Share Search
Visit the Share Search
Thursday preview: BoE, ECB and BT Group in focus
2nd Feb 2022 10:16
(Sharecast News) - All eyes on Thursday will be on central bank policy decisions in the UK and euro area.
The Monetary Policy Committee is expected to vote again in favour of a hike in Bank Rate, but of 25 basis points this time around, while keeping its stock of asset purchases unchanged.
As recently as 28 January, economists at Barclays Research were anticipating that the Monetary Policy Committee would push back on expectations for policy tightening.
Nevertheless, they would leave the door open to back-to-back rate hikes at their March and May meetings, Barclays said in a research note sent to clients.
The European Central Bank's governing council was also expected to stand pat on policy.
But here too there were clear risks after the annual rate of euro area CPI came in at a surprisingly strong and record 5.1% for January.
That print meant that at some point in 2022 higher medium-term inflation forecasts could "open the door for a more rapid removal of stimulus than currently pencilled-in, not to mention outright tightening", said Claus Vistesen, chief Eurozone economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics.
Key purchasing managers survey results for services sector activity in the UK, US and euro area are also due out, with markets likely keen to survey the damage to levels of activity from Omicron.
On the company front, consensus is for BT Group to post a 1.6% decline in third quarter sales to £5.39bn, following drops of 3.4% and 2.2%, respectively over the previous two quarters.
Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation meanwhile are seen up by 1.5% to £1.91bn.
For UBS analyst Polo Tang, investors will focus on fiscal year 2022 guidance, the potential impact of a delayed recovery in Enterprise/GS due to the uncertainty around the pandemic, updates on a potential sales of BT Sport and any commentary around FY 2023 guidance for EBITDA of £7.9bn.
Tang points out how the recent 9.3% hike in consumer prices might add "upside", but cautions that wage inflation could offset and that 2023 guidance is more likely to be provided alongside the company's fourth quarter numbers.
But in any case, the main debate for investors are the longer-term prospects for its Openreach unit, given rising infrastructure competition and cost inflation, he added.
On the flip-side, recent above-inflation price rises and stake building by Altice should be supportive of the share price.
"We remain cautious on sector fundamentals that could constrain relative earnings momentum in the near-term, but M&A and the benefit of the EU Recovery Fund could make investors more constructive on the sector."
Thursday 3 February
FINALS
Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA, Shell 'B', Shell 'A'
INTERIMS
Renishaw
Q3
BT Group
Q4
Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA, Shell 'B', Shell, Shell 'A'
TRADING ANNOUNCEMENTS
Cranswick, Seen, Virgin Wines UK
AGMS
Agronomics Limited, Baillie Gifford European Growth Trust, Future, Hargreave Hale AIM VCT, Sage Group, Hyve Group, JPMorgan Indian Investment Trust, Unicorn AIM VCT, Ten Lifestyle Group, Compass Group
FINAL EX-DIVIDEND DATE
Blackrock Income And Growth Investment Trust, JPMorgan Russian Securities, Baronsmead Venture Trust, Ramsdens Holdings, Treatt, Baronsmead Second Venture Trust
INTERIM EX-DIVIDEND DATE
RBG Holdings, Edinburgh Inv Trust, Albion Enterprise VCT, M & G Credit Income Investment Trust, North American Income Trust (The)
Downing One VCT, Polar Capital Global Healthcare Trust, GCP Asset Backed Income Fund Limited, DWF Group, GCP Infrastructure Investments Ltd, Axiom European Financial Debt Fund Limited, JPMorgan Global Core Real Assets Limited, JPMorgan Russian Securities, Henderson International Income Trust, Ecofin Global Utilities and Infrastructure Trust, Home Reit, PayPoint, Starwood European Real Estate Finance Ltd, Taylor Maritime Investments Limited NPV, IG Group Holdings, CVC Credit Partners European Opportunities Ltd GBP, EJF Investments Ltd NPV, Totally, CVC Credit Partners European Opportunities Ltd EURO, Residential Secure Income, Dunedin Income Growth Inv Trust, Marwyn Value Investors Limited, Blackstone Loan Financing Limited (EUR)
INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
XPS Pensions Group, Gabelli Merger Plus+ Trust
QUARTERLY EX-DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Chenavari Toro Income Fund Limited NPV, Merchants Trust, JPMorgan Claverhouse Inv Trust, Picton Property Income Ltd, Greencoat Renewables (CDI)
UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
PMI Services (09:30)
BoE Interest Rate Decision (12:00)
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
PMI Composite (GER) (08:55)
PMI Services (GER) (08:55)
PMI Composite (EU) (09:00)
PMI Services (EU) (09:00)
Producer Price Index (EU) (10:00)
ECB Interest Rate (EU) (12:45)
Continuing Claims (US) (13:30)
Initial Jobless Claims (US) (13:30)
PMI Services (US) (14:45)
PMI Composite (US) (14:45)
Factory Orders (US) (15:00)
ISM Prices Paid (US) (15:00)
ISM Services (US) (15:00)
The Monetary Policy Committee is expected to vote again in favour of a hike in Bank Rate, but of 25 basis points this time around, while keeping its stock of asset purchases unchanged.
