Chicago Fed national activity index turns negative

23rd Mar 2026 13:27

(Sharecast News) - The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) pulled back in February after hitting an 11-month high the previous month, with three of its four main indicators dropping back into negative territory.

The CFNAI came in at -0.11 for last month, down from +0.20 in January, which was the first positive reading in six months and the highest since February 2025.

The Chicago Fed said its CFNAI Diffusion Index, which is also a three-month moving average, fell to -0.17 from -0.13.

The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 monthly indicators of national economic activity, and so can be used as a solid barometer of economic expansion as well as inflationary pressures.

Production and employment-related indicators both contributed negatively to the headline reading for February, turning negative after showing growth in January.

The sales, orders, and inventories category's contribution to the CFNAI was unchanged at -0.01, while the personal consumption and housing category's contribution was +0.01, up from -0.02.