Retail sales decline at slowest pace in 18 months - CBI

26th Oct 2026 12:51

(Sharecast News) - The retail sector's golden quarter got off to a better-than-expected start in October, a closely-watched survey showed on Monday, after the pace of sales decline slowed notably.

According to the latest distributive trades survey from the Confederation of British Industry, retail sales volumes in the year to October contracted at the slowest pace since April 2025, with the weighted balance improving to -10 from -55 in September. Consensus had been for a far more subdued showing, and a balance of -47

Retail sales were also judged to be broadly average for the time of year for the first time since May 2024, with a balance of to -3 compared to September's -40.

Looking ahead, respondents expected sales to decline at roughly the same pace in November, with a balance of -10.

Martin Sartorius, lead economist at the CBI, noted that wholesalers and motor traders had also flagged signs of activity steadying over the period.

However, he cautioned: "The outlook remains fragile as businesses face headwinds from cautious household spending and higher fuel costs. This week's Budget must give firms in the distribution sector the breathing space required to support stronger trading conditions. Cutting employer National Insurance contributions and delivering meaningful business rates reform would ease the cost burden on retailers, wholesalers and motor traders, helping them to invest, hire and grow."

Chancellor John Healey will present his first Budget on Wednesday, and will need to juggle pressure to reign in government spending and borrowing alongside mounting inflation and sluggish economic growth.

Most retailers expect to make significant profits during the final three months of the year, as consumers splash out on Christmas and other festivities.

The CBI survey was carried between 28 September and 14 October. A total of 183 firms responded, 68 of which were retailers and 98 were wholesalers.

A balance is the weighted difference between the percentage of firms reporting an increase and those reporting a decrease.