Week Ahead: Elections, BoE minutes, Whitbread

15th Jun 2012 08:02

Unusually, focus next week will be more on polling stations than stock markets, with Greece, France and Egypt all holding elections over the week-end.The key one for the future of the Eurozone is Greece, although a Socialist victory in France could also have interesting repercussions for the future of the shared currency. Guessing which party will hold the whip-hand in the Greek general elections and assessing the likelihood of a coalition government being successfully formed is a difficult task made near impossible by a Greek law which prohibits opinion polls being published close to election day.The consensus seems to be that the election is too close to call and that a round of horse-trading will be required before a government can be formed. Coalition negotiations broke down after the last election, hence this Sunday's re-run, but this time round there seems to be an acknowledgement that compromises must be made to ensure Greece has a hand at the tiller as soon as possible.Meanwhile, the G20 countries meet in Mexico over the week-end and European finance ministers are scheduled to meet on Monday and Tuesday ahead of the full quarterly summit meeting of European Union heads of state and government on June 28th and 29th."Will these meetings prove the point at which a growth compact to complement the fiscal compact take wing?" asks Jeremy Batstone-Carr, Director of Private Client Research and Investment Strategy at Charles Stanley. "Investors are sceptical but something must be done or it will soon be too late," Batstone-Carr suggests.UK inflation data for May is out on Tuesday, and there is likely to be encouraging news on the Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) annual inflation rate, which is tipped to narrow to 2.2% from 2.9% in April.The regular CPI is seen rising 0.2% in May after April's 0.6% increase, leaving the annual advance unchanged at 3.0%. The Retail Price Index (RPI) is also forecast to rise by 0.2% in May, having jumped 0.7% in April. RPI inflation is expected to decline slightly to 3.3% from 3.5%.On Wednesday, the US Federal Open Market Committee announces its interest rate decision and, unless the US central bank is going to start paying US banks to borrow money from it, the Fed has little option but to leave its rates unchanged.On the same day the Bank of England releases the minutes from the June meeting of its policy-making team, the Monetary Policy Committee. If April's verdict on whether to unleash more quantitative easing was finely balanced then May's is likely to have seen even more lively debate about whether to loosen fiscal policy some more.April brought yet more bad news in the form of construction output, which showed a 13.3% month-on-month drop and an 8.5% year-on-year drop. The quarter-on-quarter fall in construction output in the first quarter was also revised down to -4.9% from -4.8%. Industrial and manufacturing production figures were grim, and Friday's trade figures suggest that hopes of an export-led recovery for the UK economy are pie - or pasty - in the sky.On the corporate front there are no blockbusting company results expected but updates from a number of companies going through "interesting times", as the old Chinese proverb has it, are expected.Included among them are: defence group Chemring, which has seen its share price halve in the last year; Argos owner Home Retail, which recently scrapped its divi; Kesa Electricals, now free of its Comet chain, which it sold for two quid (plus, presumably, an extended warrant); and business software firm Micro Focus, which said last month that its earnings for the year just ended will be at the top end of expectations. On Tuesday Whitbread holds its annual general meeting, and is likely to give shareholders an update on trading in its first quarter.With UK revenue per available room (revPAR) growth in the UK still subdued, Credit Suisse is not expecting the update to lead to earnings forecast upgrades for Whitbread. RevPAR in Whitbread's fourth quarter was down year-on-year by 1% but the Swiss bank thinks that in the March to May quarter it will turn positive by a similar amount. For the group's Costa Coffee chain, Credit Suisse has pencilled in like-for-like (LFL) sales growth of 4.0%, down from +5.2% in the preceding quarter. The pubs & restaurants division is seen achieving LFL growth of 1.5%, little changed from the fourth quarter, "but the issue remains the recovery of cost inflation given growth has been volume not price driven," Credit Suisse says. The Swiss outfit's current estimates assume margins will fall by one percentage point in fiscal 2013. "It seems unlikely consensus numbers will change after the Q1 [first quarter] update and we see greater upgrade potential elsewhere in the sector," Credit Suisse said, citing sector peers Accor and InterContinental Hotels Group as better picks. Monday June 18INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATEBarloworld Ltd., Narborough PlantationsQUARTERLY EX-DIVIDEND DATETotal SAGMSPLUS Markets GroupFINALSMajestic Wine, Sirius Real Estate Ltd.ANNUAL REPORTICAP, SepuraAGMSAseana Properties Ltd., BH Global Ltd. GBP Shares, BH Global Ltd. USD Shares, BH