Week Ahead: Tesco, Punch Taverns, GDP

16th Apr 2010 11:58

Asda's soon to depart chief executive Andy Bond admitted on Thursday that the Wal-Mart owned supermarket chain has not been happy with its recent sales performance. That suggests that the market leader in the sector, Tesco, has recovered its poise after a slight wobble in the early days of the recession when some pundits doubted Tesco's ability to combat the deep discounters.We will find out just how well Tesco has been doing on Tuesday when it declares its full year results, though we already know that the company's UK operations had their best Christmas in three years. n the six weeks to January 9, the firm posted a 5.1% year-on-year rise in like-for-like sales excluding petrol and VAT at its UK business, ahead of expectations.Customers also took advantage of offers and double Clubcard points. Clubcard vouchers contributed 0.7% to UK like-for-like sales growth.Market consensus is for pre-tax profit of £3.21bn on sales of £58.5bn, up from profit of £2.95bn on sales of £54.33bn the year before."UK is forecast to report a 13.2% increase in trading profit to £2,695m, with operating margin progressing by 40bps [basis points] to 6.6%," according to Charles Stanley. "Like-for-like sales are forecast to be up by 3.0%, with growth slowing through the year as food price inflation has declined," the broker added.The results will include Tesco Bank as a wholly owned entity for the first time after the company bought out Royal Bank of Scotland's 50% stake. Charles Stanley is forecasting the bank will contribute £245m to profits.Pubs group Punch Taverns has been working hard to lose the adjectival preface "cash strapped", with a series of asset disposals, while at the same time attempting to stabilise its business performance.It declares interim results on Thursday and Panmure Gordon is tipping the group will announce profit before tax of £64.5m, slightly below market consensus of £65m.At the end of last month the company's chief executive, Giles Thorley, announced his intention to step down after nine years at the company. On the economic front, the release of the minutes of the April meeting of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee is likely to be a non-event. Even if the committee had been minded to change policy it would have been unlikely to do so with a general election in the offing.Of far more import is Friday's first estimate of the first quarter gross domestic product figures. As Bill Clinton had to keep reminding himself as he sought election as President for the first time, "it's the economy, stupid" that is likely to have the major impact on voter sentiment.Economists have been notably off the mark with their recent attempts to forecast economic growth, though their reputations have been saved somewhat by subsequent revisions to fourth quarter GDP. With that in mind, economists have been getting their excuses in early, observing that the extreme weather conditions in the early part of the year mean it is difficult to forecast the level of growth.Market consensus is for growth of 0.4% in the first quarter to a level 0.1% lower than the first quarter of 2009. If the market proves correct first quarter growth would match that of the fourth quarter of 2009, though the fourth quarter figure was only arrived at after two revisions; the initial figure was for growth of 0.1% and this time round it would not be a surprise either to see the initial estimate come in lower than the market is expecting.Monday April 19INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSLeading Indicators (US) (15:00)PMI Construction (EU) (09:00)Consumer Confidence (JPN)UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSRightmove House Prices (00:01)GMSIRF European Finance InvestmentsFINALSAlliance Trust, Brinkley Mining, DDD Group, Gaming VC Holdings, Individual Restaurant Company, NetDimensionsANNUAL REPORTCairn Energy, Chaucer Holdings, G4S, Mount Engineering, Vindon HealthcareIMSSPaceEGMSDatang Intl H, INA-Industrija Nafte GDR (Reg S)AGMSPaceFINAL EX-DIVIDEND DATESagicor Financial CorporationQ1TEO LT GDR (Reg S)Tuesday April 20INTERIMSAssociated British FoodsINTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATEBritish Sky Broadcasting Group, Interior ServicesINTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSBalance of Payments(EU) (09:00)Balance of Trade (EU) (10:00)Current Account (EU) (09:00)Economic Sentiment Indicator (EU) (10:00)Interest Rate Decision (CA) (13:00)Producer Price Index(GER) (07:00)RBA