Tuesday preview: Whitbread, Bellway, Booker

12th Oct 2009 15:16

It's been a bad year for hotel operators but last week's better than expected third quarter figures from US group Marriott Hotels suggested things are starting to pick up. The share price of Whitbread, which owns the Premier Inn hotel chain, got a lift from its US peer's results, adding to the share price strength seen since early September, when the company said profits this year would be at the higher end of market forecasts.Notwithstanding the above broker Charles Stanley is expecting 'a weak set of interim results, reflecting the impact of the hotel industry downturn on Premier Inn.'The broker is going for interim pre-tax profit of £110m, down from £123m a year earlier, on revenue of £698m (£682m). That's below Panmure Gordon's estimates of profit before tax of £113.8m on sales of £698.6m, and, indeed, Charles Stanley's forecast is at the bottom of the consensus range which runs from £110m to £118m. Panmure Gordon thinks the interim dividend will be maintained at 9.65p.Budget hotel chain Premier Inn had been expected in some quarters to benefit from the trading down phenomenon during the recession but has seen mid-market operators move down into its price bracket. Premier Inn's like for like sales in the 24 weeks to 13 August were down 7.7%, slightly better than the previous three months. Revenue per available room at (9.4%) has improved from the first quarter run rate, the company added.The Costa Coffee chain is likely to prove the brightest spot in the Whitbread portfolio. The chain's like for like sales rose 2.7% in the 24 weeks to 13 August.Shareholders in house construction firm Bellway are bracing themselves for a sizeable fall in full year profits but hope there will be light at the end of the tunnel in the form of improved trading since the 31 July year-end, and an absence of write downs in the value of the land bank.Market consensus is for pre-tax profit to fall from £34.76m last year to £26.56m this year on sales of £670.7m, down from £1.15bn. The company said back in August it legally completed the sale of 4,380 homes against 6,556 from last year. The average selling price was around £154,000 (2008: £169,729) Bellway said the fall of 9.3% in its average selling price was primarily as a result of incentives offered and a higher percentage of social housing sales. Sales incentives per unit, through discounting, shared equity and part exchange, have been widely used but have not increased over the last few months. It is anticipated that the operating margin will be around 6% - 7%.Cash and carry outfit Booker saw a slight deceleration in like for like sales growth in the 12 weeks to 11 September but growth was still a very creditable 7.6%, compared to 7.8% in the 12 weeks to 19 June.Singer Capital markets thinks half year pre-tax profit will be in the region of £29.2m on a reported basis. It is tipping the interim dividend will be bumped up to 0.27p from 0.20p.'We expect an update on a variety of the group's current growth initiatives alongside these results, and we may also get some initial feedback on the branch opening in Mumbai, albeit it is just a few weeks old,' Singer said.The British Retail Consortium's retail sales monitor for September will be released from embargo after midnight. Economists are predicting a 3.0% rise from September 2008, after August's 2.2% year on year rise.On a like for like basis September's retail sales are expected to be up 0.9% on a year ago after August's 0.1% year on year fall.The housing market survey from the Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors will be competing for newsprint with the retail sales data. The figures are expected to show a continued revival in the UK housing market with the number of buyer enquiries rising for the 11th month on the spin.This should be accompanied by the sixth successive month of higher sale completions per surveyor.Sticking with housing, the Department for Communities and Local Government's house price index is predicted to show an easing in the pace at which house prices are falling. Pundits predict the August index will be down 5.8% on a year earlier, having been down 8.3% year on year in July.INTERIMSBooker Group, Burberry Group (Q2), Crawshaw Group, INVU, WhitbreadINTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATEWellstream HoldingsFINALSAnglo & Overseas, Bellway, Connaught, Scottish Oriental Smaller CompaniesAGMSGoldplat, Max Petroleum, Standard Life UK Smaller Companies TrustUK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSBRC Sales Monitor (10:30)RICS House Price Balance (00:01)DCLG House Prices (09:30)Consumer Prices (09:30)Retail Prices (09:30)INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSBank OF Japan MPC MeetingConsumer Prices (FRA) (07:45)Current Account (FRA) (07:45)ZEW Economic Sentiment (GER) (10:00)ZEW Current Assessment (GER) (10:00)ZEW Economic Sentiment (GER) (10:00)FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATEHMV Group, IG Group Holdings