Week Ahead: Banks, insurers, properties, base rates

29th Jul 2011 13:21

The end-quarter results season is fully in its stride, with trading updates expected from the high street banks, as well as reports from insurers and miners. On top of that, there are some heavy-duty economic announcements, in the form of interest rate decisions from the Bank of England and the European Central Bank, while in the USA, all eyes will be on the first major economic indicator pertaining to July, the change in non-farm payrolls. Meanwhile, the saga of negotiations over the raising of the US debt ceiling is likely to end on 2 August, the day that the USA is set to start running out of money as it will no longer be able to ask its international buddies to spare it a dime.Emerging markets focused bank HSBC kicks off the UK banking season on Monday, with its half-year results.The group's first quarter profit was down 14% on a year earlier, but the word was that April had been a satisfactory month "in line with expectations". Management seem to be fretting about staff costs, and there are strong rumours that the company is planning to shed more than 10,000 jobs worldwide. Chief Executive Stuart Gulliver has admitted he is looking to cut around $2bn from the cost base annually, largely from the European and North American retail operations.Broker Charles Stanley is predicting half-year profit before tax of $11.1bn, earnings per share of 38 cents and an interim dividend of 16 cents.Also out on Monday is Hammerson, the first of many big property groups set to update the market in the first week of August."Given the limited yield shift experienced over the period, we are expecting the companies to all focus on the occupational markets, whether it be the tough but diverse market for retailers (Hammerson, CSC and Town Centre), the upbeat, rising office and retail rental markets in Central London (Derwent London, Capital & Counties and Songbird), or the slow UK industrial market (SEGRO and Hansteen)," writes Matrix Group, in a preview of the property sector's results season. " In addition, we expect the companies to focus on their ability to actively manage assets and, thus, outperform the wider property market indices," the broker added.Trading systems developer Fidessa was a good investment in the first half of the year but profit-takers moved in during July, ahead of the group's interim figures on 1 August. Panmure Gordon is expecting the company to reiterate earlier comments about 2011 revenue growth likely to be at similar levels to those seen in 2010."Fidessa is also likely to flag up the challenges of uncertain regulation, the macro-economic environment, structural pressure and hiring challenges. 'Regulation' plays well for Fidessa, in addition, the company's market leading products, dominant market position, competitive clout, resilient financial model and enviable customer base should enable it to continue to sign significant new orders. To be sure, there is a hiring impasse but, historically, this has been very elastic," the broker notes.The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected in some quarters to announce another interest rate rise next week. ECB Governing Council member Christian Noyer was recently reported as saying that council members remain in "strong vigilance" mode, a phrase regarded as code for "a rate rise is coming". That prompted a clarification from the Bank of France, which said that Noyer's words should have been translated as "strong alertness," a phrase which has no historical connotations as code for an imminent rise. Consequently, the code breakers seem to have no more idea whether a rate rise is imminent than the rest of us, but the very fact that the Bank of France acted to clarify things suggests that the status quo may be maintained.Predictions of what the Bank of England will do at its rate setting meeting are a lot more confident: "carry on and keep calm" is likely to be the order of the day, with the Bank's key lending rate staying at its historical low and the asset purchase programme staying wrapped in mothballs, though some economists have been urging the Bank's Monetary Policy Committee to launch QE2 (the second phase of quantitative easing) as a means of jump-starting the UK economy.As for non-farm payrolls in the US, due out on Friday, 5 August, there is a chance of no-one caring very much if the US Congress fails to raise the debt ceiling by the deadline of 2 August. Assuming, however, that 2 August does not, to borrow the phrase of US satirical news programme "The Daily Show", signal "the end of the world as we owe it", then economists will be looking for an increase of around 91,000 new jobs to US non-farm payrolls in July. In June, payrolls rose by 18,000.Monday August 01INTERIMSArena Leisure, Fidessa Group, Hammerson, HSBC Holdings, Hutchison China Meditech Ltd., Intertek Group, Keller Group, Management Consulting Group, Netplay TV, Senior, Ultra Electronics Holdings, Xchanging, XP Power Ltd. (DI)INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATEBBA Aviation, Compass Group, Electronic Data ProcessingQUARTERLY PAYMENT DATEMercantile Inv Trust, Torchmark Corp., Verizon CommunicationsINTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSPMI Manufacturing (FRA) (08:50)PMI Manufacturing (GER) (08:55)PMI Manufacturing (EU) (09:00)Unemployment Rate (EU) (10:00)Construction Spending (US) (15:00)ISM Manufacturing (US) (15:00)ISM Prices Paid (US) (15:00)GMSPendragon, RestoreIMSSDiploma, Pennon GroupAGMSCranswick, Establishment Inv Trust, Schroder UK Growth Fund, Tanzanite One Ltd., Woodburne Square