Tuesday preview: Americas to rev up IHG

13th Feb 2012 18:19

Hotelier InterContinental Hotels Group (IHG) is set to declare full year figures on Tuesday. Market consensus (in sterling terms) is for profit before tax of £302.9m on revenue of £1,113m. The full year pay-out is predicted to be 33.77p. In dollar terms, the consensus is for earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) of $544m on the back of $1,761m in revenue. EBIT from the Americas is tipped to be in the region of $442m.Credit Suisse has taken the precaution of revising its forecasts ahead of the results, moving them in an upward direction, as it thinks fourth quarter numbers will be ahead of the market consensus. Credit Suisse predicts revenue (in dollar terms) of $1,756.1m and pre-tax profit of $495.5m. Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation is tipped to rise to $671.1m. The Swiss bank thinks there may be a disposal or two round the corner for the Holiday Inns owner. "The disposal of the IC Barclay looks increasingly likely, in our view, following a number of recent Manhattan transactions and this potentially adds $300-350m to IHG's firepower. We estimate a $1.0bn cash return is 9% accretive to 2013E EPS [2013 estimated earnings per share]," Credit Suisse said.Panmure Gordon, meanwhile, is another broker that has turned more bullish on IHG ahead of results, upping its target price to 1555p from 1420p.The broker thinks the dividend will be 50.4 cents and net debt will be $442m."Weekly RevPar [revenue per available room] data from the US has been very encouraging (we estimate Jan RevPar c+7%) and we expect the group to report an upbeat start to 2012E [fiscal 2012]. Given the strength of the US hotel market we look for management to reaffirm its commitment to dispose of the InterContinental NY Barclay in 2012. We have previously estimated that this sale could lead to a $250m cash return to shareholders, which would increase EPS by c2-3%," Panmure Gordon said."Europe, Middle East and Greater China will likely come under some demand pressure but we think the group's fee based model leaves it well positioned to outperform. We think the risk to consensus forecasts lies on the upside," the broker added.INTERIMSHargreaves ServicesINTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSBusiness Inventories (US) (13:30)Import and Export Price Indexes (US) (13:30)Industrial Production (EU) (10:00)Manufacturing Inventories (US) (15:00)Retail Sales (US) (13:45)Retail Sales Inventories (US) (15:15)ZEW Survey (EU) (10:00)ZEW Survey (GER) (10:00)Q3Reliance Infrastructure Ltd. GDR (Reg S), Yell GroupFINALSBrammer, Hrvatske Telekom D.D GDR (Reg S), InterContinental Hotels Group, Telekomunikacja Polska S.A GDR (Reg S)AGMSNasstarUK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSConsumer Price Index (09:30)Retail Price Index (09:30)RICS Housing Market Survey (09:30)FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATEDewhurst, Dewhurst (Non-Voting) jh