Ryanair withholds profit guidance due to poor visibility, surging fuel costs

18th May 2026 07:32

(Sharecast News) - Ryanair has said it is "far too early" to provide profit guidance for the current financial year as a result of material uncertainty linked to the spike in jet fuel prices and other rising costs, while summer fares are likely to fall year-on-year.

The budget airline said that 80% of its jet fuel requirements for the year to 31 March 2027 have been hedged at $67 a barrel, but spot prices for the unhedged 20% have surged to over $150 a barrel due to the Middle East conflict.

Meanwhile, EU environmental taxes will rise by a further €300m this year to €1.5bn, maintenance costs are rising due to an ageing fleet, while negotiations with crew have led to "significant" pay increases.

Furthermore, the airline said fares over the first quarter will be lower year-on-year, compared with earlier forecasts of low single-digit growth, due to the the timing of Easter this year (falling into March and benefitting the fourth quarter instead of the first quarter) and constrained EU short-haul capacity. Second-quarter pricing is also now trending broadly flat.

"With zero H2 visibility and significant fuel price/potential supply volatility it is far too early to provide any meaningful FY27 profit guidance at this time," the company said.

"The final FY27 outcome remains heavily exposed to adverse external developments, incl. conflict escalation in the Middle East and Ukraine, risks to fuel supply shortages, higher for longer fuel prices on our unhedged 20%, macro-economic shocks and European ATC strikes & mismanagement."

The update overshadowed strong full-year results from the carrier on Monday, with profit after tax (PAT) up 40% at €2.26bn, as revenues rose 11% to €15.54bn.

Passenger numbers were up just 4% at 208.4m, and the load factor was unchanged 94%, but fares were increased by 10% following a 7% fare decline the year before.

Ryanair also revealed that it was close to concluding employment contract discussions with chief executive Michael O'Leary regarding the extension of his deal from 2028 to 2032.

"Under the proposed new contract, MOL will have a purchase option over 10m shares struck at market price (before the recent Iran war related decline), but (similar to his 2019 grant) these options will only be exercisable if very ambitious PAT or share price growth targets are achieved, which will create substantial value for all shareholders," the company said.

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