Oil price jumps above $80 in OTC trade; Opec+ agrees modest output rise

1st Mar 2026 20:16

(Sharecast News) - Brent crude prices surged to around $80 a barrel in early Asian trade as the US and Israel started a war of regime change against Iran, with Supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Kohmenei assassinated on Saturday along with other key members of the ruling administration.

Brent had been climbing ahead of the first airstrikes early Saturday as tensions with the US mounted, closing at a seven-month high of $73 a barrel on Friday.

Over-the-counter trades had pushed the price above $80 a barrel on the weekend. These trades are conducted directly between parties instead of through a centralised exchange and can take place outside regular business hours.

Iranian output was 4.7 million barrels a day in 2025, accounting for 4.4% of global oil supplies. Most of its production is under international sanctions and is shipped to China using the so-called "shadow fleet" of falsely flagged tankers.

Meanwhile, Opec+ nations on Sunday agreed to raise output slightly by 206,000 barrels per day (bpd) in April - ending a three month pause - even as Middle East shipments were disrupted by the war on Iran with tankers stalled on either side of the vital Strait of Hormuz which accounts for about a fifth of the world's shipments.

The group confirmed the decision in an official statement after its meeting and involved Saudi Arabia, Russia, the UAE, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman.

"While this is a small increase, it is very symbolic that the world's major oil producing nations and willing to react to the crisis and adjust supply to stop an oil price shock," said XTB research director Kathleen Brooks.

"These are positive developments that could see any upside in the oil price get capped initially at around $80 a barrel for Brent crude, and the crisis, for now, is unlikely to trigger $100 a barrel oil.

"It is also worth noting that the oil price has rallied into this crisis, and Brent crude is higher by nearly 8% in the past month as tensions have been building in the region. Thus, part of the conflict has been priced into the oil price already."

Shipowners have halted voyages after receiving warnings that the waterway was closed with several ships have also come under attack as Iran retaliated, with a US-sanctioned oil tanker hit in Oman and another vessel reporting that an "unknown projectile" exploded "in very close proximity" 35 nautical miles west of Sharjah in the United Arab Emirates, according to the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations Centre.

Container shipping giant Hapag-Lloyd said it was suspending services through the strait along with the strategically important Bab el-Mandeb Strait which connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden.

Situated between Yemen on the Arabian Peninsula and Djibouti and Eritrea in the Horn of Africa, it serves as a crucial maritime passage but could leave vessels subject to attach from Iran-backed Houthi rebels based in Yemen.

Ports company DP World suspended operations at the Jebel Ali port in Dubai, and the Mediterranean Shipping Company stopped booking for worldwide cargo into the Middle East until further notice. Other facilities in Bahrain and Oman were also closed.

Reporting by Frank Prenesti for Sharecast.com