Oil, Life Insurance and Banking would pay steepest price for independence, Liberum says

18th Sep 2014 12:54

In a research note published on Thursday afternoon Liberum explains to clients that in the event of Scotland voting in favour of independence then the worst affected sectors would be: Oil, Life Insurance and Banking.The analysts base their call on what happened following the mini-scare of 8 September after a weekend poll showed the yes camp in the lead in the latest Scottish polls.On that ocassion the stocks which fell the most were: Lamprell, Babcock and Brewin Dolphin.Also to be had in account, many companies can be expected to take a hit given that they carry pension schemes with Scottish beneficiaries. Those would be classified as "cross-border" under EU law. That means that any actuarial deficit – as opposed to that reported under IAS 19 – would need to be eliminated.The five largest affected companies due to the pensions hit would be BAE, BT, Tesco, Sainsbury and G4S.Lloyds and RBS could see a relief rally of between 3% and 5% should Scots vote no, they add.Sterling can be expected to weaken materially under a yes scenario, with Imagination being the company most likely to benefit given its 60% exposure to the US dollar.Meanwhile, the housing market has been impacted by the referendum, as uncertainties about the future could make people delay the decision of buying a house and undermine confidence in real estate."A no vote should lead to a bounce in housebuilders' shares as they are all 100% UK exposed, and we suspect that all UK domestics have come under pressure in the run-up to this referendum due to heightened uncertainty and overseas selling," analyst Charlie Campbell wrote.Oil and gas companies with ongoing operations should not be affected by the referendum, but the UK North Sea could be impacted by uncertainty over fiscal policy.According to the Liberum Consumer Survey, an independent Scotland would favour a larger government, which would mean more spending on roads, council housing and less focus on tax cuts, while Ed Miliband is only marginally more popular than David Cameron.The new state would also have a more pro-EU attitude.