Interest Rate Minutes (AUS) (00:00)ZEW Survey (GER) (10:00)Tertiary Industry Index (JPN)Machine Tool Orders (JPN)Convenience Store Sales (JPN)FINALSFirst Artist Corporation, TescoANNUAL REPORTGlanbia, Portmeirion, Steppe CementIMSSReed ElsevierAGMSManagement Consulting Group, Modern Water, Slimma, Terrace HillTRADING ANNOUNCEMENTSBurberry Group, Record, SABMillerUK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSConsumer Price Index (09:30)Retail Price Index (09:30)Wednesday April 21INTERIM EX-DIVIDEND DATEAlbemarle & Bond, Carr's Milling Industries, Equity Partnership Income Shares, London & St lawrence Inv Co.QUARTERLY EX-DIVIDEND DATECarador EUR SharesINTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSCrude Oil Inventories (US) (15:30)MBA Mortgage Applications (US) (12:00)FINALSGame GroupIMSSHunting, Senior, St James's PlaceEGMSPetroceltic InternationalAGMSAnglo Pacific, Ark Therapeutics, Baronsmead AIM VCT, BlackRock World Mining Trust, Bunzl, Cyan, Drax Group, Herald Inv Trust, Hunting, JPMorgan US Discovery Inv Trust, London Capital Group, LSL Property Services, Meggitt, Oak Holdings, Premier Energy & Water Trust, Reed Elsevier, SVG Capital, TikitUK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSBBA Mortgage Lending Figures (09:30)BoE Interest Rate Minutes (09:30)Claimant Count Rate (09:30)Unemployment Rate (09:30)Average Weekly Earnings (09:30)FINAL EX-DIVIDEND DATEAggreko, Arena Leisure, BAE Systems, Balfour Beatty, Brady, Carillion, Costain Group, Dunedin Income Growth Inv Trust, Edinburgh UK Tracker Trust, Edinburgh US Tracker Trust, Fiberweb, Greggs, H.R. Owen, Interserve, JKX Oil & Gas, Johnson Service Group, Kazakhmys, Molins, Mondi, office2office, Petrofac Ltd., Rolls-Royce Group, Smith & Nephew, StatPro Group, Vitec Group, Xstrata, ZotefoamsQ1Qatar Telecom GDR (Reg S)Thursday April 22INTERIMSOffshore Hydrocarbon Mapping, Punch Taverns, Smiths News, WH SmithINTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATEClose Brothers GroupQUARTERLY EX-DIVIDEND DATECaterpillarINTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSAuto Sales (AUS) (00:00)Consumer Confidence Indicator (EU) (10:00)Production Outlook Indicator (FRA) 07:45)Business Confidence Indicator (FRA) (07:45)PMI Service Sector Survey (FRA) (08:00)PMI Manufacturing Sector Survey (FRA) (08:00)PMI Service Sector Survey (GER) (08:30)PMI Manufacturing Sector Survey (GER) (08:30)PMI Service Sector Survey (EU) (09:00)PMI Manufacturing Sector Survey (EU) (09:00)PMI Composite Index (EU) (09:00)Continuing Claims (US) (13:30)Existing Home Sales (US) (15:00)House Price Index (US) (15:00)Initial Jobless Claims (US) (13:30)Producer Price Index (US) (13:30)Unemployment Rate (US) (13:30)GMSCanaccord Financial Inc., Coal of Africa Limited, Volkswagen AGFINALSAseana Properties Trust, JSC Novorossiysk Comm. Sea Port GDR (Reg S)ANNUAL REPORTSurgical InnovationsIMSSAnglo American, BlueBay Asset Management, Filtrona PLC, PersimmonEGMSMaple EnergyAGMSAnglo American, Asustek Computer Inc. GDR (Reg S), Cazenove Absolute Equity Ltd., Direct Wonen, Elementis, Filtrona PLC, Lavendon Group, Persimmon, Rank Group, Stadium Group, Volkswagen AG, W H Ireland, ZestUK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSIndex of Services (09:30)M4 Money Supply (estimate) (09:30)M4 Sterling Lending (estimate) (09:30)Public Sector Finances (09:30)Retail Sales (09:30)Q1Autonomy CorporationFriday April 23INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATEDowning Absolute Income VCT 1, Renewable Energy Generation, Smiths GroupQUARTERLY PAYMENT DATEHenderson Financial Opportunities Limited, Quorum Oil and Gas Technology Fund Ltd.INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSDurable Goods Orders (US) (13:30)Existing Home Sales (US) (15:00)Industrial New Orders (EU) (10:00)New Homes Sales (US) (15:00)ZEW Survey (EU) (10:00)Consumer Spending (FRA) (07:45)IfO Business Climate (GER) (09:00)IfO Current Assessment (GER) (09:00)IfO Expectations (GER) (09:00)Industrial New Orders (EU) (10:00)GMSZincOxFINALSGas Turbine EfficiencySPECIAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATECharlemagne CapitalAGMSByblos Bank GDR (Reg S), JSC Halyk Savings Bank of Kazakhstan GDR (Reg S), Mediwatch, Morgan Crucible, Rotork, SDL International, Senior, SThree, Telekomunikacja Polska S.A. GDR (Reg S), Ultra Electronics HoldingsUK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSGDP (Preliminary) (09:30)FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATEOctopus Titan VCT 1, Octopus Titan VCT 2