Tuesday preview: BG, Thomas Cook, McBride

7th Feb 2011 15:14

Results from the two giants of the UK oil sector, BP and Royal Dutch Shell, met with lukewarm responses last week which may fill BG Group shareholders with a frisson of foreboding ahead of the oil and gas group's fourth quarter figures on Tuesday.Broker Charles Stanley is expecting fourth quarter net income to dip to $950m from $967m the year before, and reckons the group will declare a dividend of 11.2 cents, which would take the full year divi up to 21 cents."In the Exploration & Production division, it has been a slow year in terms of production but volumes should move ahead in Q4 [fourth quarter] compared to Q3. Also, pricing, especially UK gas prices, should help to move the Q4 profit ahead to about $1bn compared to $0.8bn in Q3," Charles Stanley said."In Q3 there was an exceptionally strong profit contribution of $725m from liquefied natural gas (LNG) which is not expected to repeat in Q4. LNG profit guidance is $1.8- 2bn for 2010 and a more normal $500m contribution is expected in Q4," the broker added.The group is also set to make a strategy presentation to the investment community, and here Charles Stanley expects the group to reiterate production guidance of 6 - 8% per annum growth through to 2020. Just as shareholders in BG Group will have looked at the results of BP and Shell with interest, so will holders of Thomas Cook shares have taken note of the statement last week by fellow package tour operator TUI Travel that the civil unrest in North Africa could put a £25m to £30m dent in TUI's first quarter results.Numis Securities notes that Egypt and Tunisia account for around 8% of Thomas Cook's total sales but analyst Wyn Ellis thinks most holidaymakers planning to go to Thomas Cook destinations in either of those countries will, instead, switch their bookings to some other destination in the Thomas Cook brochure.The broker thinks Thomas Cook will report a smaller fourth quarter loss for 2010 than it suffered in the final quarter of 2009, helped by an upturn in demand from Germany. McBride, which makes own label products for retailers, warned at the beginning of January that full year performance could be at the lower end of its expectations. On Tuesday, the company gives the half-time score with its interim results, which should give a clue as to how close to the bottom end the full year results are likely to be.Panmure Gordon has forecast a 1% decline in revenues to £408m and a 26.5% fall in profit before tax to £16.5m, giving an earnings per share of 6.8p."Input cost pressures are likely to remain a significant headwind for McBride and should provide a test of the recently implemented procedures to recover costs more quickly. Promotional activity remains high in personal care and in some categories in Household such as "Auto dish wash" but any further insight into the current promotional environment would be useful," Panmure Gordon said.It should be fairly quiet on the economic front, with just the January updates from the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) and the British Retail Consortium (BRC) expected overnight. The RICS House Price Balance for January is expected to improve a tad from December's -39% to -38%. The figure measures the balance of surveyors reporting rising prices versus those reporting falls, so a reading of -38% indicates that out of every 100 surveyors polled, 38 more reporting price falls than reported price rises.INTERIMSMcbrideQUARTERLY EX-DIVIDEND DATEIBM Corp.INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSBankruptcies (JPN)Bank of France Business Sentiment (FRA) (07:30)Trade Balance (FRA) (07:45)Industrial Production (GER) (11:00)NFIB Small Business Optimism (US) (12:30)Q4BG Group, Wolfson MicroelectronicsGMSMelrose ResourcesFINALSBeazley, Low & Bonar, Patsystems, Wolfson Microelectronics, XstrataIMSSMcbride, Thomas Cook GroupAGMSRenovo Group, VictrexUK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSBRC Retail Sales Monitor (00:01)RICS House Price Balance (00:01)