Week Ahead: Central banks, Morrisons, Genus

31st Aug 2012 09:48

Central bank decisions will be in focus next week, particularly in the wake of the central bankers' economic symposium in Jackson Hole.Indeed, so busy is European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi preparing for next week's meeting that he has been unable to attend the jolly-up in the Wyoming skiing resort."We regard it as very unlikely that the ECB will announce a yield cap or a very detailed strategy for bond buying. After the recent improvement in market sentiment, we thus see the risk of some investors being disappointed, potentially triggering a bit of risk-off," said Luca Cazzulani of UniCredit.The Bank of England's meeting offers the remote possibility of some drama. While the bank is odds-on to retain its key lending rate, minutes from the previous meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee indicated that there was some support for topping up the asset purchase (quantitative easing) pot, although the consensus was that the Bank should allow a bit more time to see how the recently introduced Funding for Lending Scheme pans out.Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Bank of Canada are also expected to stand pat with their policies.On the corporate front, supermarket chain Morrisons reports interim figures on Thursday, which broker Jefferies thinks "are likely to bear the scars of weather challenges".Nevertheless, "self-help and ROCE [return on capital employed] discipline remain powerful attractions (the latter likely to lead to even greater capex [capital expenditure] scrutiny)," the broker suggests. "We anticipate self-help to have allowed for broadly unchanged underlying EBIT [earnings before interest and tax] margin (or a slight decline including the dilution from petrol sales). Crucially, we still forecast 8% H1 EPS [first half earnings per share] growth as buyback activity starts to reward shareholders," Jefferies added. "We expect Morrisons to outline good progress in its M-local trials and the preparation of a wider non-food online roll-out. Performance in the new fresh format is also likely to be reassuring in more affluent catchments. Despite this, we expect Morrisons' focus on maintaining industry-leading ROCE to likely result in reducing capital intensity (at this stage we estimate a £1.05bn peak in 2012/13), as the group balances a challenged trading backdrop with new growth opportunities, extending vertical integration and a stepped-up Southern expansion," Jefferies said.Tuesday has a bit of an agricultural feel to it, with animal genetics company Genus and veterinary healthcare company Dechra Pharmaceuticals set to update the market.Peel Hunt says emerging markets growth should be offsetting higher feed prices at Genus. It is forecasting a 15% improvement in profits, with strong growth across a number of emerging markets.The key issue currently is the rise in feed prices, Peel Hunt believes. "This will have a direct impact on Genus's feed costs of around £1m, but it will also affect its customers. Some customers may well struggle in the short term, but generally higher feed prices are good news for Genus as it accelerates the trend to industrialisation of the industry and reinforces the benefits of genetics in improving feed conversion," the broker predicts."We expect to hear more about plans in China, particularly with the announcement of the major JV [joint venture] with Besun, which will deliver genetics to 10m slaughter pigs when in full operation," the broker added.As for Dechra, the market is expecting profit before tax of £31.1m on revenue of £420.2m. Earnings per share are tipped to rise 19% to 37.03p, paving the way for the full-year dividend to be upped to around 12.16p from 10.97p last year. Monday September 03INTERIMSBiome Technologies, Cupid, Pennant International Group, Staffline GroupINTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATESt. Modwen PropertiesQUARTERLY PAYMENT DATEJPMorgan Claverhouse Inv TrustINTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSPMI Manufacturing (EU) (09:00)PMI Manufacturing (GER) (08:55)Q4KofaxFINALSKofax, Sweett GroupAGMSGalileo ResourcesUK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSPMI Manufacturing  (09:30)FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATEBT GroupTuesday September 04INTERIMSAbbey Protection, Hydro International, Johnson Service Group, Lupus Capital, Quindell Portfolio, Stadium Group, Ubisense Group PlcINTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATEInchcape, Man Group, RexamINTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSConstruction Spending (US) (15:00)ISM Prices Paid (US) (15:00)Producer Price Index (EU) (10:00)FINALSAlumasc Group, Craneware, Dechra Pharmaceuticals, Genus, Mcbride, MonitiseAGMSAshtead Group, Essar Energy , Greene King, Midas Income & Growth Trust, Polar Capital Technology Trust, Smith (DS), Tricorn GroupUK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSBRC Sales Monitor (00:01)PMI Construction (09:30)Wednesday September 05INTERIMSAdvanced Medical Solutions Group, Concurrent TechnologiesINTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATEFennerINTERIM EX-DIVIDEND DATEAggreko, Amlin, Arbuthnot Banking Group, ARM Holdings, AZ Electronic Materials SA (DI), Baronsmead VCT 3, Baronsmead VCT 4, Baronsmead VCT 5, Bilfinger Berger Global Infrastructure Sicav S.A.