Week Ahead: Tesco, Game, HMV

8th Jan 2010 09:30

Thursday looks like being a busy day for investment analysts covering the retail sector, with Halfords, Home Retail and Mothercare all bringing out Christmas trading updates.Before that, however, they will have to get to grips with the Christmas trading statement from supermarket giant Tesco. Rival supermarket operator Sainsbury has set the bar fairly high, after it reported the final quarter of 2009 saw like for like (lfl) sales, excluding fuel, rise by 3.7% year on year, or by 4.2% with VAT excluded. Like for like sales, including fuel, rose by 3.8% in the 13 weeks to 2 January.As has been the case for a while now, Tesco's like for like performance in the UK is expected to lag that of its main rivals. Citigroup predicts a 2% year on year improvement in lfl sales, excluding fuel and VAT, and says 'the trend has been clearly deteriorating since August, worse than the industry, despite the introduction of Double Clubcard points.'The broker added that 'Tesco have said they will state clearly the impact of double points on sales. The result, though, is that we estimate underlying UK LFL sales growth to be just 1.5% in December.'Where Tesco differs from Sainsbury is its increasing reliance on overseas markets, and here Citi thinks international growth, excluding currency fluctuations, may show a slight improvement from the third quarter, and is tipping lfl sales growth of 6.5%. Online sales could also be a bright spot. Computer gaming consoles were not the hot presents last Christmas that they had been in previous years, as gaming geeks await the release of the next generation of gaming machines. That is likely to have presented problems to video games retailers Game and HMV, both of which are also facing increasing competition from the supermarkets.Economic data from the UK is thin on the ground next week, with industrial production and trade figures the big items, though Monday's house price balance figures from the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors may attract interest, with the recovery in house prices expected to have levelled off last month.In Europe, the European Central Bank is expected to leave policies unchanged when it makes its interest rate announcement on Thursday.Monday January 11INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATECyril SweettEGMSMortice LtdFINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATEGroup NBTUK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSBRC Retail Sales Monitor (00:01)RICS House Price Balance (00:01)INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSIndustrial Production (FRA) (07:45)Manufacturing Output (FRA) (07:45)Current Account (JPN)Bank Lending (JPN)Tuesday January 12INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATEMorgan Crucible, TR Property Inv Trust, TR Property Inv Trust Sigma SharesFINALSIDOXINTERIM MANAGEMENT STATEMENT Namakwa DiamondsEGMSAccsys Technologies, Bank of Ireland, JSC Chelyabinsk Zinc Plant GDR (Reg S)AGMSDebenhams, The Conygar Investment Company, Topps TilesTRADING ANNOUNCEMENTSDunelm Group, Game Group, Signet, Tesco, Weir GroupFINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATECentaur Media, Forest Support Services, Northamber, RSM Tenon Group, Waterman GroupINTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSTrade Balance (US) (15:30)Bank of France Business Sentiment (FRA) (07:30)Current Account (FRA) (07:45)UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSVisible Trade Balance (09:30)DCLG House Prices (09:30)Wednesday January 13INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE3i Group, Anglo Pacific, De La Rue, Hyder Consulting, Ventus 1 VCT, Ventus 2 VCT, Ventus 3 VCT, VT GroupINTERIM EX-DIVIDEND DATEAshtead Group, Bisichi Mining, Foresight 3 VCT, IFG Group, Solid State, Spice, Umeco, Workspace GroupQUARTERLY EX-DIVIDEND DATEBritish Land CoFINALSProtonex TechnologyAGMSDiploma, Fenner, Northern Venture Trust, Northern Venture Trust 'C' SharesTRADING ANNOUNCEMENTSBrown (N.) Group, Greggs, SIGFINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATEHSBC HoldingsFINAL EX-DIVIDEND DATEAsset Man Inv Trust, Dunedin Smaller Companies Inv Trust, Edinburgh Worldwide Inv Trust, F&C Commercial Property Trust, Intec Telecom, Paragon Group Of Companies, Redhall Group, Scottish Inv TrustINTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSMonthly Budget Statement (US) (19:00)Fed Beige Book (US) (19:00)Consumer Prices Index (FRA) (07:45)Industrial Production (EC) (10:00)Machine Tool Orders (JPN)Machine Orders (JPN)CGIP (JPN)UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSIndustrial Production (09:30)NIESR GDP estimate Thursday January 14INTERIMSMisysINTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATEMckay Secs., Synergy HealthcareQUARTERLY PAYMENT DATEYamana Gold IncQ4Sandvine CorporationGMSNational Bank of Greece ADRFINALSInvista European Real Estate Trust, Sandvine Corporation, TravelzestAGMSCardiff Property, F&C Capital & Income Inv Trust, Frutarom GDR (Reg S), Glasgow Income Trust, Interactive Prospect Targeting HoldingsTRADING ANNOUNCEMENTSBarratt Developments, Booker Group, Halfords Group, Home Retail Group, Mothercare, Premier FoodsINTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSImport Price Index (US) (13:30)Advance Retail Sales (US) (13:30)Weekly Jobless Claims (US) (13:30)Business Inventories (US) (15:00)Consumer Prices Index (GER) (07:00)European Central Bank Rate Decision (EC) (12:45)Friday January 15INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATEAlliance Pharma, Babcock International Group, Cropper (James), Electrocomponents, Kewill, Northern 3 VCT, Severn Trent, Shanks Group, Telford Homes, UK Mail Group QUARTERLY PAYMENT DATELand Securities GroupANNUAL REPORTNorthern AIM VCTINTERIM MANAGEMENT STATEMENT Man Group, Smiths NewsEGMSX5 Retail Group GDR (Reg S)AGMSBellway, Offshore Hydrocarbon Mapping, Smiths News, Sorbic InternationalTRADING ANNOUNCEMENTSBovis Homes Group, HMVFINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATEOctopus Eclipse VCT 1, Octopus Eclipse VCT 3, Octopus Eclipse VCT 4, TanjongINTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSConsumer Prices Index (US) (13:30)Empire State Manufacturing Survey (US) (13:30)Industrial Production (US) (14:15)University of Michigan Consumer Confidence (US) (14:55)Trade Balance (EC) (10:00)Consumer Prices Index (EC) (10:00)