Tuesday preview: Debenhams, Carnival and Ubisense

19th Sep 2011 15:44

Department store chain Debenhams will attempt to regain its mojo on Tuesday as it issues its pre-close statement. Figures from the British Retail Consortium suggest that August was a rough month for the high street, even for those bits of it that were not being looted, but Singer Capital Markets thinks that Debenhams' sales mix should have afforded it some protection from the worst of the consumer sentiment downturn. "As a guide for August sales we use the following assumptions :- Womenswear -8% (20% of sales), Health & Beauty +1% (20%), Menswear +1% (18%), Accessories -2% (12%), Home -9% (10%), Kidswear -3% (8%), Lingerie -3% (7%), Other -5% (5%). What this mix analysis highlights is good protection from a weak Womenswear market in August, resulting in a UK LFL [like-for-like] estimate of c-3.5% (c-3% overall inc Magasin). This is equivalent to a 5% slump versus growth in Mar-June," Singer said. "Assuming growth in July of say +2.5% LFL would imply a marginal LFL decline since the last update, taking H2 [second half] to +1.0% LFL, a downgrade of 0.5% (£5-6m) versus our previous FY [full-year] assumption. The margin may also be squeezed given the bigger reductions needed to complete final clearance," the broker added.Cruise ship operator Carnival's third-quarter figures cover the western hemisphere's summer months, so the numbers would normally be expected to be buoyant, but Mediterranean cruises may have seen softer demand than usual, because of concerns about the political situation in the Middle East and Africa. On the bright side, though fuel prices at the petrol pump have been soaring, the price of the fuel Carnival buys by the boat-load has been relatively stable.Market expectations are for quarterly earnings per share of $1.64 on revenue of $4.9bn, up from earnings per share of $1.62 on revenue of $4.43bn in the corresponding quarter of last year.Software firm Ubisense is not a name that will be known to the vast majority of stock market watchers, as the company only floated back in June.The company's systems track assets in real-time, to the delight of car fleet owners who use the technology. Broker Canaccord is expecting the group's maiden interim results will see the company making a major step towards fulfilling the broker's full-year forecasts. The broker predicts half-year revenue of £10.7m, and earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation of £0.3m, while net cash is expected to loiter around £8.0m."H1 [first half] revenue in both the Real-Time Location System (RTLS) and Geospatial divisions should be helped by some deployments and contracts being delayed from H2/10 ... We also expect additional RTLS contract momentum in H1, as companies increasingly see the value in Ubisense's technology," the broker said. It is now taking projects less than 12 months to provide a return on investment, the broker noted. INTERIMS3Legs Resources, Dolphin Capital Investors Ltd., KBC Advanced Technologies, Optimal Pay, Symphony Environmental Technologies, TEG Group, Ubisense Group Plc, VphaseINTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATECapital & Counties Properties , First Quantum Minerals Ltd.QUARTERLY PAYMENT DATEBPINTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSNationwide Department Store Sales (JPN)Convenience Store Sales (JPN)Producer Price Index (GER) (07:00)ZEW Survey (EU) (10:00)ZEW Survey (GER) (10:00)Building Permits (US) (13:30)Housing Starts (US) (13:30)Q3CarnivalGMSBerkeley Resources Ltd. (DI)FINALSWilmington GroupIMSSPorvairTRADING STATEMENTDebenhamsEGMSAlternative Asset Opportunities PCC Ltd.AGMS3Legs Resources, Blinkx, Daejan Holdings, Downing Structured Opportunities VCT 1, F&C Managed Portfolio Trust Growth Shares, HML Holdings, ILX Group, Marwyn Value Investors Ltd., Park Group, Sirius MineralsTRADING ANNOUNCEMENTSDolphin Capital Investors Ltd.Q1Real Estate Credit Investments PCC Ltd