BP spill cost seen below $20bn

13th Sep 2010 13:35

BP believes the true cost of the Gulf of Mexico disaster could be less than the $20bn (£13bn) it has parked in an escrow account to cover claims from victims of the oil spill.Analysts at Citigroup, who met with Bob Dudley, due to take over from Tony Hayward as chief executive on October 1, report that the figure "probably exceeds calls".Dudley told them the $32bn (£21bn) provision made for the leak is still the most reasonable estimate of the total cost.Claims by individual states in the along the Gulf coast "should not be too high".Citigroup reckons BP - which insists it was not ordered to cut its dividend by the US government - might begin paying a dividend in the fourth quarter of this year.But analysts at Sanford Bernstein think shareholders may have to wait until the first quarter before receiving their next payout. Three dividends have been cancelled already."BP's cashflow position should be just strong enough to support a restoration of dividends by 1Q 2011, under an $80/barrel oil price scenario based on estimates. However, this assumes divestments are completed," according to Bernstein analyst Iain Pyle.