Broker tips: Greggs, Wilmington

1st Oct 2026 14:50

(Sharecast News) - Analysts at Berenberg hiked their target price on bakery chain Greggs from 2,200p to 2,300p on Thursday, citing stronger‑than‑expected trading in the third quarter and a modestly improved full‑year outlook.

Berenberg said Q3 like‑for‑like sales rose 3.4%, an acceleration from 2.1% in the first half, helping total sales grow 7.7% in the period. Better weather and successful new product launches supported the improvement, while management reiterated guidance for 100 to 110 net new stores this year. Berenberg upgraded its FY26 LFL growth assumption to 2.5% from 2.0%.

With cost guidance unchanged, the combination of firmer trading and continued cost control led the broker to raise its FY26 underlying earnings forecast by around 4%, though it remained cautious on FY27 given potential inflationary pressures across food, energy and wages.

The German bank also noted Greggs' newly announced restructuring proposals, which could see four sites close over 2.5 years and around 740 roles removed, with a cash cost of roughly £60m and expected pre-tax savings of £20m across FY28/29.

Berenberg lifted its FY26 earnings per share estimates by about 5%, while making only modest outer‑year changes. It said Greggs now trades on 15x its updated earnings forecasts, with the broker highlighting long‑term support from the store‑rollout programme, a 3.7% dividend yield and an anticipated ramp‑up in free cash flow.

Panmure Liberum upgraded Greggs to 'buy' from 'hold' on Thursday and hiked its price target on the stock to 2,440p from 1,560p after the bakery chain's third-quarter trading update a day earlier.

The broker noted that like-for-like sales accelerated meaningfully through Q3, prompting management to raise guidance for FY26 pre-tax profit.

"We upgrade our profit before tax forecasts by circa 2% to reflect the stronger trading," said Panmure. "Our revised H2 PBT requirement still looks achievable despite the incremental Derby cost headwind, supported by improving underlying momentum, circa £7m of targeted H2 cost savings and moderating inflation."

Panmure said that perhaps more significant was management's expectation of around £20m of annual pre-tax cash savings from consolidating the manufacturing base, which provides meaningful support to recently moderated outer-year consensus forecasts.

"Looking ahead, earnings growth should also be supported by the new-space rollout, continued B2B momentum and lower cost inflation versus FY25, while cash generation should improve materially," Panmure said. "With the company rapidly pivoting from an earnings downgrade cycle to an upgrade cycle, alongside improving cash generation, we move back to buy with a 2,440p target price."

Canaccord Genuity lifted its target price for Wilmington to 470p from 445p on Thursday, pointing to stronger FY26 delivery, a clearer strategic shift into GRC RegTech services and early outperformance at Conversia.

The Canadian bank stated Wilmington's full‑year results were in line with guidance, with ongoing revenues up 37% year‑on‑year and growth across eight of nine core units. Adjusted pre‑tax profits rose 13% to £31.4m, though margins eased around 470 basis points due to lower‑margin M&A and investment.

At its capital markets event, Wilmington formally repositioned itself as a GRC RegTech services group, moving away from legacy media. Canaccord said the unified tech platform and expansion into regulatory intelligence and workflow tools should lift recurring revenues - currently around 40% - potentially towards 70% to 80%, improving visibility and leverage.

Canaccord, which reiterated its 'buy' rating on the stock, also highlighted coordinated AI strategies as a competitive advantage in regulated markets.

Canaccord added that Conversia continued to outperform, with 20% annualised growth and strong uptake of its SIGNO GDPR software-as-a-service platform, which has added 19,000 customers. With less than 2% market share, Canaccord said the growth runway remained significant.