Tuesday preview: Whitbread, Bellway, CBI survey

18th Oct 2010 16:38

Hotels to coffee shops operator Whitbread announces its second quarter results on Tuesday. At the beginning of September the group said like for like sales growth at the company had accelerated in the 24 weeks to 19 August compared to the second quarter performance, so the market will be looking to see whether the momentum has been maintained.Charles Stanley thinks profit before tax will rise to £150m from £118m at the halfway stage last year. The broker has pencilled in a figure of 60p for EPS, up from 47.3p last year, and thinks the interim dividend will be nudged above 10p to 10.1p, versus 9.65p last year. "An update is expected to be provided on Premier Inn's new room pipeline," Charles Stanley reckons. "A progress report is also anticipated on fledgling operations in the Dubai and India," it added.Nomura Securities is a tad more optimistic, going for profit before tax of £152m, while Panmure Gordon undercuts Charles Stanley's estimate with a forecast of £145.5m and earnings per share of 58.1p. Panmure Gordon thinks the divi will be rounded up to 10p. "We expect comments on current trading to highlight continued strong trading momentum since the pre-close update and we think the stock offers good forecast upgrade potential in the near term," Panmure Gordon said.The broker reckons first half revenue will grow 14.0% from a year earlier to £801.8m but warns that comparatives get harder for Whitbread in the second half.Housebuilder Bellway releases full-year figures for the year to end-July. Market consensus is for profit before tax of £43.65m on sales of £749.0m.Recent data from the UK housing market has been cloudy, not to say contradictory, and comments from Bellway accompanying its figures will be closely scrutinised."Bellway has said that it believes the housing market has returned to more normal trends during 2010 with a strong spring selling season followed by a slower summer. It therefore expected to see a pick up in the autumn.," notes Panmure Gordon. "It will no doubt have seen some pick-up although it is likely that this has been more muted in our opinion. At the time of the August statement the group had a strong order book at £421m (+14% year on year) which made it 50% complete from a target volume perspective. This will have advanced since August to between 55% and 60% in our view. The company has more active sites available this year and therefore it believes that it can grow volumes by anything up to 10% in the year to July 2011. We have a more muted 7% volume increase in our models, and have had for some time given the economic uncertainties," the broker added.The broker is a smidgen below market consensus with its pre-tax profit forecast of £43.0m. It forecasts earnings per share of 25.7p, up 46% year on year, and a 10% increase in the dividend to 9.9p. Net asset value per share is seen rising 2.0% from a year earlier to 857p.The Confederation of British Industry (CBI) will release its industrial trends survey for October and the expectation is that the climate has deteriorated further. The balance of manufacturers reporting that their orders are at normal levels is expected to ease to -20% from -17% in September.The relatively weakness of the pound has not, judging by the most recent trade figures, led to much of an export bonanza while much of the recent boost to manufacturers' order books has been attributed to restocking after customers ran down inventories during the credit crunch.INTERIMSWhitbreadINTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATEFrench Connection GroupINTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSABC Consumer Confidence (US) (22:00)Balance of Trade (EU) (10:00)Building Permits (US) (13:30)Current Account (EU) (09:00)Construction Output (10:00) (EU)Housing Starts (US) (13:30)RBA Interest Rate Minutes (AUS) (00:00)ZEW Survey (EU) (10:00)ZEW Survey (GER) (10:00)Q3Bank of America Corp.FINALSBellway, Next Fifteen Communications, Renewable Energy Generation Ltd.IMSSJupiter Fund Management EGMSTurk Ekonomi GDR Bankasi AS GDR (Reg S)AGMSBrooks Macdonald Group, Impala Platinum Holdings Ltd.UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSConsumer Price Index (09:30)Retail Price Index (09:30)CBI Business Optimism (11:00)CBI Trends Total Orders (11:00)FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATEDiageo