UK manufacturing output volumes fall in Q1, but outlook stabilises

20th Mar 2026 10:48

(Sharecast News) - Manufacturing output across the UK is expected to stabilise over the coming three months, according to a survey out on Friday by the Confederation of British Industries, following a fall in activity over the first quarter.

The CBI's Industrial Trends Survey showed that more manufacturing firms reported a decline in output volumes over the three months to March, than in the quarter to February, with the weighted balance on output volumes falling to -23% from -14%.

The net balance represents the weighted percentage of companies reporting an increase minus those reporting a decrease.

Output fell across 11 of the CBI's 17 sub-sectors it tracks, with the largest declines seen across food, drink, tobacco, mechanical engineering, metal products and chemicals industries.

Order books remained below the long-run average at -27%, relatively unchanged from the -28% reported previously, though the decline in export order books eased slightly to -14% from -26%.

Meanwhile, selling price pressures with the balance of firms expecting increases falling to +12% from +26%, ahead of the long-run average of +8%.

Looking ahead, manufacturers predicated that output volumes would be "broadly flat" in the three months to June, according to the CBI, representing the least pessimistic outlook in 12 months.

"There are signs that conditions are beginning to stabilise for manufacturers, with a long period of falling output expected to bottom out and selling price growth anticipated to slow over the next three months," said Cameron Martin, the CBI's senior economist.

"Conditions remain challenging nonetheless, with the orders pipeline still historically weak. The conflict in the Middle East is pushing up energy costs and risks further disrupting supply chains, adding to the cost pressures already facing manufacturers."