Bernberg lowers target price on Energean following FY25 update

28th Jan 2026 09:46

(Sharecast News) - Analysts at Berenberg lowered their target price on Energean from 850p to 780p as it updated its model for the company's FY25 trading update,

Berenberg said Energean's update highlighted "a solid 2025" in terms of operational performance, with production at the top end of the recent guidance range.

However, Berenberg noted that guidance for 2026 was lower than consensus in terms of production, and higher than consensus in terms of capex and net debt.

In addition, Berenberg highlighted that Energean noted operational challenges at its important Cassiopea gas field in Italy - leading to a reserves downgrade, impairment and arbitration with the operator.

"On our updated forecasts, Energean trades on 2027 EV/EBITDA of 5.1x and EV/DACF of 4.0x," said the German bank, which has a 'hold' rating on the stock.

"We reduce our 2026 production forecast by 16%, contributing to a 19% and 22% reduction in our 2026 revenue and EBITDA forecasts respectively. Our 2026 year-end net debt forecast has increased by 13% to $3,278m, the upper end of guidance. Baked into net debt guidance is an expectation of improved recovery of receivables in Egypt; we think it prudent to take a cautious view of this given the country's track record on receivables in recent years."

Reporting by Iain Gilbert at Sharecast.com