Berenberg upgrades Hochschild Mining to 'buy'

27th Jul 2026 08:31

(Sharecast News) - Analysts at Berenberg lifted Hochschild Mining from 'hold' to 'buy' on Monday, pointing to what it called a compelling medium‑term growth profile, a strengthened balance sheet and an undemanding valuation offering around 28%.

Berenberg said it expects at least 32% production growth between 2025 and 2030, driven by a mix of brownfield and greenfield projects.

Stable output from its Inmaculada and San Jose assets underpin near‑term volumes, while Mara Rosa was forecast to add around 50,000 ounces gold equivelant from 2027 as its turnaround progresses. Royropata was expected to be online by late 2028, potentially contributing 100,000oz gold equivelant, with permitting under way.

Berenberg added that a final investment decision on Monte do Carmo was due in the second half of 2026, calling it a key catalyst that could lift total growth to 57% if included.

Hochschild's balance sheet has swung into a net cash position of $51m, and Berenberg expects free cash flow to lift net cash to $273m by 2028, excluding Monte do Carmo, with capex peaking over 2026 to 2028.

The German bank, which has a 570p target price on the stock, highlighted that Hochschild could raise around $1bn in debt if needed, or sell down stakes in Tiernan Gold or Aclara Resources, which it views as non‑core.

With the shares trading at 0.85x net asset value and 3.5x 2026 underlying earnings, Berenberg said recent softness in precious‑metals prices had created an attractive entry point with meaningful upside.

Reporting by Iain Gilbert at Sharecast.com