Week ahead: All eyes on non-farm payrolls

25th Sep 2026 13:32

(Sharecast News) - Next week will bring results from the likes of Nike in the US and JD Wetherspoon in the UK, while on Friday, all eyes will turn to the latest US non-farm payrolls report.

Monday looks set to be a pretty quiet start to the week, but on Tuesday, first-half results from Irn-Bru maker AG Barr and Card Factory and preliminary results from Close Brothers are due in the UK, while in the US, quarterly results from Carnival, CarMax, and Concentrix will be out.

Investors will also eye the latest policy announcement from the Reserve Bank of Australia, and UK consumer credit, mortgage approvals and net lending data for August. The RBA is widely expected to hike interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.60%.

ING said: "The RBA is likely to deliver a hawkish 25bp hike on 29 September as persistent inflation pressures, resilient labour demand and higher energy costs strengthen the case for keeping policy restrictive.

"That should offer some support for AUD, which is suffering from a deterioration in the external environment but still offers solid fundamentals."

Wednesday will bring a third-quarter trading update from Greggs and the release of quarterly results from Micron, Conagra Brands and FactSet Research Systems in the US.

Dan Coatsworth, head of markets at AJ Bell, said: "The glory days for Greggs, which greeted the successful launch of its vegan sausage roll, are in the rearview mirror - but the share price has been showing some signs of life in recent months.

"A more positive than expected set of first-half results helped engender some new-found market enthusiasm for the food-on-the-go stalwart. There have been signs that product launches in areas like matcha lattes, a new chicken sausage roll and healthier protein-rich items were chiming with younger and more health-conscious age groups. Meanwhile Bake-at-Home ranges sold through partnerships with Tesco and Iceland helped provide a still nascent but nonetheless lucrative revenue stream.

"Greggs' third-quarter update should reveal how the chain is managing costs and whether the summer heatwaves' impact on purchases of baked goods alongside continuing pressures on household budgets took a bite out of sales.

"Despite the better-than-anticipated first-half performance, like-for-like growth was still sluggish, and investors will hope product innovation has helped revive momentum. Investors may also look for an update on estate expansion plans and its launch of new compact formats amid fears Greggs is reaching saturation point, creating a risk that new stores just cannibalise sales from existing ones."

Investors will also turn their attention to second-quarter GDP figures for the UK and the US, as well as US PCE data.

Neil Wilson, UK investor strategist at Saxo Markets, said the US inflation data will shape expectations for the Fed's October meeting, with markets pricing in a roughly 70% chance the FOMC votes for back-to-back rate hikes.

On the Thursday, quarterly results from Nike, Accenture, McCormick, Stolt-Nielsen and Acuity Brands will be in focus across the pond. On the macroeconomic calendar, the September S&P Global manufacturing PMI for the UK will be eyed, along with the latest initial jobless claims data in the US.

Friday will see the release of full-year results from pub chain JD Wetherspoon and the US non-farm payrolls report for September, unemployment rate and average earnings. Patrick Munnelly at Tickmill Group said: "Consensus looks for a solid 104,000 gain, with unemployment expected to tick up to 4.2%.

"That would be only a modest move from 4.14%, especially if driven by better participation. The key will be breadth. If job gains continue to broaden, wage growth stays sticky and unemployment remains low, the Fed will have little reason to push back against tighter market pricing."