Wednesday preview: Standard Life, Thomas Cook, UK unemployment

10th Aug 2010 16:28

Standard Life resumes the results season for insurers after a two-day lull at the start of the week. Panmure Gordon is forecasting interim operating profit on a European Embedded Value (EEV) basis of £293m, down 16% year on year, "reflecting a tough comparative that included a positive experience variance and lower development expenditure."On an international financial reporting standards (IFRS) basis the broker is predicting operating profit of £176m, down 5% from last year. Total sales are expected to be in the region of £9,419m."We understand that the range of estimates for IFRS operating profit is £164m-192m, with consensus at £180m," the broker advises.After TUI Travel's shares fell out of bed following a profit warning on Tuesday morning shareholders will be awaiting the third quarter interim management statement from sector peer Thomas Cook with a certain amount of trepidation.As with TUI, Thomas Cook suffered as a result of the ash cloud from the eruption of Icelandic volcano and in June its attempts to lure people to far-flung hot spots will have been battling the rival appeal of the FIFA World Cup.Despite that, JP Morgan Cazenove was expressing cautious optimism last week about the medium term outlook for the package tour operators. However, that was before Tuesday's profits guidance downgrade from TUI and news that TUI's UK bookings fell by 2% over the past 12 weeks with the Netherlands also down by 3%.Shares in software group Micro Focus have been in the dog house since the resignation of chief financial officer Nick Bray, Panmure Gordon says, with investors concerned about the company's ability to deliver growth.The broker expects the company to say that the year started out in line with management expectations following the first quarter and that the company is confident in the outlook for the year. "CEO Nigel Clifford is likely to reiterate guidance stating that in the short term Micro Focus expects to deliver mid single digit organic revenue growth with the ambition of returning to double digit growth over the medium term, while maintaining adjusted EBITDA margins at c40%," the broker added.The UK unemployment picture is expected to have improved in July, with the claimant count forecast to have fallen by 17,000 from the previous month, when it fell 20,800.The claimant count unemployment rate is seen dropping to 4.5% in July from 4.6% in June.On the International Labour Organisation (ILO) measure, the number of jobless is tipped to have declined by 65,000 in the three months to June to 2.45m.The number of people in employment may have risen, though largely as a result of an increase in part-time workers. The Bank of England's quarterly inflation report for August will unveil the bank's new gross domestic product (GDP) growth and consumer price inflation assumptions.Dr. Howard Archer of the forecasting agency IHS Global Insight thinks the bank may have had the "unpleasant task of appreciably lowering its GDP growth forecast for 2011 but raising its consumer price inflation projections for 2010 and 2011.""The Bank of England may feel able to leave this year's GDP forecast unchanged due to better than expected growth in the second quarter but this will likely be offset by softer growth than previously expected in the second half of the year. In fact, we suspect growth will be no more than 1.5% in 2010," Dr. Archer opined. As for the consumer price inflation forecasts, "the Bank of England will have little option but to raise the consumer price inflation forecasts for 2010 and 2011 not only due to the VAT hike from 17.5% to 20% next January but also due to inflation being much stickier than expected so far in 2010 than had been envisaged in the May Inflation Report," Dr. Archer predicted.INTERIMS Balfour Beatty, Capital & Regional, Flying Brands, Grupo Clarin S.A. GDR (Reg S), Smurfit Kappa Group, Standard Life INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE Holidaybreak, Safestore INTERIM EX-DIVIDEND DATE 4imprint Group, Charter International, F&C Inv Trust, Ferrexpo, GKN, Invista Real Estate Investment Management Holdings, Ladbrokes, Law Debenture Corp., LSL Property Services, Meggitt, Millennium & Copthorne Hotels, Nichols, Rio Tinto, RSA Insurance Group, Schroders, Spirent Communications, St. Modwen Properties, Standard Chartered QUARTERLY EX-DIVIDEND DATE Barclays, JPMorgan Claverhouse Inv Trust, Unilever INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS Balance of Trade (US) (13:30) Crude Oil Inventories (US) (15:30) MBA Mortgage Applications (US) (12:00) Treasury Budget Statement (US) (19:00) Q2 Grupo Clarin S.A. GDR (Reg S), Smurfit Kappa Group GMS Fieldbury, Gartmore European Inv Trust FINALS Greenko Group IMSS Micro Focus International Plc, Thomas Cook Group SPECIAL EX-DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE Heritage Oil EGMS Indian Energy AGMS Bedford Row VCT, Chapelthorpe, Datatec Ltd. (DI), Edge Performance VCT 'C' Shares, Edge Performance VCT 'D' Shares, Edge Performance VCT 'E' Shares, Edge Performance VCT 'F' Shares, IQ Holdings, Mountview Estate TRADING ANNOUNCEMENTS Harvey Nash Group, Standard Life UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS BoE Inflation Report (09:30) Claimant Count Rate (09:30) Unemployment Rate (09:30) FINAL EX-DIVIDEND DATE BlueStar SecuTech, BT Group, Cambium Global Timberland Ltd., City of London PR, DS Smith, Greene King, Northumbrian Water Group, Pennon Group