Broker tips: Antofagasta, Cerillion

14th Sep 2026 13:59

(Sharecast News) - Analysts at Berenberg upgraded Antofagasta from 'hold' to 'buy' on Monday, saying last week's sharp pullback in copper prices had created an attractive entry point, while keeping its 4,400p price target unchanged for around 16% upside.

Berenberg said the recent retreat in copper - down towards $14,200 a tonne after touching $15,000 - had dragged sector equities lower and opened "compelling" opportunities to add exposure.

It noted that part of the volatility reflected speculation over potential US tariffs on refined copper imports, which had pushed US inventories to record highs, but also argued such tariffs would be inflationary and therefore unlikely, adding that sentiment rather than fundamentals had driven the selloff.

The German bank described Antofagasta as a "high‑quality" copper producer with a strong growth profile and said it expects volumes to rise 27% between 2026 and 2028, from 646,000 tonnes to 818,000 tonnes, supported by higher grades at Los Pelambres and ramp‑up at the new Centinela second concentrator. By‑product growth in molybdenum and gold was also expected to help keep costs controlled and move the group further down the cost curve.

Capex was forecast to ease from 2027, with free cash flow rising from around $700m in 2026 to $3.1bn in 2027, implying a 6.2% yield. Berenberg said this outlook was underpinned by robust 66% to 68% underlying earnings margins.

Berenberg made only minor model changes and said the current share price offered an attractive entry point ahead of expected volume‑driven rerating over 2027-28. It now values the shares at 2.37x NAV and 7.8x 2027 EBITDA.

Canaccord Genuity cut its price target on Cerillion from 2,060p to 1,760p on Monday, after the software group warned that second‑half trading would be weaker than expected, leading to revenue and underlying earnings misses against consensus.

The Canadian bank said Cerillion had been set for a heavy second‑half weighting, supported by the Omantel contract and anticipated upgrades from existing customers, but several expansions and licence deals had been delayed or deferred.

As a result, Canaccord Genuity said the expected rebound will be "more muted", with revenue and adjusted EBITDA now forecast to fall 11% to 14% short of market expectations. Canaccord noted that the Omantel implementation remained on track and that the new‑customer pipeline was still healthy.

Canaccord Genuity now expects FY26 revenue growth of 2%, with lower licence sales and margins driving a 13% decline in adjusted EBIT and earnings per share. It also forecast a return to growth in FY27 as slipped deals and new wins come through.

Despite the setback, Canaccord said its long‑term view on Cerillion remained intact, describing the group as a structural market‑share gainer in the OSS/BSS software space. It argued that industry consolidation continued to create new opportunities for the company and that recent share‑price weakness offered a buying opportunity for long‑term investors.

Canaccord cut FY26-28 revenue estimates by around 11%, with margins softening to 38% this year, and reduced EPS forecasts by 18%. It maintained expectations for 10% revenue growth and modest margin expansion in FY27-28, supported by a strong balance sheet with £36m net cash.

Reporting by Iain Gilbert at Sharecast.com