AgUK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSHalifax House Prices PMI Manufacturing (09:30)FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATEHogg Robinson Group, IBIS Media VCT, JD Sports Fashion, Trinity Capital, United Utilities GroupTuesday August 02INTERIMSBarclays, Capital Shopping Centres Group, Centamin Egypt Ltd., Collins Stewart Hawkpoint, Devro, Drax Group, Fresnillo, Meggitt, Millennium & Copthorne Hotels, Moneysupermarket.com Group, Prudential, SDL, Tullett Prebon, Weir Group, Xstrata, ZotefoamsINTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATESinclair (William) HoldingsINTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSPersonal Consumption Expenditures (US) (13:30)Personal Income (US) (13:30)Personal Spending (US) (13:30)Monetary Base (JPN)Producer Price Index (EU) (10:00)Auto Sales (US) (15:00)Q2Centamin Egypt Ltd.IMSSFresnillo, FutureEGMSNewRiver Retail Ltd. (Reg S)AGMSHansa Trust, JPMorgan Brazil Inv Trust , MobileWave Group , Monks Inv Trust, QinetiQ Group, Umeco, VictoriaUK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSPMI Construction (09:30)FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATEFramlington AIM VCT 2, Johnson Matthey, Norcros, TR Property Inv Trust, TR Property Inv Trust Sigma SharesWednesday August 03INTERIMSBank Pekao SA GDS (Reg S), Capital & Counties Properties , Ferrexpo, GKN, GlobeOp Financial Services SA (DI), Komercni Banka GDR (Level 1), Legal & General Group, Rightmove, Standard Life, Taylor Wimpey, Vernalis, Yamana Gold Inc.INTERIM EX-DIVIDEND DATEBG Group, Brunner Inv Trust, Charter International, Core VCT IV, Core VCT V, Domino's Pizza UK & IRL, Edinburgh UK Tracker Trust, IDOX, Inchcape, Independent Inv Trust, Law Debenture Corp., Maven Income & Growth 3 VCT, Oxford Technology 4 VCT, Porvair, Rank Group, Reckitt Benckiser Group, Reed Elsevier, RIT Capital Partners, St James's Place, Throgmorton TrustQUARTERLY EX-DIVIDEND DATEBP, Duet Real Estate Finance Ltd, Royal Dutch Shell 'A', Royal Dutch Shell 'B'INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSPMI Composite (GER) (00:00)PMI Services (FRA) (08:15)PMI Services (GER) (08:55)PMI Composite (EU) (09:00)PMI Services (EU) (09:00)Retail Sales (EU) (10:00)MBA Mortgage Applications (US) (12:00)ADP Employment Change (US) (13:15)Crude Oil Inventories (US) (15:30)Factory Orders (US) (15:00)Goods Orders (US) (15:00)ISM Non-Manufacturing (US) (15:00)ISM Services (US) (15:00)Q2Komercni Banka GDR (Level 1), Yamana Gold Inc.SPECIAL EX-DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATEAberforth Geared Income TrustAGMSCML Microsystems, Cropper (James), Geopark Holdings Ltd., Praesepe, Tata Steel Ltd. GDR (Reg S)TRADING ANNOUNCEMENTSNextUK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSBRC Shop Price Index (00:01)Official Reserves (09:30)PMI Services (09:30)FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATECharles Stanley Group, E2V Technologies, Fuller Smith & Turner, Homeserve, Phoenix IT Group, Record, Vedanta ResourcesFINAL EX-DIVIDEND DATEAberdeen New Dawn Inv Trust, Cohort, Creston, ILX Group, Latham (James), QinetiQ Group, Robert Wiseman Dairies, RPC Group, SABMillerQ1Canaccord Financial Inc.Thursday August 04INTERIMSAviva, Catlin Group Ltd., Cobham, Coca-Cola HBC S.A., Hellenic Telecom Industries SA ADS, Inmarsat, Ladbrokes, Lloyds Banking Group, Motive Television, Novae Group, Randgold Resources Ltd., Rio Tinto, Robert Walters, RSA Insurance Group, Schroders, Schroders (Non-Voting), Spirent Communications, StatPro Group, UnileverINTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSPMI Construction (GER) (08:55)Factory Orders (GER) (11:00)ECB Interest Rate (EU) (12:45)Continuing Claims (US) (13:30)Initial Jobless Claims (US) (13:30)Bloomberg Consumer Confidence (US) (14:45)Q2Aviva, Hellenic Telecom Industries SA ADS, Inmarsat, Randgold Resources Ltd., UnileverANNUAL REPORTDart GroupAGMSBlue Planet Financials Growth & Income Inv Trust Unit, Blue Planet Financials Growth & Income Inv Trust Units, International Greetings, Invesco Income Growth Trust, Investec, Majestic Wine, Polar Cap Technology TrustUK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSBoE Interest Rate Decision (12:00)New Car Registrations (09:30)FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATEBurberry Group, Dairy Crest Group, De La Rue, Dee Valley Group, Mckay SecuritiesFriday August 05INTERIMSBBA Aviation, Brammer, Logica, Old Mutual, Playtech Ltd., Polski Koncern Naftowy Orlen SA GDR (Reg S), Premier Foods, Royal Bank of Scotland Group, Smith & Nephew, Stanley Gibbons Group, William HillINTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATECareTech Holding, Chemring Group, Heavitree BreweryQUARTERLY PAYMENT DATEInvestors Capital Trust 'A' SharesINTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSBank of Japan Target RateTrade Balance (FRA) (07:45)Industrial Production (GER) (11:00)Non-Farm Payrolls (US) (13:30)Unemployment Rate (US) (13:30)Consumer Credit (US) (20:00)Q2Smith & NephewGMSRubicon Software GroupEGMSMatrix European Real Estate Inv Trust Ltd.AGMSAlpha Tiger Property Trust Ltd., Carpathian, Indian Hotels Ltd. GDR (Reg S), Invesco Asia Trust, Jubilant EnergyTRADING ANNOUNCEMENTSBellwayUK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSProducer Price Index (09:30)FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATEBond International Software, Carphone Warehouse Group, CML Microsystems, Establishment Inv Trust, Fidelity China Special Situations , Halfords Group, Hyder Consulting, Invensys, Monks Inv Trust, Mothercare, Octopus AIM VCT, Shanks Group, TalkTalk Telecom Group , Tate & Lyle, Telecom Plus, Vodafone Group, Workspace Group