Private sector downturn to ease slightly, CBI survey finds

2nd Mar 2026 07:05

(Sharecast News) - Business activity across the UK's private sector is expected to fall over the next three months, according to a survey from the Confederation of British Industry released on Monday, though business pessimism has eased significantly.

The CBI's latest Growth Indicator showed that most private sector firms expect activity to weaken over the coming quarter, with the weighted balance - those predicting an increase minus those predicting a decrease - coming in at -13%.

Nevertheless, the downturn is set to ease again after a sharper fall in business activity in the three months to February (-19%) and an even steeper decline in the three months to January (-33%).

Looking ahead, firms expect distribution sales and manufacturing output to fall (balances of 36% and -12% respectively). However, the decline in volumes across the services sector will be more muted (-5%), as sharp declines in consumer services activity (-38%) are partly offset by anticipated improvements among business and professional services firms (+4%).

"While private sector firms still expect activity to fall over the next three months, the improvement in the outlook is notable - with expectations at their least negative since November 2024. Nevertheless, expectations remain well below their long-run average, underscoring the fact that firms continue to face a challenging trading environment," said the CBI's economic surveys and data manager Charlotte Dendy.

"Businesses continue to highlight the impact of recent Budgets on costs, alongside weak customer confidence and a broader lack of demand indicating that the mood remains fragile."