Week ahead: Spring Statement in focus

27th Feb 2026 11:18

(Sharecast News) - Chancellor Rachel Reeves will deliver the Spring Statement next Tuesday and the Office for Budget Responsibility will publish new forecasts for the economy and public finances.

Kathleen Brooks, research director at XTB, noted that in contrast to the months of speculation surrounding last November's Budget, there has been no fevered speculation about tax and spend changes.

"This is to be expected; Chancellor Rachel Reeves had made clear that she wants only one fiscal update a year and the spring statement is a formality rather than a political and economic event," she said. Brooks said the OBR's updated forecasts for growth and public finances are expected to be mixed.

"The unemployment rate is expected to be revised higher. In its previous forecast, the OBR expected the unemployment rate to hover around 5% through to 2027. However, the unemployment rate rose to 5.2% in the final quarter of last year, and the UK's youth unemployment rate surged above the EU's level for the first time, it now stands at 15.3%," she said.

Brooks also said that expectations are growing that the OBR will downgrade last year's growth forecast to 1.1% from 1.3%, after a sluggish second half of the year.

On the corporate front, results are due from Greggs, Admiral, Taylor Wimpey, Smith & Nephew, Fresnillo, Vistry, Reckitt Benckiser, Taylor Wimpey and ITV, among others.

Aarin Chiekrie, equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown, said that Greggs - famous for its sausage rolls - had a strong finish to 2025, with sales growth accelerating in the final quarter to 2.9% as it scooped up market share.

"That was driven by improved menus, later opening hours, and 121 net new shop openings over the year - although the latter was a touch lower than originally planned. Despite this, full-year pre-tax profit guidance remains intact, expected to land at around £173 million, down 9% on the prior year," he said.

"With this already baked into expectations, investors are keen to hear how 2026 is shaping up in the early months," Chiekrie said. "While the picture on the cost front is beginning to look more favourable, Greggs has plenty of other challenges still to wrestle with. Unhelpful changes to tax rules and minimum wages, slowing UK economic growth, and cost-conscious consumers are all weighing on the outlook. As a result, the group's expected to say that underlying profits will flatline in 2026 when it reports next week."

As far as Admiral is concerned, HL senior equity analyst Matt Britzman said the insurer goes into next week's results under a bit of pressure. "2025 profits are expected to grow 11%, but insurance is a slow business, and that largely reflects trends from 2024 and early 2025," he said.

"The outlook is more important, and the insurance market is expected to be soft in 2026, as stalled pricing at the back end of last year starts to work through, putting pressure on margins. Analysts will be watching closely for any indication that the pricing environment is improving, a trend which will likely flow through over the year, paving the way for improved conditions over the back half and into 2027.

"Admiral has also found itself under pressure as fears around AI-driven distribution disruption and autonomous vehicles (AVs) have grown. While both themes will reshape insurance over time, the pace is slow, the net impact is manageable, and incumbent insurers are likely beneficiaries, not victims. The fears are probably overstated."

In the US, department store chain Macy's, Costco and Kroger are among those slated to report.

Monday March 02

INTERIMS

Craneware, Gelion, Tristel

QUARTERLY PAYMENT DATE

JpMorgan China Growth & Income , JPMorgan Claverhouse Inv Trust, JPMorgan India Growth & Income

INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS

Construction Spending (US) (15:00)

ISM Manufacturing (US) (15:00)

ISM Prices Paid (US) (15:00)

PMI Manufacturing (GER) (08:55)

PMI Manufacturing (EU) (09:00)

PMI Manufacturing (US) (14:45)

Retail Sales (GER) (07:00)

Q4

Smith & Nephew

GMS

CEPS, Genflow Biosciences

FINALS

Bunzl, Oxford Nanopore Technologies , RHI Magnesita N.V. (DI), Senior, Senior, Smith & Nephew

EGMS

Faron Pharmaceuticals Oy (DI), Ming Yang Smart Energy Group Limited Gdr (Each Repr 5 A Shs Rmb1) (Reg S), SDIC Power Holdings Co.,Ltd GDR (Reg S)

AGMS

Amigo Holdings, Gresham House Income & Growth 2 VCT , Gresham House Income & Growth VCT

UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS

BRC Shop Price Index (00:01)

Consumer Credit (09:30)

M4 Money Supply (09:30)

Mortgage Approvals (09:30)

Nationwide House Price Index (07:00)

PMI Manufacturing (09:30)

Tuesday March 03

INTERIMS

Bluefield Solar Income Fund Limited, Kier Group, PCI-PAL

Q4

Gran Tierra Energy Inc. (CDI)

FINALS

Abrdn , Fresnillo, Gran Tierra Energy Inc. (CDI), Greggs, Inchcape, International Workplace Group, Intertek Group, Johnson Service Group, Keller Group, Morgan Advanced Materials , Reach, Synectics, XP Power Ltd. (DI)

AGMS

BSF Enterprise , Gana Media Group, NCC Group, Nuformix

Wednesday March 04

INTERIMS

Galliford Try

INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS

Crude Oil Inventories (US) (15:30)

Factory Orders (US) (15:00)

ISM Prices Paid (US) (15:00)

ISM Services (US) (15:00)

MBA Mortgage Applications (US) (12:00)

PMI Composite (EU) (09:00)

PMI Composite (GER) (08:55)

PMI Composite (US) (14:45)

PMI Services (EU) (09:00)

PMI Services (GER) (08:55)

PMI Services (US) (14:45)

Producer Price Index (EU) (09:00)

Unemployment Rate (EU) (10:00)

FINALS

Beazley, Cairn Homes (CDI), Metro Bank Holdings , Netcall, Quilter, SIG, Vistry Group , Weir Group

ANNUAL REPORT

Haydale

AGMS

Baillie Gifford US Growth Trust, GS Chain, GS Chain, Paragon Banking Group, Residential Secure Income

UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS

PMI Composite (09:30)

PMI Services (09:30)

FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE

Victorian Plumbing Group

Thursday March 05

INTERIM EX-DIVIDEND DATE

BHP Group Limited NPV (DI), City of London Investment Group, Dr. Martens , Foresight Ventures Vct, Genus, Mid Wynd International Inv Trust, MJ Gleeson , PZ Cussons, Renishaw, South32 Limited (DI) , Sylvania Platinum Ltd (DI), Trifast

QUARTERLY EX-DIVIDEND DATE

Energean , HICL Infrastructure

INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS

Balance of Trade (US) (13:30)

Continuing Claims (US) (13:30)

Import and Export Price Indices (US) (13:30)

Initial Jobless Claims (US) (13:30)

Producer Price Index (EU) (10:00)

Retail Sales (EU) (10:00)

Q4

Endeavour Mining, Lancashire Holdings Limited

GMS

Games Workshop Group

FINALS

Admiral Group, Aviva, CAB Payments Holdings, Coats Group, Elementis, Endeavour Mining, Entain, Foxtons Group , Funding Circle Holdings , Grafton Group Ut (CDI), Greencoat Renewables (CDI), Harbour Energy , Hon Hai Precision Industry Co. Ltd. GDR (Reg S), Hunting, Ibstock , ITV, Lancashire Holdings Limited, OSB Group , Pagegroup, Reckitt Benckiser Group, Rentokil Initial, RM, Serco Group, Spire Healthcare Group, Taylor Wimpey

SPECIAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE

Unicorn AIM VCT

SPECIAL EX-DIVIDEND DATE

B.P. Marsh & Partners, Foresight Ventures Vct

AGMS

Aberforth Smaller Companies Trust, Ct Uk Capital and Income Investment Trust , Ecofin Global Utilities and Infrastructure Trust , Impax Asset Management Group, Impax Environmental Markets

UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS

PMI Construction (09:30)

FINAL EX-DIVIDEND DATE

Rights & Issues Investment Trust , Rio Tinto, S and U 6% Cumulative Prf. £1

Friday March 06

INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE

Mountview Estates

QUARTERLY PAYMENT DATE

BlackRock American Income Trust, Chenavari Toro Income Fund Limited NPV

QUARTERLY EX-DIVIDEND DATE

CRH (CDI)

INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS

Consumer Credit (US) (20:00)

Factory Orders (GER) (07:00)

Gross Domestic Product (EU) (10:00)

Industrial Production (GER) (07:00)

Non-Farm Payrolls (US) (13:30)

Unemployment Rate (US) (13:30)

FINALS

IMI

AGMS

Chenavari Toro Income Fund Limited NPV

UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS

Halifax House Price Index (07:00)

FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE

Avon Technologies , Gooch & Housego, Paragon Banking Group