Berenberg lowers Fresnillo to 'hold', raises target price

5th Feb 2026 10:11

(Sharecast News) - Analysts at Berenberg downgraded leading silver producer Fresnillo to 'hold' from 'buy' after "a stellar run" in its share price.

Berenberg said the shares' solid performance was driven by a mixture of improved operational performance and "a material run" in gold and silver prices, with Fresnillo's role as "the world's largest primary miner of silver" benefiting from the impressive run of the silver price through a record $120 per ounce, beforefalling back to $85 per ounce currently.

"We continue to see attractive mark to market upside for Fresnillo (we envisage c19% mark to market upside for 2026E EBITDA on our base case price deck versus consensus and c4% upside at spot, and while we are c21% ahead of consensus for our 2027E EBITDA (c19% ahead at spot), we do believe that the market is largely expecting material mark to market upside momentum, and absent a material kick-on in gold and silver prices over 2026," said the German bank, which hiked its price target from 3,400p to 3,800p.

"We update our model for our revised price deck and the company's recent Q4 operational update, as well as 2026 guidance. Our estimates move higher on our higher forecasts, and we also model in some medium-term inflation and a stronger Mexican peso. We lift our multiples to 1.5x NAV and 8x 12-month forward EBITDA."

The German bank added that Fresnillo was currently trading on 1.83x net asset value and 6.9x underlying earnings.

Reporting by Iain Gilbert at Sharecast.com