutting tax relief for those who earn £150,000 or over. Cutting pension relief is seen by some as a good option because the amount paid by the government has doubled in a decade, from £17.6bn in 2001-02 to £32.9bn in 2010-11. Prior to Osborne's big moment in the House of Commons, the minutes from the March meeting of the Bank of England's policy-making committee, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), will be released. Last month it emerged that there is a difference of views on the committee regarding the Bank's asset purchase programme, also known as quantitative easing (QE). MPC members David Miles and Adam Posen voted in favour of boosting the QE initiative by £75bn to £350bn, rather than the £50bn boost the MPC finally agreed on. Economists will have their fine-toothed combs at the ready to pore over the report to see whether there are any clues as to future policy on QE, with May seen as the earliest date by which the committee will address the issue of whether to boost the gilts purchasing programme some more.On the corporate front, three big retailers (Sainsbury, Next and Kingfisher) are set to report next week, while on Tuesday oil firm Cairn Energy, which appears to have blown hundreds of millions of pounds in a fruitless search for oil and gas off the coast of Greenland, will release its full year results.The Scottish oil company, already regarded as a villain by many environmentalists because of its drilling in Greenland's waters, caused amazement and consternation on the House of Commons environmental audit committee earlier this month when it admitted that it had not assessed the potential financial impact of a BP/Gulf of Mexico-style oil disaster in the Arctic.Richard Heaton, a former BP geologist who is now exploration director of Cairn, said the company was mopre focused on "putting in place the most robust preventative measures."The market is expecting profit before tax of £823m ($1.29bn) on revenue of £1.56bn ($2.45bn).On Monday, house builder Berkeley Group releases full year results which, according to Northland Capital Partners, should be underpinned by the "strong market dynamics in the London housing market.""No further information is expected on the capital return planned from 2015 to 2021 but in the light of a similar proposal from Persimmon, the management may wish to reiterate the key elements that are driving its cash flow strength to enable the £13 a share return," Northland speculated. Monday March 19INTERIMSRenewable Energy Generation Ltd.QUARTERLY EX-DIVIDEND DATETotal SAINTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSCurrent Account (EU) (09:00)GMSEnergetix GroupFINALSCapital Drilling Ltd. (DI), Etalon Group Ltd GDR (Reg S), Exillon Energy, PowerFilm Inc. (Reg S), Quindell Portfolio, Tamar European Industrial Fund Ltd., Vphase, XaarANNUAL REPORTArnoldo Mondadori Editore SPA, SpectrisIMSSBerkeley Group Holdings (The)Tuesday March 20INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS Producer Price Index (GER) (07:00)Building Permits (US) (12:30)Housing Starts (US) (12:30)GMSSVG CapitalFINALSBank Pekao SA GDS (Reg S), Cairn Energy, Charlemagne Capital Ltd., Gem Diamonds Ltd. (DI), Genel Energy, Hutchison China Meditech Ltd., Mears Group, Real Good Food Company, Restore, Severfield-Rowen, Source BioScience, T Clarke, UK Commercial Property Trust, UTV MediaANNUAL REPORTBank Pekao SA GDS (Reg S), London Capital Group HoldingsAGMSOctopus Titan VCT 3, Wynnstay GroupUK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSCBI Industrial Trends Surveys (11:00)Consumer Price Index  (09:30)Retail Price Index (09:30)FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATEDowning Income Vct 4Wednesday March 21INTERIM EX-DIVIDEND DATEAbcam, Brooks Macdonald Group, Close Brothers Group, Dunelm Group, Galliford Try, Go-Ahead Group, IndigoVision Group, London Finance & Investment Group, NWF Group, Quayle Munro Holdings, Smiths Group, TristelINTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSBoE Interest Rate Minutes (09:30)Crude Oil Inventories (US) (14:30)Existing Home Sales (US) (14:00)MBA Mortgage Applications (US) (11:00)FINALSEmpresaria Group, Eurasian Natural Resources Corp., IQE, Ted BakerANNUAL REPORTRolls-Royce HoldingsSPECIAL EX-DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATEMillennium & Copthorne HotelsEGMSCQS Rig Finance Fund Ltd.AGMSAmino Technologies, Horizonte Minerals, Safestore Holdings, Vision Opportunity China Fund Ltd.TRADING ANNOUNCEMENTSSainsbury (J)UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSChancellor Budget Statement (12:30)Public Sector Finances (09:30)FINAL EX-DIVIDEND DATEAthelney Trust, Aviva, Chemring Group, French Connection Group, Heavitree Brewery, Heavitree Brewery 'A' Shares, InterContinental Hotels Group, Low & Bonar, Maintel Holdings, Millennium & Copthorne Hotels, Mithras Inv Trust, PPHE Hotel Group Ltd, SEGRO, Standard LifeThursday March 22INTERIMSEvocutisINTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATEBHP BillitonQUARTERLY PAYMENT DATERoyal Dutch Shell 'A', Royal Dutch Shell 'B', Total SA, Unilever, Virgin Media Inc.INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSBloomberg Consumer Confidence (US) (13:45)Consumer Confidence Indicator (EU) (10:00)Continuing Claims (US) (12:30)House Price Index (US) (14:00)Industrial New Orders (EU) (10:00)Initial Jobless Claims (US) (12:30)Leading Indicators (US) (14:00)GMSAqua Bounty Technologies Inc. (Reg S)FINALSAlliance Pharma, APR Energy, BrainJuicer Group, Cyprotex, Delcam, EG Solutions, Kingfisher, Next, Portmeirion Group, Premier Oil, Scisys, Signet Jewelers Ltd., Skyepharma, Sopheon, Sphere Medical Holding, Trap Oil Group, Tribal GroupEGMSHellenic Telecom Industries SA ADSAGMSIona Environmental VCT 'A' Shares, Jarvis Securities, Throgmorton TrustTRADING ANNOUNCEMENTSUnited Utilities GroupUK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSInternet Retail Sales (09:30)Retail Sales (09:30)Friday March 23INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATEForesight VCT, Hargreaves Services, Medusa Mining Ltd. (DI), Ruffer Investment Company Ltd., SSEQUARTERLY PAYMENT DATEBank of America Corp., Duet Real Estate Finance LtdINTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSNew Homes Sales (US) (14:00)GMSMacquarie Korea Infrastructure Fund GDRSFINALSCharles Taylor Consulting, Inspired Energy, Phoenix Group Holdings (DI), Robinson, TawaANNUAL REPORTAegon NV, Coca-Cola HBC S.A., Elementis, Jarvis Securities, Lloyds Banking Group, Provident FinancialSPECIAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATEeasyJetAGMSIncome & Growth VCT , Lotte Shopping Co. Ltd Regs/144a, St. Modwen PropertiesUK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSBBA Mortgage Lending Figures (09:30)FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATEBrunner Inv Trust, Driver Group, easyJet, LPA Group