As recently as 28 January, economists at Barclays Research were anticipating that the Monetary Policy Committee would push back on expectations for policy tightening.
Nevertheless, they would leave the door open to back-to-back rate hikes at their March and May meetings, Barclays said in a research note sent to clients.
The European Central Bank's governing council was also expected to stand pat on policy.
But here too there were clear risks after the annual rate of euro area CPI came in at a surprisingly strong and record 5.1% for January.
That print meant that at some point in 2022 higher medium-term inflation forecasts could "open the door for a more rapid removal of stimulus than currently pencilled-in, not to mention outright tightening", said Claus Vistesen, chief Eurozone economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics.
Key purchasing managers survey results for services sector activity in the UK, US and euro area are also due out, with markets likely keen to survey the damage to levels of activity from Omicron.
On the company front, consensus is for BT Group to post a 1.6% decline in third quarter sales to £5.39bn, following drops of 3.4% and 2.2%, respectively over the previous two quarters.
Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation meanwhile are seen up by 1.5% to £1.91bn.
For UBS analyst Polo Tang, investors will focus on fiscal year 2022 guidance, the potential impact of a delayed recovery in Enterprise/GS due to the uncertainty around the pandemic, updates on a potential sales of BT Sport and any commentary around FY 2023 guidance for EBITDA of £7.9bn.
Tang points out how the recent 9.3% hike in consumer prices might add "upside", but cautions that wage inflation could offset and that 2023 guidance is more likely to be provided alongside the company's fourth quarter numbers.
But in any case, the main debate for investors are the longer-term prospects for its Openreach unit, given rising infrastructure competition and cost inflation, he added.
On the flip-side, recent above-inflation price rises and stake building by Altice should be supportive of the share price.
"We remain cautious on sector fundamentals that could constrain relative earnings momentum in the near-term, but M&A and the benefit of the EU Recovery Fund could make investors more constructive on the sector."
Thursday 3 February
FINALS
Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA, Shell 'B', Shell 'A'
INTERIMS
Renishaw
Q3
BT Group
Q4
Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA, Shell 'B', Shell, Shell 'A'
TRADING ANNOUNCEMENTS
Cranswick, Seen, Virgin Wines UK
AGMS
Agronomics Limited, Baillie Gifford European Growth Trust, Future, Hargreave Hale AIM VCT, Sage Group, Hyve Group, JPMorgan Indian Investment Trust, Unicorn AIM VCT, Ten Lifestyle Group, Compass Group
FINAL EX-DIVIDEND DATE
Blackrock Income And Growth Investment Trust, JPMorgan Russian Securities, Baronsmead Venture Trust, Ramsdens Holdings, Treatt, Baronsmead Second Venture Trust
INTERIM EX-DIVIDEND DATE
RBG Holdings, Edinburgh Inv Trust, Albion Enterprise VCT, M & G Credit Income Investment Trust, North American Income Trust (The)
Downing One VCT, Polar Capital Global Healthcare Trust, GCP Asset Backed Income Fund Limited, DWF Group, GCP Infrastructure Investments Ltd, Axiom European Financial Debt Fund Limited, JPMorgan Global Core Real Assets Limited, JPMorgan Russian Securities, Henderson International Income Trust, Ecofin Global Utilities and Infrastructure Trust, Home Reit, PayPoint, Starwood European Real Estate Finance Ltd, Taylor Maritime Investments Limited NPV, IG Group Holdings, CVC Credit Partners European Opportunities Ltd GBP, EJF Investments Ltd NPV, Totally, CVC Credit Partners European Opportunities Ltd EURO, Residential Secure Income, Dunedin Income Growth Inv Trust, Marwyn Value Investors Limited, Blackstone Loan Financing Limited (EUR)
INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
XPS Pensions Group, Gabelli Merger Plus+ Trust
QUARTERLY EX-DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Chenavari Toro Income Fund Limited NPV, Merchants Trust, JPMorgan Claverhouse Inv Trust, Picton Property Income Ltd, Greencoat Renewables (CDI)
UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
PMI Services (09:30)
BoE Interest Rate Decision (12:00)
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
PMI Composite (GER) (08:55)
PMI Services (GER) (08:55)
PMI Composite (EU) (09:00)
PMI Services (EU) (09:00)
Producer Price Index (EU) (10:00)
ECB Interest Rate (EU) (12:45)
Continuing Claims (US) (13:30)
Initial Jobless Claims (US) (13:30)
PMI Services (US) (14:45)
PMI Composite (US) (14:45)
Factory Orders (US) (15:00)
ISM Prices Paid (US) (15:00)
ISM Services (US) (15:00)