Wednesday preview: Tullow Oil, Admiral, Serco

23rd Aug 2011 17:32

Broker finnCap thinks there is a good chance that Tullow Oil will cut its full-year guidance, after its partner on the Jubilee field, Kosmos Energy, reported a slower than expected ramp-up of production at the field, located off the coast of Ghana."Current guidance is 90-94mboepd [million barrels of oil equivalent per day] and we are forecasting 88.9mboepd, having already anticipated these difficulties," finnCap said.Tullow is now expected to hit full production at its Jubilee field in December, rather than the originally targeted August. Car insurance specialist Admiral should see strong growth in policy sales, Nomura predicts. "Commentary from Aviva, RSA, RBSI [Direct Line and Churchill] and AXA suggested motor rates continuing to increase, and against this backdrop, we expect Admiral to book strong policy growth," Nomura said. "In addition, one of the reasons Admiral had such strong growth in policy count in 2010 (+32%) and 1Q [first quarter] 2011 (c33%) was in part attaining market share from RBSI, and we note RBSI again decreased in force policies in Q2 2011 by 3% vs 1Q 2011. We look for 33% growth in group policy count for 1H [the first half], in line with Q1," the broker added.Outsourcer Serco is expected by broker Panmure Gordon to announce half-year revenue of £2.23bn, around 4% ahead of last year's interim figure. Underlyng earnings before interest, tax and amortisation is seen rising to £132.9m from £115.6m last year. "Our headline adjusted PBT [profit before tax] forecast comes out at £118.9m vs. £110.2m last year, which, if achieved would imply adjusted EPS [earnings per share ] increases c10% YOY [year-on-year] to 17.8p vs. 16.2p in 2010A. Cash flow is expected to continue to be strong although the £97.4m net cash delivered last year is likely to move to around £293m of net debt after factoring in £395m for acquisitions. A dividend of 2.5p compared to 2.2p delivered last year has been pencilled in," the broker said.The trading themes are expected to centre around contract win momentum, Panmure Gordon reckons, with activity in UK prisons expected to prompt further news flow. "News on large bids for MoD army recruitment, Peterborough Council and Lincolnshire Police are also expected in H2 2011E [second half of 2011] and should provide further upside potential," Panmure Gordon said. INTERIMSAdmiral Group, Alpha UK Multi Property Trust, Ark Therapeutics Group, Axis-Shield, Carillion, Clarkson, Derwent London, Forth Ports, Hardy Oil & Gas, Henry Boot, Melrose, New World Resources A Shares, New World Resources NV A Shares, North Midland Construction, OJSC Magnit GDR (Reg S), Plaza Centers NV, Serco Group, Tullow Oil, Unite Group, WPPINTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATEMicrogenINTERIM EX-DIVIDEND DATEAcencia Debt Strategies Ltd., BBA Aviation, Brewin Dolphin Holdings, Capital & Counties Properties , Catlin Group Ltd., Communisis, CRH, Eurasian Natural Resources Corp., Fidessa Group, Henderson Opportunities Trust, InterContinental Hotels Group, Japan Residential Investment Co Ltd., Lancashire Holdings, London Capital Group Holdings, Matrix Income & Growth VCT, Maven Income & Growth 4 VCT, Maven Income & Growth 4 VCT 'S' Shares, Patsystems, Quadnetics Group, Rights & Issues Inv Trust Income Shares, Rotork, UK Select Trust Ltd., United Business Media Ltd., Witan Inv Trust, XaarQUARTERLY EX-DIVIDEND DATECanaccord Financial Inc.INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSCrude Oil Inventories (US) (15:30)Durable Goods Orders (US) (13:30)House Price Index (US) (15:00)IFO Business Climate (GER) (09:00)IFO Current Assessment (GER) (09:00)IFO Expectations (GER) (09:00)Industrial New Orders (EU) (10:00)MBA Mortgage Applications (US) (12:00)GMSAcorn Income Fund Ltd., AIM InvestmentsFINALSBHP BillitonSPECIAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATESt Peter Port Capital Ltd.SPECIAL EX-DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATEPHSCEGMSAurora Russia Ltd.AGMSAbbeycrest, AIM Investments, Creightons, Latham (James), ProVen Growth & Income VCT, ProVen VCT, Provexis, Puma VCT V, Sutton Harbour HoldingsFINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATEHalma, St Peter Port Capital Ltd.FINAL EX-DIVIDEND DATEAtkins (WS), Bloomsbury Publishing, City of London Group, Downing Distribution VCT 'D' Shares, Downing Distribution VCT 2 , First Property Group, Park Group, PHSC