ShrutiAggarwal
Member Since 8 December 2015
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Last Seen: 11 Mar '19
Posted on 21 February 2018, 12:04 AM

Bp looks fairly priced at the current levels

Topics: Analysis

Bp looks fairly priced at the current price level as we don’t see much upside into it. The stock finished trading on the London Stock exchange at 472p a share, down by 0.7% compared to the previous close. Lately, the stock has had a good correction and has corrected from the highs of 530p to the lows of 470p. Currently, the stock has been trading below its 20 DMA (20 day moving average), 50 DMA and 100 DMA of 486p, 505p and 501p respectively which also confirms the bearish trend of the stock. The immediate support for the stock lies at 466p and any breakdown below that can push the stock to the lower levels. However to resume the fresh uptrend, the stock has to surpass the resistance of 500p. Therefore, we would advise the traders or investors to avoid the stock for the time being and fresh long positions should be formed only when the stock has bottomed out at 465-466p.

Let’s throw some light on the latest FY’17 results of the company. The company announced its full year 2017 financial results a few days back on 6th February.  The company reported the full year 2017 underlying replacement cost profit at $6.1 billion compared to $2.6 billion in 2016. The company reported a robust profit of $3.4 billion in the FY’17 versus $115 million in FY’16. The company also recommenced a share buyback programme in the fourth quarter to offset the dilution of the scrip issue and repurchased 51 million ordinary shares at a cost of $343 million.  However, the company’s net debt has increased to $37.8 billion in FY’17 compared to $35.5 billion in FY’16. The net debt ratio as on 31st December 2017 was at 27% which was also well within the company’s target of 20% to 30%.

The company’s CEO Mr. Bob Dudley commented on the results, “2017 was one of the strongest years in BP’s recent history. We delivered operationally and financially, with very strong earnings in the Downstream, Upstream production up 12%, and our finances rebalanced. And we did all this while maintaining safe and reliable operations. We enter the second year of our five-year plan with real momentum, increasingly confident that we can continue to deliver growth across our business, improving cash flows and returns for shareholders out to 2021 and beyond. At the same time, we are embracing the energy transition, seeking new opportunities in a changing, lower-carbon world.”

Earnings Outlook:

The company reported FY’17 revenue at $240.0 billion compared to our estimated revenue at $223 billion. Clearly, our estimates were pretty close to the actual results of the company. However, based on the above facts, the management guidance, and my analysis, we estimate 2018 sales at $276 Billion (2017: $240 Billion) and the operating profit at $8.2 billion (Versus 2017 operating profit: $9.5 billion). We also maintain the cautious stand on estimates and have estimated 15% YOY growth in sales.

 

Valuation:

From 2013 through 2017, BP plc. has traded at an average enterprise value by sales multiple of 0.45x. That assumes a multiple of 0.6x to calculate the target price. Please find below a table of valuation outlook:

We have revised the target price from 489p to 475p and set the recommendation to neutral.


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