Thursday preview: Astra, BSkyB, Britvic

26th Jan 2011 15:55

Drugs giant AstraZeneca reports fourth quarter and full year results on Thursday. Consensus forecasts are for full year pre-tax profits of £7.48bn on sales of £20.96bn. "In the face of a looming off-patent cliff attention is likely to focus, initially at least, on confirmation of an enhanced share buy-back programme," reckons broker Charles Stanley. "AstraZeneca has maintained a tight control on both costs and working capital and despite the substantial acquisition of Medimmune, has returned its balance sheet to a position of net cash. This net cash, coupled with a good track record of returning excess funds to shareholders we strongly suspect that the existing share buy-back programme will be accelerated," the broker predicted.Charles Stanley is forecasting full year net income of $33.5bn, up from $32.8bn last year, earnings per share of 6.60p (6.32p) and a total dividend of 2.70p (2.30p)."We expect AstraZeneca to deliver a relatively cautious outlook reflecting an estimated $300m impact from US healthcare reform in addition to the headwind created by European price cuts as part of region-wide austerity measures," the broker added.Looking at just the fourth quarter, Panmure Gordon predicts a 5.7% year on year dip in revenue to $8,434m, against consensus of $8,316m, and a 7% decline in earnings per share (EPS) to $1.00, versus consensus of $0.89. Core EPS is tipped to fall 4.7% to $1.35, versus consensus of $1.31.The broker noted that the company is going up against tough comparatives, as the fourth quarter 2009 figures were boosted by the H1N1 flu virus pandemic.Financial house Matrix plumps for fourth quarter sales of $8.3bn "bolstered by Crestor, which has seen solid growth, but pared back by ongoing generic erosion." For pre-tax profit it has pencilled in $2.5bn and core EPS of $1.77."AstraZeneca will also provide guidance for 2011, a year that will not only be further impacted by generics, but also one in which there will be further pricing pressure as key brands go generic for competitors, including Pfizer's Lipitor, which competes with Crestor in the statin market. This event will no doubt put pricing pressure on Crestor, which could potentially see a review this year related to kidney toxicity issues seen in clinical trials reported last year (PLANET 1 and PLANET 2 studies)," Matrix noted.The News Corporation bid for BSkyB has put the pay-TV broadcaster firmly in the spotlight, and Thursday's interim results should demonstrate why Rupert Murdoch is so keen to get his hands on the 60% or so of the company his News Corp does not already own.Charles Stanley thinks revenue will rise to £3,125m from £2,873m last year, with earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation climbing to £670m from £567m. Pre-tax profit is forecast to rise to £475m from £358m, and loyal shareholders may be rewarded with a full year dividend of 8.3p, up from 7.9p last year."Operational performance of the business is expected to have remained strong during the second quarter, with continued buoyant demand for its key products and services. We forecast a net 150,000 increase in the total number of subscribers, taking the total to 10.1m. Sales of additional products including Sky+HD, Multiroom, Broadband and Telephony are all likely to have been good. Churn is expected to have remained around the company's long term target of 10%. We forecast a c.10% increase in average revenue per user to £541, driven by the 5% price increase taken in 2010 and take-up of additional products," Charles Stanley said.Soft drinks firm Britvic will do well to report first quarter revenue growth for its core British and Irish operations given the tough comparatives it faces from the preceding year.Nomura notes that a year ago it reported year on year growth of 15% in the first quarter, but the comparatives get less demanding from the second quarter onwards."We see the momentum picking up in Q2 as the comp gets easier (+3%). We still see underlying revenue growth of 5% pa achievable in the GB and French operations, both in 2011 and the medium term. Ireland remains more challenging, but profitability here should be underpinned by further restructuring," the Japanese broker said.INTERIMSBritish Sky Broadcasting Group, CPL Resources, EagaINTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATEBrulines Group, Cable & Wireless Worldwide, Dairy Crest Group, Solid State, United Carpets GroupINTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSOverall Household Spending (JPN)Jobless Rate (JPN)Consumer Prices Index (JPN)Retail Sales (JPN)Consumer Confidence Confidence Indicator (FRA) (07:45)Business Climate Indicator (EU) (10:00)Consumer Confidence (EU) (10:00)Economic Confidence (EU) (10:00)Industrial Confidence (EU) (10:00)Service Sector Confidence (EU) (10:00)Continuing Claims (US) (13:30)Initial Jobless Claims (US) (13:30)Chicago Fed National Activity Index (US) (13:30)Durable Goods Orders (US) (13:30)Pending Homes Sales (US) (15:00)Q3Vedanta ResourcesQ4AstraZenecaFINALSAstraZenecaIMSSHansen Transmissions International NV (DI), Mitchells & ButlersEGMSRGI International Ltd., Talvivaara Mining CompanyAGMSBritvic, Dewhurst, Intandem Films, ITE Group, Lonmin, Mitchells & Butlers, WichfordTRADING ANNOUNCEMENTSBritvic, Cairn Energy, Tullow OilUK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSHometrack Housing Survey (00:01)CBI Distributive Trades Surveys (11:00)FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATEAberdeen Asset Management, Alternative Networks