Thursday preview: Astra, BG, Unilever

28th Apr 2010 18:27

Barring another sovereign debt ratings downgrade from Standard & Poor's on Thursday the headlines are likely to be hogged by results from AstraZeneca, BG Group, British Sky Broadcasting, Shire, Unilever and Whitbread. First quarter results from Anglo-Swedish drugs giant Astra will be out at 11:00am BST. Revenues are expected to be in the region of $3.4bn while pre-tax profit is forecast to be $3.08bn or thereabouts. Analysts have pencilled in a figure of $2.5bn for net income, which suggests earnings per share of $1.72.On a drug by drug basis consensus sales figures are as follows: Crestor - $1.24bn; Seroquel - $1.24bn; Nexium - $1.16bn; Symbicort - $647m; Arimidex - $472m and Atacand - $348m."Results should be buoyed by the US dollar and a likely one-off tax benefit which should take the tax charge down to c23% versus 28.6% over the equivalent quarter in 2009," reckons Charles Stanley, while Citicorp thinks the tax charge could be as low as 21%.Oil titan BG Group will follow in the footsteps of its bigger brethren BP and Shell in reporting first quarter figures, which will be in US dollars for the first time. Panmure Gordon is predicting total operating profits of $1,7893m and net income of $882m. "The main earnings growth driver will be the E&P {exploration and production] business as the company is able to benefit from stronger oil and gas prices," the broker said.Charles Stanley is more optimistic and expects net income to fall back to $950m, down from $1.01bn in the first quarter of 2009. "Although BG Group has made considerable progress in Q1, the earnings outcome is subdued because of last year's strong comparative from the LNG [liquefied natural gas] division," Charles Stanley opines. "In Exploration & Production, Q1 should show operational improvements as production volumes are expected to improve and profit could show an uplift to about $1bn (2009; $834m). In LNG, we expect BG Group to report a Q1 profit of $500m (2009; $741m)," Charles Stanley adds. "Transmission and Distribution is expected to produce a Q1 profit of $120m compared to $106m a year ago. The Power Generation division could report an underlying profit of $75m (2009; $1m) but there may be an exceptional write-down relating to the sale of the North American business," the broker predicted.The post-Christmas quarter is normally a quiet one for British Sky Broadcasting (BSkyB) but Deutsche Bank thinks this year could be different because of Sky's hard sell on its high-definition (HD) offering."Making the HD box standard actually no means there is now no "free" and "low recurring cost" product on offer (you can have a box for free if you subscribe to HD or you can pay for an HD box and watch standard definition on it). That implies a small quarter for overall net adds (we model just 55k), but another big quarter for HD adds - we model 350k in what would otherwise be a seasonally quiet quarter," Deutsche says.Like its fellow pharmaceutical company Astra, Shire will be releasing its first quarter figures at a civilised hour, in this case noon (BST). Revenues are tipped to be around $758m and net income $157m. Earnings per share are forecast to be around $0.28.Nomura Securities expects Anglo-Dutch consumer products leviathan Unilever to "highlight concerns over pricing and heightened competitive pressures in HPC [household and personal care] (price reductions/ increasing media spend from peers) at a time when input cost inflation is returning to the system." The broker sees these pressures contributing to lower margins over the full year, but thinks first quarter earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) margin will be up by 20 basis points, versus market consensus of a 40 basis points improvement (1 basis point = one-hundredth of a percentage point).The market is expecting volume growth of 5.4% year on year. Once again, Charles Stanley takes a more optimistic view. "We look for a strong Q1 [first quarter] performance with organic sales ahead by c4.4% (volume +6.3%, price -1.9%), against a very easy comparator quarter over Q1 2009. Given that commodity costs remain subdued we see scope for a 0.3% point improvement in operating margins and the possibility that a strong set of results could act as the catalyst for upgraded consensus expectations, even at this early stage in the year," the broker said in its preview of Unilever's results. Premier Inn and Costa coffee shops owner Whitbread has had a good recession, largely as a result of a strong performance by Costa, but it could be time for the budget hotel chain to take up the running, Société Générale reckons, as there is ""clear evidence that the hotel cycle is going forward a bit faster than anticipated", citing strong first quarter sales in the UK recently announced by French hotels outfit Accor."We believe management could guide for slightly higher revenues per available room, or RevPar, for 2011 than before," Société Générale(SocGen) said. Panmure Gordon thinks the company will announce 2.0% RevPAR year on year growth for the first quarter of 2010 when it publishes its 2009 results. The broker reckons 2009 profit before tax will be £240.8m, putting it at the top of the range of forecasts which runs all the way down to £230m.SocGen expects "revenues to grow 4.3%, i.e. a solid achievement for the worst year ever in the Hotel industry that should reflect flat sales at Hotels, and a sharp improvement for Costa, thanks to massive supply growth in and outside the UK. EBITDA, EBIT and PBT are expected roughly flat at group level."INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSBusiness Climate Indicator (EU) (10:00)Consumer Confidence Indicator (EU) (10:00)Industrial Confidence (EU) (10:00)Economic Confidence (EC) (10:00)Service Sector Confidence (EU) (10:00)M3 Money Supply (EU) (09:00)PMI Retail (EU) (09:00)PMI Retail (GER) (08:55)Unemployment Rate (GER) (08:55)Continuing Claims (US) (13:30)Initial Jobless Claims (US) (13:30)Chicago Fed National Activity Index (US) (13:30)Jobless Claims (US) (13:30)Continuing Claims (US) (13:30)Q3British Sky Broadcasting GroupGMSAir ChinaFINALSCamellia, Randall & Quilter Investment, Silence Therapeutics, WhitbreadIMSSCharter International, Galiform, Go-Ahead Group, Jardine Lloyd Thompson Group, RPS Group, Standard Life, Taylor Wimpey, William HillEGMSUrals Energy Public CompanyAGMSAbbey Protection, Aegon , AstraZeneca, BBA Aviation, Brady, Charter International, China Gateway International, COLT Telecom Group S.A., Crosby Asset Management, Fiberweb, Hammerson, Hexaware Technologies GDS (Reg S), Hongkong Land Holding Ltd. (Bermuda), Jardine Lloyd Thompson Group, Komercni Banka GDR (Level 1), NEOVIA Financial, Novae Group, PartyGaming, Pendragon, Powerflute Oyj, SEGRO, SpaceandPeople, Stratex International, Symphony International Holdings, Taylor Wimpey, Torchmark CorpTRADING ANNOUNCEMENTSHMV Group, Standard LifeUK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSPMI Retail (09:30)FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE4imprint Group, Herald Inv TrustQ1AstraZeneca, BG Group, Coca-Cola Hellenic Bottling Company SA, Shire Plc, Unilever