Berenberg upgrades Antofagasta to 'buy'

14th Sep 2026 07:48

(Sharecast News) - Analysts at Berenberg upgraded Antofagasta from 'hold' to 'buy' on Monday, saying last week's sharp pullback in copper prices had created an attractive entry point, while keeping its 4,400p price target unchanged for around 16% upside.

Berenberg said the recent retreat in copper - down towards $14,200 a tonne after touching $15,000 - had dragged sector equities lower and opened "compelling" opportunities to add exposure.

It noted that part of the volatility reflected speculation over potential US tariffs on refined copper imports, which had pushed US inventories to record highs, but also argued such tariffs would be inflationary and therefore unlikely, adding that sentiment rather than fundamentals had driven the selloff.

The German bank described Antofagasta as a "high‑quality" copper producer with a strong growth profile and said it expects volumes to rise 27% between 2026 and 2028, from 646,000 tonnes to 818,000 tonnes, supported by higher grades at Los Pelambres and ramp‑up at the new Centinela second concentrator. By‑product growth in molybdenum and gold was also expected to help keep costs controlled and move the group further down the cost curve.

Capex was forecast to ease from 2027, with free cash flow rising from around $700m in 2026 to $3.1bn in 2027, implying a 6.2% yield. Berenberg said this outlook was underpinned by robust 66% to 68% underlying earnings margins.

Berenberg made only minor model changes and said the current share price offered an attractive entry point ahead of expected volume‑driven rerating over 2027-28. It now values the shares at 2.37x NAV and 7.8x 2027 EBITDA.

Reporting by Iain Gilbert at Sharecast.com