Tuesday preview: UK deficit shrinking further, PSNB should show

20th Jul 2015 16:40

(ShareCast News) - A further considerable improvement in UK public finances should be the main item of interest for macroeconomic data hounds on Tuesday, in an otherwise very quiet day for scheduled economic data.The UK public sector net borrowing figures for June will be unveiled by the Office for National Statistics at 09.30 BST.UK PSNB excluding banks is forecast to be around £8.9bn for the last month, considerably improved from the £10.1bn published for May, which was lowest level since mid-2007.Capital Economics has predicted a sub-consensus £8bn print on Tuesday, reflecting the good start to the fiscal year, the Chancellor's decision to tighten fiscal policy more than the coalition had planned this year and potential early savings found by government departments.Although the deficit has more than halved, the Treasury noted, at 5% it is still one of the highest in the developed world and in the summer Budget, the Office for Budget Responsibility revised down its forecast for borrowing this year from £75.9bn to £69.5bn."June's public finance figures look set to show much lower borrowing than a year ago as departments cut spending immediately after the election," UK economist Vicky Redwood said.She added: "The good trend in borrowing should persist in June, since government departments may have already begun to find the £3bn extra savings that the Chancellor asked them to deliver this year."Company announcementsJune's figures will also register the government's sale of £750m of its stake in Royal Mail in June, although this will not lower borrowing only debt. Pertinently enough, Royal Mail is due to publish an update on its first quarter on Tuesday morning.With Q1 a fairly "small" quarter for Royal Mail, UBS said it expects trends to be in-line with forecasts for the full year, which are for letter volumes to be down 4% and letter revenue down 3%; while parcel volumes are guided to rise 1.5% and revenue 0.5% for the full year."We believe the market will be focused on any change in tone regarding the state of the parcel market - which has been generally cautious on both volumes and price," UBS said.Elsewhere, UBS predicts a first-quarter statement from Cable & Wireless Communications should be in line with full year targets, with some news on the integration of CWC and Columbus after March's acquisition.Hit by Nigerian volatility, annual profits from PZ Cussons are widely expected to fall to £108m-£110m before tax, according to guidance from the company. On the upside, Numis said it confidently expected "year no 42 of dividend growth - an amazing record", with 5.39p final payout giving an annual payment of 8p per share.Among the recently volatile miners, Citi previewed the second-quarter update from Petropavlovsk, which is targetting a significant decrease in its total average cash costs of production in 2015 is expected to have produced 140,000 oz, up from 113,000 oz in the first quarter."First half production is being restrained by the need for stripping at Pioneer to access higher grades. Higher grades and tonnage in H2 should see the group producing above 430k oz in that half compared to the 253k oz which we expect POG produced in H1."Tuesday 21 July UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSPublic Sector Finances (09:30)INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICUS Industrial Production & Capacity Utilizaton RevisionsFINALSIG Group, PZ CussonsINTERIMSCroda International, SynecticsIMSS & TRADING ANNOUNCEMENTSAO World, Cable & Wireless Communications, Royal Mail, National Grid, Petropavlovsk, Science In Sport, Synety Group, VictrexINTERNATIONAL EARNINGSMicrosoft Corp, Novartis, SAP, Verizon Communications, ZalandoOPERATIONAL REVIEWBHP BillitonANNUAL REPORTPrivate & Commercial Finance GroupAGMSAO World, Big Yellow Group, British Land Company, Cable & Wireless Communications, HICL Infrastructure Company Ltd, Investec Structured Products Calculus VCT, Investec Structured Products Calculus VCT 'C' Shares, JPMorgan European Inv Trust Growth Shares, National Grid, Northcote Energy, Quantum Pharma, Red Leopard Holdings, TR Property Inv Trust, Ventus 2 VCT, Ventus VCT, VP