Macro Ltd. EUR Shares, BH Macro Ltd. GBP Shares, BH Macro Ltd. USD Shares, Equatorial Palm Oil, Evraz, Serabi Gold, Silvermere EnergyFINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATEKingfisher, Polymetal International, Toyota Motor Corp.Q1OJSC Phosagro GDR (Regs)Tuesday June 19INTERIMSChemring GroupINTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATELowland Investment Co, Matchtech GroupINTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSBuilding Permits (US) (13:30)Housing Starts (US) (13:30)ZEW Survey (EU) (10:00)ZEW Survey (GER) (10:00)GMSAll Nippon Airways Co Ltd.FINALSImagination Technologies Group, TrifastANNUAL REPORTPolar Capital HoldingsIMSSHome Retail GroupAGMSCoastal Energy Co (DI), Fortune Oil, NB Global Floating Rate Income Fund Ltd GBP, NB Global Floating Rate Income Fund Ltd USD, Ophir Energy, Regal Petroleum, Richoux Group, Surgical Innovations Group, Tiger Resource Finance, WhitbreadUK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSConsumer Price Index (09:30)Retail Price Index (09:30)FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATEHiscox Ltd.Wednesday June 20INTERIMSZambeef ProductsINTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATEDiplomaINTERIM EX-DIVIDEND DATEAI Claims Solutions, Alternative Networks, Edinburgh Worldwide Inv Trust, Gooch & Housego, RWS HoldingsQUARTERLY EX-DIVIDEND DATELand Securities Group, Personal Assets TrustINTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSCrude Oil Inventories (US) (15:30)FOMC Interest Rate (US) (17:15)MBA Mortgage Applications (US) (12:00)Producer Price Index (GER) (07:00)FINALSKesa ElectricalsANNUAL REPORTAcal, International Consolidated Airlines Group SA (CDI)SPECIAL EX-DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATENetDimensions Holding Ltd. (DI), Severn TrentAGMSAfrican Eagle Resources, Allied Gold Mining, Blackstar Group SE (DI), Braemar Shipping Services, Iofina, JD Sports Fashion, Landore Resources Ltd., Loudwater Trust Ltd, Nautilus Minerals Inc. (DI), Plaza Centers NV, Press Corp. GDR (Reg S), Renaissance Russia Infrastructure Equities Ltd, UK Commercial Property Trust, Westhouse Holdings UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSBoE Interest Rate Minutes (09:30)Claimant Count Rate (09:30)Unemployment Rate (09:30)FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATEArgo Group Ltd., Belgravium Technologies, Fairpoint Group, Graphite Enterprise Trust, Morrison (Wm) Supermarkets, Motivcom, NTT DoCoMo Inc, Premier FarnellFINAL EX-DIVIDEND DATE3i Group, 3i Infrastructure, Albany Inv Trust, Amati Vct 2, Aveva Group, Braemar Shipping Services, CML Microsystems, Dairy Crest Group, Electrocomponents, Fuller Smith & Turner, Hansa Trust, Harvey Nash Group, Hasgrove, Invensys, Investment Company, Maven Income & Growth VCT, May Gurney Integrated Services, Metric Property Investments , Mitie Group, NetDimensions Holding Ltd. (DI), NewRiver Retail Ltd. (Reg S), Norcon, Northern 3 VCT, Northern Investors Co, Octopus VCT , Record, Severn Trent, Telford Homes, Tex Holdings, United Utilities Group, Utilico Emerging Markets Ltd (DI), Value and Income Trust, Walker Crips GroupThursday June 21QUARTERLY PAYMENT DATERoyal Dutch Shell 'A', Royal Dutch Shell 'B', Total SAINTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSBloomberg Consumer Confidence (US) (14:45)Consumer Confidence Indicator (EU) (10:00)Continuing Claims (US) (13:30)Current Account (EU) (09:00)Existing Home Sales (US) (15:00)House Price Index (US) (15:00)Initial Jobless Claims (US) (13:30)Leading Indicators (US) (15:00)Philadelphia Fed Index (US) (15:00)Q4Ashtead GroupFINALSAshtead Group, Dixons Retail , Micro Focus InternationalANNUAL REPORTAPI GroupAGMSArgo Real Estate Opportunities Fund, GoIndustry-DoveBid, Hampden Underwriting, Henderson Private Equity Inv Trust, Heritage Oil, Inch Kenneth Kajang Rubber, International Public Partnerships Ltd., Phaunos Timber Fund Ltd., Premier Gold Resources, Tawa, Telit Communications, TLA Worldwide , Toye & Co, Vimetco NV GDR (Reg S), VolvereTRADING ANNOUNCEMENTSGo-Ahead GroupUK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSCBI Industrial Trends Surveys (11:00)Internet Retail Sales (09:30)Retail Sales (09:30)FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATECapital & Counties Properties , Eurasian Natural Resources Corp., M. P. Evans Group, Martin Currie Global Portfolio Trust, Networkers International, Provident Financial, Severfield-RowenFriday June 22INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATEBlackrock Frontiers Investment Trust, London Security, Standard Life Equity Income TrustINTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSIFO Business Climate (GER) (09:00)IFO Current Assessment (GER) (09:00)IFO Expectations (GER) (09:00)ANNUAL REPORTIomart GroupEGMSBank Audi SAL (Audi Saradar Group) GDR (Reg S)AGMSAlbion Technology & General VCT, Manx Financial Group, Narborough Plantations, Salamander Energy, Silence Therapeutics, Trans-Siberian GoldFINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATECayenne Trust, Elderstreet VCT, Howden Joinery Group, Intertek Group, Irish Continental Group Units, Lamprell, Maven Income & Growth 2 VCT, Mecom Group, Menzies(John), S & U, Witan Pacific Inv Trust, Xaar