Thursday preview: Pub groups, Autonomy

15th Jul 2009 16:32

Investors are in danger of becoming punch drunk from a succession of trading updates from pub groups this week, although the statements thus far from Young & Co. and JD Wetherspoon have been broadly upbeat, especially so in the case of Wetherspoon.Those two companies will only served to have raised the bar for Mitchells & Butlers (M&B), Enterprise Inns and Fuller, Smith & Turner, all of which make trading statements on Thursday.All Bar One and Harvester chains owner Mitchells & Butler has a new man at the helm after the previous chief executive officer, Tim Clarke, fell on his sword as a result of the company's disastrous interest rate hedging activities. New chief executive officer, Adam Fowle, gets his first chance to publicly outline his strategy for the company which may include his attitutude towards asset disposals to reduce debt.Trading in the 16 weeks to mid-May was robust, with like for like sales up 1.5%. Given the weather in June was a lot better this year than it was in 2008 it would be surprising if this rate of improvement had not at least been maintained since then. Things are likely to have been tougher at Enterprise Inns. The cash strapped operator may give an update on its disposals programme, with broker KBC Peel Hunt expecting the amount raised from pub sales to be about halfway between the £44m announced at the interim results in May and KBC's target for the year of £80m.Fuller, Smith & Turner is probably the nearest counterpart to Young & Co., which published a trading statement on Tuesday. Both operate breweries as well as pub chains, both have a stronger reliance on the more resilient ale market, and both operate pubs located in and around the London area.Young's said managed house sales were up 0.1% on a like for like basis, which Fuller should be able to beat in its managed estate, but performance of the tenanted estate is likely to be less pleasing, with a dip in like for like sales.Data search software specialist Autonomy releases second quarter figures which should not contain too many surprises given the company issued a trading update barely a week ago. The group said it expects to report record second quarter results, with revenues in line with current estimates and earnings per shares (adjusted) ahead of forecasts.Despite this guidance there is still a small divergence of opinions among the broking community. Singer Capital Markets is forecasting second quarter revenue of $195.7m, while Piper Jaffray is going for $201m.Singer is in line with consensus in expecting fully diluted earnings per share of $0.25.The second quarter will see a full contribution for the first time from recently acquired Interwoven. Singer is expecting Interwoven to have added $49.5m to revenue, while Citigroup said it is looking for an update from management on the cross-selling opportunities. "Feedback during the quarter has been encouraging and we would expect this to be reflected in 2Q commentary," Citi said."There is always great interest in the backlog and we expect a stable backlog around $140m. In Q1 deferred revenues (pro-forma) declined by 6% to $163.7m, as IWOV [Interwoven] clients deferred orders due to uncertainty about the combined product roadmap - this should come back in Q2 and beyond," Citi opined.Thursday July 16QUARTERLY EX-DIVIDEND DATECaterpillarINTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSInitial Jobless Claims (US) (13:30)Philadelphia Fed Index (US) (15:00)NAHB Housing Market Index (18:00)Tertiary Industry Index (JPN)Consumer Price Index (FRA) (07:45)INTERIMSAutonomyFINALSSports Direct InternationalTRADING STATEMENTSDairy Crest, Hilton Food Group, Enterprise Inns, Mitchells & ButlersAGMSFuller, Smith & Turner, First Group, Frontera Resources Corporation, Hamworthy, JPMorgan European Inv Trust Growth Shares, JPMorgan European Inv Trust Income Shares, JZ Capital Partners, Molectra Group Ltd., Mothercare, Personal Assets Trust, SVM UK Active Fund, UTEK Corporation, YCO DeuxmilFINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATEYoung & Co's Brewery 'A'