(DI), Camellia, Cape, Carillion, Churchill China, Cineworld Group, Communisis, Delcam, Elementis, Evraz, FBD Holdings, Glanbia, Grafton Group Units, Greggs, Holders Technology, IMI, International Personal Finance, Jardine Lloyd Thompson Group, John Laing Infrastructure Fund Ltd, JPMorgan American Inv Trust, Jupiter European Opportunities Trust, Kazakhmys, London Capital Group Holdings, Maven Income & Growth 4 VCT, Maven Income & Growth 4 VCT 'S' Shares, Michael Page International, National Express Group, New World Resources A Shares, North Midland Construction, Novae Group, Ocean Wilsons Holdings Ltd., Paddy Power, Phoenix Group Holdings (DI), Portmeirion Group, Regus, Resolution Ltd., Robert Walters, SEGRO, Serco Group, Shaft Sinkers Holdings, Shire Plc, TP70 VCT, TUI Travel, Tullow Oil, UK Select Trust Ltd.QUARTERLY EX-DIVIDEND DATEBritish Assets Trust, Duet Real Estate Finance Ltd, XP Power Ltd. (DI)INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSAuto Sales (US) (15:00)MBA Mortgage Applications (US) (12:00)PMI Composite (EU) (09:00)PMI Composite (GER) (08:55)PMI Services (EU) (09:00)PMI Services (GER) (08:55)Productivity (US) (13:30)Retail Sales (EU) (10:00)GMSBlack Mountain Resources LtdFINALSA&J Mucklow Group, Hargreaves LansdownIMSSBerkeley Group Holdings (The), Sports Direct InternationalSPECIAL EX-DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATEDunedin Enterprise Investment TrustAGMSBerkeley Group Holdings (The), Conexion Media Group, Daejan Holdings, Endace Ltd, Gail (India) Ltd GDR (Reg S), Sports Direct InternationalUK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSBRC Shop Price Index (00:01)Official Reserves (09:30)PMI Services (09:30)FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATEIomart Group, Vedanta ResourcesFINAL EX-DIVIDEND DATEACM Shipping Group, Betfair Group, BHP Billiton, Diageo, Downing Structured Opportunities VCT 1, Downing Structured Opportunities VCT 1 'B' Shares, Downing Structured Opportunities VCT 1 'D' Shares, Immunodiagnostic Systems Holdings, Mattioli Woods, Mid Wynd International Inv Trust, Swan (John) & SonsThursday September 06INTERIMSHydroDec Group, Morrison (Wm) Supermarkets, Randall & Quilter Investment Holdings, SQS Software Quality Systems AG, Valiant PetroleumINTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATEDomino's Pizza GroupINTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSBloomberg Consumer Confidence (US) (14:45)Continuing Claims (US) (13:30)Crude Oil Inventories (US) (15:30)ECB Interest Rate (EU) (12:45)GDP (1st release) (EU) (10:00)Initial Jobless Claims (US) (13:30)ISM Non-Manufacturing (US) (15:00)ISM Services (US) (15:00)PMI Construction (GER) (08:55)GMSToumaz LimitedFINALSCPL Resources, Go-Ahead GroupAGMS1Spatial, ACM Shipping Group, Carclo, Carpetright, Dart Group, Datatec Ltd. (DI), Dixons Retail , Energy Assets Group, Trakm8 HoldingsUK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSBoE Interest Rate Decision (12:00)New Car Registrations (09:30)FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATESynergy Health, VictoriaFriday September 07INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATEAvon Rubber, BG Group, Blackrock Income And Growth Investment Trust, CSR, Dialight, Foreign and Colonial Inv Trust, Jupiter Fund Management , Porvair, Puma VCT VQUARTERLY PAYMENT DATEBarclays, Boeing CoINTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSBalance of Trade (GER) (07:00)Current Account (GER) (07:00)Industrial Production (GER) (11:00)Non-Farm Payrolls (US) (13:30)Retail Price Index (GER) (07:00)Unemployment Rate (US) (13:30)ANNUAL REPORTMDM Engineering Group Ltd. (DI)IMSSSThreeAGMSBlueStar SecuTech Inc. (DI), Latchways, Oilex Ltd., Small Companies Dividend TrustUK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSIndustrial Production (09:30)Manufacturing Production (09:00)Producer Price Index  (09:30)FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATEAshtead Group, Cranswick, iEnergizer Ltd., Prosperity Minerals Holdings Ltd., QinetiQ Group, RPC Group