DfT's cancelled ticketing app a "clear positive" for Trainline, says JP Morgan

15th Dec 2023 07:40

(Sharecast News) - News that the Department for Transport has canned plans to create a Great British Railways ticketing website and app sent shares in booking platform Trainline to a yearly high on Friday.

Shares were up 16.5% at 331p by 0858 GMT, a level not seen since November 2022, helped by further by positive comments from Barclays and JP Morgan.

In an unexpected release on Thursday, the DfT announced it was pulling the proposals first outlined in May 2021 to create a Great British Railways ticket retailing website and app.

"We are confirming that we are not pursuing plans to deliver a centralised Great British Railways online rail ticket retailer," the DfT said.

"Train operators will continue to retail to passengers online alongside existing third-party retailers while we develop measures to spur further competition in the online rail ticket retail market to make things better for passengers."

Trainline had faced growing investor concern regarding the potential emergence of a new, online retail competitor in the UK, with its 62% market share under threat, according to analysts at JP Morgan.

In a research report on Friday, the bank said: "The proposed withdrawal removes a key overhang to Trainline's investment case, where building investor concerns have been around changes in UK rail regulation (a new GBR app) which drove a de-rating relative to classified peers, and overshadowed strong passenger momentum and improved operational delivery, in our view."

The bank acknowledged that some investors will likely be concerned about the emergence of Uber as an online ticket aggregator. However, "indications continue to suggest little in-roads on traffic share to-date, and we expect investor focus to now turn to Trainline's strong passenger momentum and improved operational delivery."

JP Morgan reiterated its 'overweight' position and 350p target price for the stock.

Barclays, meanwhile, said the news was a "thesis-changer" as it upgraded its rating to 'equal weight' from 'underweight' and lifted its target price to 355p from 270p.