UBS expects a "tough" first quarter from Experian

7th Jul 2014 11:09

Credit reporting group Experian is expected to report a "tough" first quarter this week, according to UBS which has trimmed its target price for the stock from 1,250p to 1,200p.Ahead of the company's update on Friday, however, the bank repeated its 'buy' recommendation for the stock.UBS predicts that group organic revenues in the three months to June 30th will have grown by just 0-1%, compared with 5% growth in the second half of 2013.Growth is forecast to be held back by an estimated 2% decline in North America (from +1% in the fourth quarter), which represents 50% of group revenue, and a slowdown in growth to 1% (from +9% in the fourth quarter) in Latin America, which accounts for 19% of group sales.Revenue growth trends are expected to be "more stable" in the UK & Ireland at 7% (Q4: +7%) and -1% in Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA) and Asia Pacific (Q4: -3%).UBS has trimmed its earnings forecasts for the next three years by 2-3% to reflect "more cautious organic assumptions as we take a more conservative view of phasing of growth improvement through the rest of this year".The stock was 0.3% lower at 1,018p by 10:52 on Monday.BC